There are two things that the media like to do when it comes to a 3 party political system. The first is to focus on the leader in the weakest position and continue to ask when the party is going to oust them. This happened with Blair, then Cameron when he had his wobble, then on to Campbell until he finally went, and now it’s landed on Gordon Brown. When this happens there is no let up, it will continue until there is a resignation, an assassination, a Spectacular conference speech or another leader in trouble. The only other way of ending the speculation is to make a John Major style put up or shut up call.

In my mind, this is the only way Brown can end the speculation, which is so damaging to the Government and the party. No sane politician thinks that this will just go away when the economy improves, that’s not how it works.

Which leads on to the second thing – the self fuelling media narrative. The media only need a sniff of a story in the “24-hour news” age that we live in to run with it, it doesn’t have to be substantiated and “anonymous” sources are fine. We rely on the fact that these are true when some are bound to make up from thin air.

This means that the media end up taking over and driving a story until there is some resolution. This usually occurs with Govt Ministers sackings, it starts with a small bit of information then as the days build and the hoards of journalists and reporters gather more and more info and build it up until eventually people have to respond to speculation, then people are responding to the response and so on.

Gordon Brown now finds himself with both of these pressures building at the same time – the question of leadership and a building media narrative, fuelled by people wanting him to go – union bosses, members, MPs, Ministers and they are getting increasingly close to Cabinet members.

The Miliband letter will only fuel the speculation and the idea that he didn’t know this, for someone of his political experience, is just not possible. Downing Street say they are relaxed and knew it was being published. If so, that was foolish.

There has to be an action to stop this, an action that will stop the press and speculation, it’s the only way it works. That will either come in the form as the end game for Brown, or it must come from him as a put-up or shut-up call to reassert his leadership over the party.

Given his record, I think he is too careful to do such a bold thing, and for that reason I’m now more convinced that the end game for him will be coming soon – something Major was able to avoid.

BNL