"It doesn't mean Obama will win 50 states, obviously. But it does mean a commitment to 1) an expanded presidential battleground, 2) long-term party building, and 3) attention to the down-ballot races that will ultimately decide whether the Obama Agenda will see the light of day. The more seats Obama's Democratic Party can amass in the House and in the Senate, the stronger his influence and the bolder his legislation can be. In other words, this is much bigger than the presidential race, and I'm extremely encouraged that a presidential campaign has decided to take such a broad approach to these coming elections."

The sum of all changes in voter choice in limited local government elections, plus a much closer run thing in London, is clearly a swing from Labour to the Tories. But this simple sum hides a multitude of calculations.

At least Labour has got the first thing right – not trying to talk up the result. And these results should persuade MPs that they can not afford the indulgence of a headless chicken tailspin.

Everybody knows there will be no change of leadership. Nobody serious wants to reopen the question, and the party’s big hitters will make that clear. The political challenge which Labour faces arises from the accumulated grievances of having been in power for eleven years, exacerbated by an economic downturn. None of that would change with a different personality in charge.

So what needs to change?

I don't mind David Cameron getting over-confident and bragging at the 19th hole after yesterday's results outside London.

Frank Field MP and many others throughout the Party almost got the job done, as thankfully Gordon Brown finally had the sense to promise to compensate those poorest people losing out from the abolition of the 10p tax rate. Time will tell if they get anywhere near adequately compensating the lowest earners. People are right to be sceptical and we must be vigilant after this catastrophe.

Michael Portillo's column in the Sunday Times reflects on why the Conservatives have not opened up a significant lead in the opinion polls: the opposition's performance on Northern Rock exposes doubts about whether they are ready to govern.

Compass and Progress are pleased to invite you to a crucial discussion on Labour's future direction entitled: Winning a fourth term: what's the road to victory? The debate is kindly hosted by the LGA Labour Group. Speakers include: Rt Hon Hazel Blears MP, Secretary of State for Communities & Local Government; Rt Hon Charles Clarke MP, Former Home Secretary; Neal Lawson, Chair of Compass; Jon Trickett MP, Compass Parliamentary Spokesperson and chaired by Michael White, The Guardian (tbc). It takes place on Wednesday 19 March, 6pm-7.30pm at the Bevin Hall, Local Government House, Smith Square, London, SW1P 3HZ.

Click here to register

This is my editorial in the new year issue of the Fabian Review, which The Observer reports this morning, on how Gordon Brown should fight back in 2008. Fabian Review is published 3rd January 2008 and is a 'World After Bush' special issue. Join the Fabians to get a copy.

"We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Not Hold a General election before 2010".

"In order to have the time to fully implement its manifesto commitments and fulfil its electoral mandate the Prime Minister should consider waiting until 2010 before holding a general election".

In response to Tory spam on my blog (and others) to sign the Petition at the 10 Downing Street site calling for a “general election in 2007”, I have created the above petition. It was rejected once for being “political” and having “duplicates” so I have had to change it. It was approved this afternoon and so far it has one signature on it – Me!

http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/GenElection2010/

and the answer to the question is no, I haven’t got anything better to do…..

With the temperature high on election fever, the Labour Party has set in place its selection procedure in case the Prime Minister goes to the country this Tuesday.

What advice do people have to Gordon for the General Election? My recommendation now would be this spring, to give time for a real national debate on our manifesto. Gordon’s premiership started with a commitment to constitutional change, to restore trust in politics and make Britain fairer. Despite the almost inevitable events that have obscured that purpose over the summer, it seems to me this remains the key to the political challenges that lie ahead. Announcing an intention for a spring election when Parliament returns, following an intensive winter of debate, has the political merit that Gordon cannot be accused of bottling it, but neither can he be accused of calling an election just for a personal mandate.

As you may know, Labourhome was represented at Conference this year by Marks Hanson and Macdonald and Jag Singh - I was busy in London. However, what fed back to me from Bournemouth and from conversations I have had with Party figures in London, is that this is not going to be the election where political parties will be making a breakthrough on the web.

On the date of the general election, much depends on the character of the Prime Minister. Is he really as cautious as we think he is? However, it's certain that his team will be updating him regularly on the pros and cons of various general election dates. My analysis is below - please post your thoughts.

Dear Comrades

I have just created a new blogspot for were I am standing.  Please give feedback.

John

http://westmorlandandlonsdalelabourparty.blogspot.com/

Guess what.......like Nottingham  South we were all set to go and, er, it's been called  off.

...

According to the Guardian, Reg Keys, the bereaved father of a soldier killed in action in Iraq, is planning to field candidates against Ministers at the next General Election under a newly-formed "Spectre" Party.