The consensus seems to be that Clinton and Giuliani have got their parties' nominations in hand. But Obama can win the nomination. Because for the first time since 1960, African-Americans will have a major influence over a presidential election. They will be the key deciders of who gets the Democratic nomination. At the moment, they're split between Clinton and Obama, but leaning towards Hillary. Obama needs to win over this constituency, otherwise Hillary will win the primaries in a landslide. Otherwise, this may happen: