Think the General Election result is in the bag for David Cameron? Read on.

Polling guru Peter Kellner reckons Labour could - that's "could", not "will," - still win in 2009 or 2010.

The YouGov chief gives six good reasons in this month's Fabian Review:

Oh dear, oh dear. Another day another massive deficit with yougov. But I want to look at some of the underlying statistics that show the parties what people are talking about.

I’ll ignore the headline figures of 45% 25% 18% for fear of repeating my previous post, but will look at some of the underlying statistics. They are equally bleak.

All the press focused on was the Brown v Miliband ratings. But the real story was how we dropped back as soon as the public thought there was going to be a fight within Labour

Faced with the problem that all representative polls on the Mayoral elections give Ken a lead among Londoners, Boris Johnson's supporters at the Standard have come up with a new solution – do an unrepresentative one!

A new YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has revealed that both Labour party members and trade unionists are drastically to the left of the party leadership.

CON 39% (+3)
LAB 32% (-4)
LD 16% (nc)

Conservatives - 40% (+2)
Labour - 32% (+1)
LibDem - 17% (-1)

Baxter predicts:

CON  338 (+124)
LAB  268 (-79)
LIB  13 (-47)

For the Daily Telegraph:

Con 38 (-1)
Lab 33 (nc)
LD 18 (nc)