Why the centre-left needs to back Brown

I have never been a big fan of Gordon Brown, though I always thought he had his good points. Within the terms of the job, he was a brilliant Chancellor of the Exchequer. I also believe that he is essentially principled and not in any sense corrupt. But, I have never been a big fan because Gordon Brown, just like Tony Blair, was one of the main architects of so-called “New Labour.” He is fervently pro-market, championed things like PFI, didn’t oppose the Iraq invasion, wants ID cards and 42 days detentions without trial, and, essentially, I see him as a kind of neo-liberal with a reforming bent and a little dash of social democracy about him. Politically there has never been much to choose between Blair and Brown, though of the two I preferred Brown. At least he lacked the frightening megalomania of Blair – at least he doesn’t see himself as The Nation personified.

It’s not a ringing endorsement of our leader and Prime Minister, I admit. But, given all of this, I want to explain why the centre-left in the Party needs to back Gordon Brown in the current circumstances.

Firstly, the current predicament of the party is not all the fault of Brown since he assumed the premiership. Clearly he has made mistakes. But it would be more logical to say that the current miserable state of the party is the fault of Brown and Blair over the past eleven years of New Labour policy and undermining of the Party, rather than Brown’s fault over the past twelve months. But why back Brown now?

This brings me to my second point, that we risk implosion of the party and meltdown in the coming general election if we allow Brown to be attacked and destroyed at this point in the electoral cycle. Most of all we all owe it to the people of this country, and to the party, to do our best to win the next general election. There is no magic formula for replacing Brown at this stage that will help us win the general election. Quite the reverse. Michael Portillo, of all people, makes this point perceptively in the weekend’s Sunday Times article (August 3, 2008). Cynics will of course suggest he has an underlying motivation for keeping Brown so that the Tories win, but a close reading of his article should deter that suspicion.

The third point is the politics of all this. Brown has moved from almost universal acclamation one year ago to his present position of facing opposition from the Blairite right and from the socialist left. But, make no mistake, the only serious opposition with any chance of winning comes from the right – I mean the Milliband’s and Purnell’s of the Parliamentary Labour Party, supported by the Blairite neo-liberal right. Many will see Milliband as not simply right, but he is in no stretch of the imagination of the Labour centre left. A leadership election at this point will not only, in my view, finish any prospect of winning the general election, it will also poison the atmosphere of the party for years to come and entrench the neo-liberal right in power under a neo-liberal party leader, before and after the election (for who could blame a Milliband or a Purnell for losing the coming general election). For a centre-left candidate to have any prospect of winning the leadership, and, just as important, to have any chance of meaningful democratic reform and rejuvenation of the Party, we must wait until after the general election when we will either (optimistically) be back in power – in which case Brown would be unassailable, or (perhaps more likely) be out of power but not destroyed as a political force – in which case the Party can take its time and have a proper debate about policy and leadership, not the current headlong panic.

Moreover, since Brown is currently being attacked primarily by the far right of our Party he will become rather more dependent upon the centre-left and the Trade Unions, and the repulsing of such an attack means that social democracy has some hope of being back upon the political agenda (strengthened by a crisis of capitalism) for the first time in perhaps thirty years.

The last point is that, for all his faults, Brown is a real political heavyweight and it is difficult to see any realistic prospect of any of the current theoretical contenders being able to match Brown in that respect – not Milliband, not Purnell, not Harman, Balls, or Cooper.

This is why I believe it is logical and right in the present circumstances for the left and centre of the party to back Brown’s premiership. Any other course at the moment will make things worse for our movement and for the people of this country.



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Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#1)

I lost my Council seat (Macclesfield Town) at the last Election and while I echo your sentiments of loyalty and your rounded analysis I disagree. Gordon Brown was a big vote loser on the doorstep and i'm afraid the 10p tax fiasco was a blunder that he will not be forgiven for as will the taxing old cars which will hit the core vote once again. The people have made their minds up about gordon and he's an electoral liability. I regard myself as a left winger and to suggest it's just the blairite wing that wants a change is just folly. I give the country more credit than to suggest a Leadership Election now will ruin Labour's election winning chances. The Country wants a change from Blair-Brown and a more decisive Leader and direction. The polls were dire when Major took over from Thatcher two years before the Election and being new he had a Honeymoon period so why not try the same. We lost 1600 of the votes 2200 we polled in 2004 at the last Council Elections so while a Leader change may not be ideal, personally I think if we don't try we are in danger of meltdown. Good article but the mood on the doorstep tells me that Gordon needs to go.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#3)

I understand and appreciate your comments very much. I realise that opposition to Brown is not only coming from the far right. I also agree that the policy of taxing old cars is completely stupid and will be very damaging to our support, as is the idea of charging £75 for overfilling your wheely bin (and I hope that those in a position to do something about it might take note...).

It is a fine judgement in many ways, but though I am firmly of the left my view is that ditching Brown at this stage will only make things worse - and I think there is some evidence from the polls to suggest this.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#4)

I agree with TRUSSMAN5; the vibes I have had on the doorstep and from talking to 'non-political' friends, family and colleagues is that they have decided they don't like Brown and they don't want to vote for him. Their minds are made up. It's that simple, and at the end of the day they, as voters, get the last word at the ballot box. Not you or me.

As for the opinion polls, I don't agree with your analysis. It's true that the likely alternatives don't show up any better in opinion polls. But I don't think that means anything - at this stage, all the polls show is the extent of name recognition. Regrettably, I've reached the conclusion that the present incumbent, while a decent and worthy individual, doesn't have the qualities that the job of PM requires in the modern era. By contrast, I think several of the alternatives do have those qualities, and I think our opinion poll ratings would improve with a change of leadership.

I think many LabourHome contributors are in denial at the moment. Our poll ratings are our lowest since the introduction of opinion polling, and lower than the Tories in their mid-1990s nadir. We could realistically be looking at the loss of two-thirds of the PLP at the next election, and a decade or more of a right-wing Tory government.

There is a widespread feeling in the party that things have to change. I'm unapologetically on the right wing of the party, but I know that people of all persuasions - left, centre, old Labour, new Labour, all know we can't go on like this.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#5)

What do you think we should do about VED then FR?

 

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#6)

Jkitleft

I think a punitive tax like this on old cars is intrinsically unfair. It affects the poorest, almost by definition. It is also unfair to punish someone for buying something after they have bought it. A measure like this should have a lead in time of several years. Apart from that it's politically suicidal as has been noted.

Although government does have a responsibility to deal with the fine details of policy it also has a responsibility to keep the big picture firmly in mind at all times and be guided by that. What will be the environmental impact of increasing vehicle excise duty on old cars - probably very little since I suspect they will still be sold on rather than scrapped, albeit albeit at a discount to compensate for the increased tax. Where are the figures to justify it (they may exist of course)? But even if it could be substantiated it will still be a drop in the ocean in terms of pollution and carbon emissions.

It's the same story with recycling. I would like to see the figures that justify the carbon efficiency of recycling, including people driving bottles to the bottle bank in their car, (I'd be grateful if someone can point me in the right direction). But the big picture is that most domestic recycling is a drop in the ocean. How much more effective would it be to deal with the manufacturers and retailers and limit superfluous packaging and wasteful production - which could no doubt be done by fiscal means. Fining people £75-100 for things like overfilling a wheelie bin is a nonsense. It smacks of authoritarianism but it is also very stupid because it makes no environmental difference. It's the kind of thing that can make a government very unpopular very quickly.

The big picture is our total carbon emission. But our environmental policies (though by and large relatively good by international standards) are shot through with the most enormous contradictions (but that is another thread...).

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#23)

They should impose strict regulations on the use of plastics in packaging.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#2)

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#7)

your best post ever madasafish!

keep it up :)

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#9)

Madasafish may be making a complex and enigmatic  (if not ironic) statement about silence, in a postmodern context, perhaps alluding to the impossibility of an authentic exchange of views or the disappearance of the authorial voice - his very absence becoming, in its own way, a kind of presence... ?

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#8)

I think the problem here is that all of usual names touted as possible replacements for Brown have downsides.

Everyone agrees that part of Brown's problem is that he is not a "people" person. But Miliband comes across as cold, wonkish and cerebral - I think he would be as bad as Brown here. What we need is a warmer character. Also, I didn't like the way he was smirking last week on TV, immature of what.

Now Ed Miliband is warm, but he is inexperienced. James Purnell has ideas, but he would make the party (and core voters) nervous, and we need someone to reasure them. Jack Straw, safe pair of hands, but he's the one who handled Gordon Brown's leadership campaign last year, getting him 313 out of 356 nominations - would it be credible if he ran? Ed Balls is intelligent, but too close to Brown and too abraisive. Andy Burnham too young and has unfortunately become a bit of a laughing stock. Douglas Alexander blotted his copybook by the way he mishandled the Scottish elections last year.

The only possible good candidates are Jacqui Smith and John Denham.

Jacqui Smith has handled the Home Office (the roughest department in government) well - she's depoliticised it to some extent. She's also literally Worcester woman (she was born in Worcestershire). Before becoming an MP, she was a teacher. Before becoming Home Secretary, she was chief whip and very popular (which is a good sign).  Her downside is that she's in a marginal seat. However, becoming PM might make her safer, as people like their MP to be PM.

John Denham is English and southern, and he resigned from the Home Office over Iraq (which he voted against). Before becoming an MP he worked for a lot of charities (Friends of the Earth, War on want, Christian Aid, Oxfam). He then became a councillor in Southampton, during the period Labour ran Southampton council. He was elected MP in 1992, so has experience of Labour in it's period of opposition and despair. His seat too is a marginal, but if he became PM, it would strengthen his chances of reelection. His best characteristic is his personality - warm and easy to talk to. If he's good on TV, he's even better in person. Naturally loves canvassing, meeting voters and so on. He's a moderate without being a Blairite or Brownite.

I suggest that if people don't want either Miliband or Brown, they need to coalesce around Smith or Denham. We can see if we can get a net-roots campaign going to counter the one in the media. What do people think?

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#10)

That it doesn't make the blindest bit of difference?

The problem is with the rightwing policies, not with which identikit New Labour clone spouts them.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#11)

You really believe that there is no difference between a Blairite and a moderate like Denham? How do you explain Denham's resignation over Iraq or his criticisms of the Blair govt when he was on the Hone Office select committee? Or the way when he became Universities minister, he extended maintenance grants?

John McDonnell won't win. Everyone knows this. If people had sense they would coalesce around the most moderate alternative.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#12)

One of the benefits of a transferable vote system is that those of us who don't like anyone outside the left can reluctantly cast a second-preference vote for the least repugnant of the New Labourites.

That doesn't mean getting excited about campaigning for one.

And, more importantly, unless whoever wins changes political tack RAPIDLY we will not only see a Tory landslide in a couple of years but could be pondering the end of the Labour Party. I don't see anyone remotely connected with New Labour having the balls to do what is necessary. As McDonnell has said repeatedly, it is emphatically not about personalities, it is about changing the policies that got us into this mess.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#13)

OK, I understand your reluctance to get "excited", you'd be betraying your values, yada, yada, yada.

Who in your opinion would be the "least repugnant of the new Labourites"?

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#14)

Where did I say anything about betraying values?

You seem to have read more into the posting than I actually wrote.

It's simple in terms of both principles and electorability - we cannot win another election without a leader who will radically change policies.

Oh and probably Jon Trickett or one of the other Compass types. Maybe Emily Thornberry.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#15)

E10rifles

No matter what you think of Brown, do you think it is in the interest of the left to join in with the attempt to depose Brown at this point?

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#16)

I don't think attempts to depose Brown are a good idea at all. However, if I were him I would call a proper leadership election (not like last year's sham) and declare my candidacy.

In the absence of this, and of radical policy change, I don't see any hope at all for the next election.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#30)

I agree with you that attempts to depose Brown are not a good idea. He could contest a leadership election, as Major did, and face down his critics.

I would also like to see radical policy change. I think it would be quite possible to put together policies that the left and centre of the party could embrace and that would be electorally popular. Obviously the next election will be very tough whatever we do.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#17)

But none of the Compass people will do any better than McDonnell.

I'm surprised at your choice of Emily Thornberry. I checked her out - educated at Cheltenham Ladies College (nothing wrong with that, but couldn't we give the leadership to a comprehensive school person like Denham or Jacqui Smith?). Why do you like her so much?

Which New Labour person would you transfer your vote to?

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#18)

I think Compass are part of the New Labour project. Its left flank, if you like.

Thornberry is pretty anti-academies so that's a big plus in my book. Don't know much else about her, really. Except that she recently backed down under pressure from the government on her plan to introduce an amendment extending abortion to Northern Ireland. So a bit of a wet fish then, like most of Compass.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#19)

I don't think of compass as New Labour at all. People like Neal Lawson are worse than McDonnell. Luckily he is not an MP.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#20)

Do you know Lawson's history?

Packing meetings with right-wing occasional delegates to deselect left wing MPs? Wholesale embracing of the New Labour project when it seemed the thing to do? A career spent as a fixer, deal-broker and bureaucrat helping stitch things up in favour of the right?

There's a reason that many of us on the left are sceptical to say the least about Lawson's Damascene conversion to socialism.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#21)

Oh and advisor to Gordon Brown?

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#22)

I've just read his articles in the Guardian, and they seem bitter and confused

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#24)

He is pretty confused. The problem with Compass is that they can't decide if they support New Labour or not, and this is because they are influenced by people who actually aren't very left wing at all.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#25)

"But none of the Compass people will do any better than McDonnell."

I don't agree with this (and I normally agree with everything you say :)  I think if Jon Cruddas stands he could win (offering no comment on whether or not that would be a good idea).

If the Blairites force Brown out, which for some weird reason does seem to be their plan at the moment, and then obviously coalesce behind Miliband offering members the enticing prospect of the return of Alan Milburn, then I don't see how they can get a majority (Hopi Sen and Luke Akehurst seem to agree with me about this).  There is very little comfort for them in either the last deputy leadership contest or this year's NEC elections.

If Cruddas stands he is pretty much guaranteed to win the unions section and do well in the members section.  I don't think you can say either of those things about John Denham.

The two scenarios seem to be either Miliband as the New Labour candidate vs a soft left challenger (either Harman or Cruddas), or a pile-in with loads of people standing (which would be a gigantic mess coming down to 4th and 5th preferences).

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#26)

The former seems a far from enticing prospect.

So I guess I hope for the latter...

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#27)

Cruddas didn't win in the deputy leadership contest though, did he? He actually stated he was not up to being deputy prime minister, and was only going for the position of deputy of the labour party. So if he wasn't up to being DPM, can he really be PM?

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#29)

Hold your horses. He didn't say he couldn't or didn't have the ability but that he didn't want too. He wanted to be deputy leader as he wanted to turn the party round and reform our processes and internal structuures and become an activist based party again. In fact this is even more poignant now than it was last year with continuing falls in membership, polling, activism etc.

In fact he was predicting the eventual outcome as Harriet Harman isn't Deputy Prime Minister and he helped educate the party and wider electorate to what the election was actually about which is deputy leader and not deputy prime minister, so let's not conflate things here.

Saying you don't want to do something isn't the same as saying you are not able to do it.

Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#28)

Well you'll all have to pull together to avoid this: (and don't pick Hutton)

Labour is heading for its worst electoral defeat for more than 70 years, according to a "poll of polls".
 

By Jon Swaine
Last Updated: 7:15PM BST 06 Aug 2008

Gordon Brown would lose his Chancellor, Home Secretary and almost half his MPs if he were to call a general election, according to the study.

On current levels of support, David Cameron would be invited to form a government after leading the Conservatives to an overwhelming electoral victory and an overall majority in the House of Commons of 132, twice Labour's current advantage, according to the research.

The exercise, carried out by the polling and British politics expert Professor John Curtice, shows that Mr Brown and his party enjoy the support of just 27 per cent of voters, while the Conservatives boast 44 pc and the Liberal Democrats have 18 pc.

If that were repeated in a general election, the Conservatives would return with 391 MPs while Labour would be cut down to a rump of 195. Labour has not had fewer than 200 MPs since the 1935 election, when it won 154 seats under Clement Attlee. Even in 1983, after going to the country with Michael Foot's infamous "longest suicide note in history" manifesto, the party returned with 209 seats.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, and Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, would lose their seats if the election followed the current climate, while the senior ministers Ruth Kelly, the Transport Secretary and John Hutton, the Business Secretary, would also be put out of a job.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/2509649/Labour-set-for-70-year-electoral- low.html





Re: Why the centre-left needs to back Brown (#31)

I have came across an interesting take on this issue from Tony Benn's Diaries 2001-2007, 'More Time for Politics' (2007, Hutchinson, London).

On October 22 2005 (p274) Benn wrote:
There was a poll asking the public whether they would prefer David Cameron or Gordon Brown to be Prime Minister, and the answer was Cameron, by quite a substantial margin. When we come to the next election, if the world economy is going down, which would hit Gordon Brown's record at the Treasury, and if Blair leaves it so late that Brown can't establish himself, it's quite likely that the media - and Murdoch in particular - will decide it's time for a change and they will shift to Cameron. That will be the final punishment imposed on the Labour Party by New Labour and Blair.'