It's not just Glasgow East

Tankist Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:44:13 AM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Labour is in deep trouble and we do ourselves no favours if we think that what happened in Glasgow was simply about Scottish politics.



Maybe the most significant byelection result last night was in Westminster where the Tories scored a 14.1% swing from 2006!

There is no more point in saying that last night was a one off than in pretending the London Mayoral disaster was a freak. The reality is that we are still cycling downwards and we need to face that.

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It's not just Glasgow East | 40 comments (40 topical)

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#1)

by red flagger on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:01:57 AM GMT

I don't think the general membership is in denial, it's the junta at the top who seem unable to grasp what's going i.e. Des Browne, who caused me great stress at the start of my day with his inane waffling on the BBC...


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#2)

by adwilliams134 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:15:04 AM GMT

It's simple really.  Labour is deliberately trying to lose the next election.  It has to be deliberate,  no 'professional' politician could the inept and incompetent for this to be a mistake.

Do's - Large scale council house buliding, end tuition fees, drop ID cards, get out of Iraq, get out of Afghanistan, raise the minimum wage substantially,  yell the truth about inflation,  in fact tell only the truth - no spin,  keep Hazel Blears off telly,  drop all PPP/PFI schemes,  drop the Olympics, re-nationalise the rail, re-nationalise water, gas & electric.

Of c ourse you won't do any of this, and that is why you are losing and will continue to do so.


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#3)

by jkitleft on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:05:17 PM GMT

Large scale council housing-1st priority

End tuition fees-No, go for a graduate tax

Drop ID cards-Not too bothered, but government can put them to progressive use. Perhaps use a form of them for a carbon trading scheme.

Get out of Iraq-Yes. But carefully.

Get out of Afghanistan-NO.

Raise the minimum wage-YES. Into a living wage for all.

Drop PPP/PFI-Moderately in favour.

Drop the Olympics-No.

Renationalising rail/gas/water/electric-Yes to rail and water. But lets figure out some alternative form of common ownership, rather than top-down nationalisation. Some form of co-operative, or workers and consumers interest companies.

 


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#4)

by adwilliams134 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:09:30 PM GMT

Looks like you've lost then.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#5)

by jkitleft on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:11:56 PM GMT

Why?


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#6)

by adwilliams134 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:15:58 PM GMT

Because you are not going to recapture or retain your core vote.  Labour is doomed to lose unless it changes dramatically before 2010.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#7)

by Tankist on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:43:10 PM GMT

The only vote we have is the core one. That is the point.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#9)

by Floating voter on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:44:39 PM GMT

"Labour is doomed to lose unless it changes dramatically before 2010."

I agree. "More of the same" will not fix this.

The danger is copycat electoral behaviour where the voters now know that they can really give the govt a kicking in by-elections to voice their displeasure. If they are not listened to then the behaviour is reinforced. Eventually this behaviour becomes the norm and you just don't vote Labour. This is exactly what happened to the tories in the 90s.  It is now happening to Labour and these patterns of behaviour tend to accelerate and get more pronounced.

Things are likely to get rapidly worse. An election in 2010 is, IMO, over-optimistic. Next year looks more likely. It depends whether the party huddles in the bunker at the party conference or explodes due to internal stresses. 


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#11)

by andre on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:01:19 PM GMT

Large scale council housing

End tuition fees

Drop ID cards-.

Get out of Iraq

Get out of Afghanistan

Raise the minimum wage

Drop the Olympics

Renationalising rail/gas/water/electric

This is largely irrelevant.  Anyone who thinks Labour's current unpopularity is due to the Olympics, PFI, council housing or a popular demand to return to nationalised industries is so wide of the mark it's laughable.  I actually agree with most of the above, with the exceptions of renationalisation, but I genuinely don't think this is what the general public are so angry about.

If I spoke to any of the voters in Glasgow East yesterday about their concerns, I doubt they would have told me they were voting SNP because the SNP was committed to nationising the rail network, reversing PFI, dropping ID cards, dropping the Olympics or getting out of Iraq...


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#12)

by adwilliams134 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:42:09 PM GMT

On the contrary, that is what they are annoyed about - particularly council housing shortages and NHS dentist shortages.  The economy is the catalyst that's caused the explosion.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#15)

by jkitleft on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 07:15:04 PM GMT

Of course people are annoyed about council house shortages and lack of dentists. But not about the Olympics, or whether industries are nationalised or not.
But, it comes with the territory of being on the left. So the focus has to be on the things people really truely care about. Because I'm wondering whether industries if nationalised would get 10x better-it's just a bit fairer.

However, you are right about council homes. Property developers aren't going to build council houses out of altruism. So we have to build them, if we're going to take the pressure off the housing market. Also, I believe we should start building outside of the council estates. They need to be broken up. You slowly build up an estate for poor people, and it is a disaster for local services, and social mobility.

On the Olympics, I think we can leave a positive legacy. Remember after the Dome, and the designer said it should symbalise a hub of Greenwich that didn't mean another Thatcherisation of Greenwich. With the glass plated buildings, and the restaurants, and the cleaners invisible to the businessmen. It is an incredibly creepy place. The Olympics should have to leave a tremendous legacy for ALL, not just property developers, and businessmen. Otherwise, it wouldn't be London. It wouldn't have the random flecks of city life, which throws out all sorts of ideosyncrasies. 

Its main legacy should be about transport. Crossrail will come into service a few years after. And there are other transport improvements that need to be made. London should also be a cycling city, like the Dutch and Frech and German cities. The improvements to the East End, need to be for the poor, who did not see their lives improve just because buildings on the other side of the river looked a bit fancier. The legacy should help to provide affordable housing, and other social goods. 


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#16)

by andre on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 07:20:12 PM GMT

Well, it's what I'm angry about as a Labour Party supporter and activist.  I want a government that defends council housing, axes PFI, and takes action on NHS dental shortages.  But Labour's dip in fortunes did not coincide with the Iraq war, widespread lack of access to NHS dentists, PFI, foundation hospitals, etc.  In spite of all the mistakes of New Labour policy, the electorate still had faith in Tony Blair to deliver a better Britain.  Fact.

People didn't vote against Labour because they're desperate for a PM who will nationalise the railways!  David Cameron isn't seen as an alternative to Brown because he is a strong supporter of council housing!  I agree that a shift to the left could help restore faith in Labour among many people, but the damage has been done by the economic downturn (which always matters more than policy in relation to voting behaviour), the axing of the 10% income tax rate, rising food/fuel prices, personality-focused media, the arrogance of the government and the indecisiveness of Gordon Brown.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#8)

by jdc on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:19:33 PM GMT

While I might agree that we are cycling rapidly downwards and failing to face it, the Westminster by-election is pretty much psephologically meaningless.

Consider a few facts;

* The Labour vote was broadly unchanged

* The Tory vote went up by 25%

* In 2006 Respect took 22% of the vote
 
* In the by-election, Respect did not stand

* The Tory candidate in the by-election was a Bangladeshi Muslim.

This result wasn't about political ideology, or the performance of the Government.


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#10)

by Prbo on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:08:53 PM GMT

meaningless - maybe.  Interesting - very.  More interesting than that by-election in Hayes & Harlington someone posted about a week ago


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#13)

by Curlew on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:33:16 PM GMT

You mean the one where LABOUR actually WON? And which everyone dismissed? Speaks volumes


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#14)

by rosie on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:52:16 PM GMT

Brown is going to do what Thatcher could only dream of and send us into electoral oblivion.

Cruddas for leader, 20 months to go!


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#17)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 12:34:18 AM GMT

Stop banging on about Cruddas - he's useless!


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#18)

by NB on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 10:28:04 AM GMT

Thatcher's aim was to send Socialism into electoral oblivion.  Whatever Tony Blair's government was, it wasn't Socialist.

Except for Blair in 1997 Labour have always depended on enormous majorities in Scotland to be able to get a majority in the UK Parliament.  So if Labour has lost Scotland there is no chance of a Labour government in Westminster, except perhaps in coalition with the SNP :-).

However Gordon is so unpopular in England that unless Labour gets rid of him the English will not forgive Labour for 15 years.  Consider how emotive Thatcher is in Scotland, still.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#19)

by jkitleft on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 12:12:41 PM GMT

1945, 2001 off the top of my head are an exception to this Labour dies if Scotland goes rule. There are several other elections.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#22)

by lulu on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 03:04:14 PM GMT

Utter guff.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#20)

by daveblue on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 12:57:34 PM GMT

gordon brown is in a difficult position as new labour he cannot attack the tories against certain things like cuts in welfare benefits as they are nearly the same policies as theres look what he could have done if he took his jacket off and could rip into the tories about these cuts and how much poverty and crime that will cause but he cannot because of blairites


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#21)

by gpmalpas on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 01:11:23 PM GMT

you do not reduce poverty by increasing welfare benefits. try a little hard work!


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#26)

by daveblue on Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 12:25:04 PM GMT

when you have been medically retired due to ill health you cannot work i have payed my taxes at work and still now so there


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#24)

by jkitleft on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 11:44:20 PM GMT

If you are going to repeat the same line, so shall I. Why when there were fears about the economy several months ago, were we behind by 5-10 points, and now we're behind by 20-25 points? If you can focus it on one thing, it would be the 10p tax.


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#27)

by 85FS on Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 07:48:23 PM GMT

Anyone who wants to go bact to the bad old days of nationalised companies needs their heads examined. I still remember 6 month waiting lists to get a phone installed.

Appeal to only the core vote and you will get  aTory government for the next 20 years. Labour would then will be like the old Daily Telegraph which was stuck in the past pandering to its "loyal" readers who never wanted change. Sadly, those loyal readers were dying out.

I want a world where things work, Where people get a fair days pay for a fair days woprk. Where the week get looked after. Where the work shy, the idle and the indolent get short shrift and boot up where it hurts.

Going back to the past will not solve anything apart from reducing Labour to a minor party.


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#28)

by adwilliams134 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:05:31 AM GMT

Thing is, Labour no longer appeal to their core vote and without them not only do you lose,  but you are actually irrelevant and serve no purpose.

I'm core vote - working class, union member, etc etc.  I would vote for Thatcher before I'd vote for Brown otr anty of the pathetic creatures like the Millibands, Balls, Purnell etc.  And I'm deadly serious.

My type of people - the ones you relied on but haven't listened to - have had enough of middle-england, middle-class policies.  Drop them or we drop you.  Full stop.
You don't tell us anything anymore.  We tell you, you deliver, we vote for you.  That's how it works from now on in whether you like it or not.

You work for us, not us for you.  We tell you what to do,  noyt you us.  Understand?

Do you know how much damage banning smoking in pubs has done to you at working class level?  (I'm a non-smoker,  but I know)


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#36)

by jkitleft on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 12:34:52 AM GMT

Trouble is, Middle England could be part of our core vote. Don't snort. Surely, Middle England should be those hovering on median income levels in the country? The median income is £24,000. It's not a mythical £45,000 sum the Mail might have us imagine.

I'm not looking at the electoral benefits of the smoking ban, although support has gone up since the ban. I'm looking at potential longterm savings in healthcare costs.

We won't be in power very long, if it looks like we're doing things against are will "whether we like it or not". By all means, I think we need to emphasise Labour values, but not by the process of blackmail. It degrades good socialist policies.

What does middle-class policies mean? I think we do listen to our core vote, but we're just not telling them. Occasionally, left-wing journalists will ask the government like they're a kid, "What's that behind your back?" The government will reply glumly "It's gay rights, improvements in the NHS and childcare, the minimum wage, tax credits, the New Deal, and a number of other left-wing policies." The trouble is not that the government have ignored the core vote (which of course they need to do more for in terms of policies), it's just that they don't want to tell them.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#29)

by e10rifles on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:22:37 AM GMT

My sister has been waiting nearly a year to get a phone line installed by the private company BT. I really wish the rightwingers on here would get some new clichés.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#30)

by 85FS on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:10:45 PM GMT

These things happen even in the best run companies, which BT certainly is not. However, BT, shoddy as it is, is a million miles better than the old Post Office. In the old Post Office waiting months for a line to be installed was the norm.

If you don't like BT get your sister a mobile phone from one of the many companies that competition has spawned.

Is it right wing to want to have services that work?


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#31)

by e10rifles on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:21:55 PM GMT


No but it's rightwing to think that the private sector always delivers better services.

Thanks for the really helpful advice. Shall I suggest to get that she access the internet through her mobile phone as well? Of course, the preponderance of mobile phones these days has absolutely nothing to do with the development of technology across the world and everything to do with telecoms privatisation in the UK.

And then we could discuss the fantastic service we get from the private monopoly water companies...


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#32)

by jdc on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 04:11:38 PM GMT

I moved in to my flat in October 2006. I got connected to the phone network in March 2007. I'll be entirely fair, it wasn't all BT's fault, it was partly the owner of the building failing to liaise with the utility companies when doing the conversion.

Who do I hold to account? How? What 'competitor' should I have contacted to get a phone line installed? Even if I could have, my broadband claims only to work with BT anyway. Etc...

Shoddy service is the norm from many of these large companies, and it would be even worse if they had to provide the free-at-the-point of use services to people with complex needs that are delivered by the public sector.

People who expect the NHS to be Tesco are merely deluded. People who think it's easier to deal with a private utility than a public one, on the other hand, probably have a PA to do both on their behalf...


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#33)

by Iamme on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 09:54:05 PM GMT

To be honest, I hope Labour come 3rd in the General Election.  I'm not a supporter anymore.  They're always telling everyone what to do.  They're like a bossy, push autocratic overbearing boarding school teacher.  I welcomed Labour's win but now I just want rid of them.

 

The one thing that angers me more than anything is the cannabis reclassification plans.


Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#34)

by Free Radical on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 10:35:21 PM GMT

Yes, we know - you keep talking about cannabis. It's not the only issue for most people.

Personally I'm in favour of decriminalisation of drugs to eliminate the black market as far as possible. But I don't think cannabis should actually be encouraged as it has well documented risks - though admittedly not as much as alcohol, which is particularly toxic and addictive.

But I think we are all very well acquainted with your views on cannabis by now... and I don't think it helps your case much by keeping on repeating it.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#35)

by jkitleft on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 12:23:15 AM GMT

Apparently though, adding CBD to marijuana would reduce psycosis inducing effects.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#37)

by Free Radical on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 01:18:01 AM GMT

I hadn't heard that. There are other ill effects apart from psychosis - the smoke, if smoked, is apparently more carcinogenic than tobacco and also damages the lungs more because the temperature is higher. Plus it seems to be addictive (or at least causes dependence) even though it used to be thought not to be.

People should just be aware of the risks if they choose to use it.

But there are so many huge issues around - deprivation, areas of healthcare still to improve, areas with unemployment, low wages etc. that I can't get worked up about cannabis - except for the link between drugs and crime, which could be solved so simply if politicians (of either major party) had the guts to tackle it - by decriminalisation (not legalisation which is a little different of course).


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#39)

by jdc on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:31:40 AM GMT

While the carcinogen point is correct, I don't know any potheads who smoke 40 a day, so it's not a wholly fair comparison.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#38)

by Free Radical on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 01:18:14 AM GMT

I hadn't heard that. There are other ill effects apart from psychosis - the smoke, if smoked, is apparently more carcinogenic than tobacco and also damages the lungs more because the temperature is higher. Plus it seems to be addictive (or at least causes dependence) even though it used to be thought not to be.

People should just be aware of the risks if they choose to use it.

But there are so many huge issues around - deprivation, areas of healthcare still to improve, areas with unemployment, low wages etc. that I can't get worked up about cannabis - except for the link between drugs and crime, which could be solved so simply if politicians (of either major party) had the guts to tackle it - by decriminalisation (not legalisation which is a little different of course).


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#40)

by Floating voter on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 01:37:00 PM GMT

Anybody who smokes is an idiot it's that simple.

There are so many downsides that the only upside - a possible reduction in Irritable Bowel Syndrome - is not worth it.



[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#41)

by jkitleft on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 04:26:49 PM GMT

The University of Cologne and Kings College have found though that CBD, an ingredient in Marijuana, is more effective than any anti-psycosis drug they currently use.


[ Parent ]

Re: It's not just Glasgow East (#42)

by Floating voter on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:57:09 AM GMT

" ... CBD, an ingredient in Marijuana, is more effective than any anti-psycosis drug they currently use"

And are they suggesting that people smoke to get this or do they intend to refine it as an injectable substance? 


[ Parent ]

It's not just Glasgow East | 40 comments (40 topical)