1. State polling – National polls at this time are not much use in predicting the election outcome. It is a long time away and the real polling is about how each state will vote - Bush showed what can be done if you win the right states and lose the popular vote. Therefore any national poll has to be treated with scepticism about its accuracy in predicting a general election. (But look out for Fox focussing on the national polls as they will look better for McCain).

State polling shows Obama in much rosier position. Of the states that Bush won in 2004, with an Electoral College margin of just 286-252, 7 of these are now leaning towards Obama. Of the States that voted Kerry in 2004, Obama has increased the Democrats lead in every one of them (with the exception of rock solid Massachusetts, Kerry’s home state ).

Those 7 states that Bush won in 2004 are now favouring Obama and carry a total 70 electoral votes between them. Obama actually needs to hold just 17 of these 70 electoral votes to gain the Whitehouse. Florida with its 27 electoral votes which went to Bush 2000-2004 is only just with McCain by 0.5%, if McCain does not land Florida, it is almost impossible for him.

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

2. Momentum – Obama has great charisma and can deliver a speech very well, even when under pressure. His speech after losing New Hampshire was one of the best in the campaign and his 2004 convention speech and Berlin experience show that he knows how to hold and wow an audience.

His set piece acceptance speech will be the most watch speech of his campaign and I think will be the defining moment of the race. If he delivers, as I suspect he will, an amazing acceptance speech, the bounce and subsequent momentum will carry him well into the campaign. It will be the thing that most Americans remember about him.

McCain is not as great at these set pieces and with the Republican convention following the Democrats he will be directly compared. Neither Gore, nor Kerry, could reach the Bill Clinton heights of public speaking and couldn’t get the “big mo” going from the convention. Obama will, and it set up the final stages nicely.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Democratic_National_Convention

3. Supporters – The support for the Democrats has been massive during the primaries. In New Hampshire for example, a key swing state, 280,000 people voted in the Democratic primary compared to 220,000 in the Republican race. In all of the “toss up” states, the voting in the Democratic primary was a good 20% above that in the Republicans (it was double in Ohio – a key swing state with 20 electoral votes). The Democrats one problem was that Michigan and Florida did not run primaries in two key states, which may come back to haunt them (although despite this, Hillary received more votes in the uncontested Michigan election that John McCain did in a contested one). The lack of groundwork and the inability to build goodwill will set Obama back here.

Despite this, the Democrats still have a much higher level of public support and activists working on their campaigns. As campaigners will know, it is not won or lost on leg work alone, but it sure helps.

Source: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/

4. Senate Seats - Of 35 Senate seats up for re-election this year, 23 are now held by Republicans. Of these 35 seats there are 10 that are seen as “toss up” states, 9 of which are Repbulican. A worse case scenario for the Democrats is that they lose their 1 “toss-up” seat and end up with 48 – senators (with 2 independents caucusing with them). However it is likely, following polling, that the Republicans will lose at least 3 or 4 of these, with a possibility of losing all 9. Also in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Jersey the Dems lead and the incumbent Republican is retiring. The Dems are even ahead in Alaska, where Republican Ted Stephens has recently been indicted after “scheming to conceal thousands of dollars worth of gifts from a major employer in his state”. The Republicans have said themselves that only 2 of the 9 seats are likely to be safe - one marginally and one by a long way.

The Republicans will have to pour resources into these states to ensure that the democrats don’t make it to 60 seats in the Senate, a filibuster proof – veto proof majority. In US politics the Presidency is important, but the importance of controlling the House and Senate should not be underestimated.

Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/02/dems.senate/index.html

5. Fundraising – In 2000 the Republicans raised over $720 compared to the Democrats £520m, in 2004 the difference was $160m with the Dems up to $730m and the Reps $890m. Currently in this election cycle the Democrats have raised just $40m less that the Reps who raised $457m. Both have $129m cash in hand as the republicans have spend $40m more so far. Which means for the first time since Clinton the Democrats are fighting the Republicans with a level playing field when it comes to war chests, and the Republicans have more Senate seats to defend along with all their Congresssional Seats and 5 Governorships.

Source: http://www.opensecrets.org/parties/index.php?cmte=&cycle=2008

Much has been made of Obama’s decision to opt out of state funding (that limits candidate to spending around $80 in the short campaign) however this was the right move. Barack Obama also has an awesome and unmatchable fundraising potential. He has currently brought in over $378m compared to McCains $180m and will be able to outspend him by 2-1. This has been made possible by the hundreds of thousands of individual donors that have contributed small amounts to the campaign.

In a general election the ability to outspend rivals has always helped the Republican candidates, but this time they will struggle to match Obama, who will fill the airwaves with adverts from now until election day.

I think i could struggle to 10 – but wont. All in all the message is don't panic!

6. Gravitas
7. George Bush
8. Youthful and in-touch
9. The pendulum swing in politics
10. It happen on the West Wing