Labour's had a disastrous set of local election results, and are under significant pressure to shift left to 'shore up the core vote' or to shift right to vigorously pursue the conservative middle class vote. I argue they should do neither.

Well possibly - we could lose the Crewe by-election!

We should perhaps start by pointing out that Labour under Tony Blair performed abysmally in the local elections of both 2000 and 2004, yet the party bounced back sufficiently to win general elections in 2001 and 2005. However the truth is that the government has not been making it easy for the electorate to vote Labour with any enthusiasm. On the doorstep the divide between the concerns of core Labour voters and those of a PR fixated cabinet have never seemed wider.

Gordon Brown stood for the leadership of the Labour party on a platform that argued that the renewal that was undertaken in order to gain power needed to be repeated if Labour was to keep power. The fact is that by successfully occupying the centre ground, by modernising and reaching out beyond its own activists Labour ended up turning the Tories into a replica of what it used to be itself – a party with a narrow base, a party obsessed about the wrong things and a party seen as old fashioned and out of touch. David Cameron understands all of this and it is why he has been busy in attempting (with, as last week’s results indicate, some considerable success) to re-brand and re-position today’s Tory party. Conservatives have finally woken up to the fact that in order to be taken seriously they will need to be seen as the future, to be heralded as the bearers of hope and the deliverers of change.

The problem with all of this is takes Cameron and his party into unchartered waters. The history of the Tory party is centred on the core belief that government and politics can't actually change people’s lives all that much. Tory philosophy has long rejected any talk about the strength and virtue of common endeavour or about the need to ensure that wealth and opportunity are placed in the hands of the many not the few.

This is why the real challenge to the continuation of the pursuit of a progressive agenda comes not from a resurgent Tory party but from the defeatists, pessimists and cynics that exist within the Labour party itself. If Labour is to secure an unprecedented fourth term then it must set about renewing itself, its message and its organisation. A renewed party needs to reflect the aspirations of ordinary people but it also needs to be realistic about the challenges that lie ahead.

Telling the electorate that things are much better than they were in 1997 simply does not cut any mustard anymore (in fact it hasn’t done for several years). Public services in Britain are in the process of being revived but there are still some Labour MPs, councillors and members who wish not revival but reversal.

If a fourth term is to be achieved Labour must continue with its progressive reform package, stop fretting about the opinion polls but above all it must not (as so often it has in the past) end up defeating itself.

The sum of all changes in voter choice in limited local government elections, plus a much closer run thing in London, is clearly a swing from Labour to the Tories. But this simple sum hides a multitude of calculations.

1.  "Arrogant pride, or presumption."

2.  "Overbearing pride evidenced by a superior manner toward inferiors."

At least Labour has got the first thing right – not trying to talk up the result. And these results should persuade MPs that they can not afford the indulgence of a headless chicken tailspin.

Everybody knows there will be no change of leadership. Nobody serious wants to reopen the question, and the party’s big hitters will make that clear. The political challenge which Labour faces arises from the accumulated grievances of having been in power for eleven years, exacerbated by an economic downturn. None of that would change with a different personality in charge.

So what needs to change?

We seemed to have bucked the trend in Merseyside by gaining two seats in St Helens and four in Liverpool.  The rest of the country is worrying, but we hope that there is a re-think on some more progessive policies.  Lets hope we can still win in London.

Wiseman

In the face of multiple posts about 10p Tax Bands, the economy, striking teachers and refinery workers, I think we should spend a minute to support our Councillors and candidates for next weeks Local Elections.

We must learn the lessons

John McDonnell
Comment is Free

The trend in recent years has been for Labour to dip at local elections, but to bounce back at general elections. However this cycle is unsustainable: at each election that dip is getting deeper, and our recovery less. On the basis of last night, the best we could hope for is a hung parliament at the next election.

i've heard we have a good chance in Slough

A crucial by-election will take place in December in Kentish Town, Camden.

By-Elections held on September 28th: