Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll

LabourOutlook Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:59:12 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

An ICM poll in tomorrow's Guardian gives the following figures:

Conservatives: 43% (-2)
Labour: 28% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 19% (-1)
Other: 9% (-1)

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Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll | 9 comments (9 topical)

Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#1)

by rosie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 08:26:29 PM GMT

Would still lead to a massive Conservative majority and Labour wipeout.


Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#2)

by LabourOutlook on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 08:36:20 PM GMT

Of course, but a five point drop in the Tory lead isn't a bad start


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Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#3)

by rosie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 08:49:45 PM GMT

It is not a five point drop they are only down two, within the margin of error I'd say. However some good news, Labour is more popular than Brown, maybe this will give David Miliband, James Purnell etc the push they need to oust him!


Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#4)

by Floating voter on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 09:12:09 PM GMT

Maybe it's up because Gordon's abroad. See if it goes down when he returns.

(Bad of me, but I couldn't resist....) 


[ Parent ]

Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#6)

by doktorbuk on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:46:25 AM GMT

The figure to look at is the percentage of people who trust Labour on the economy. It is now in freefall.  The voting intention figures will always wax and wane; on specific policy issues, that's where the interesting figures lie.


[ Parent ]

Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#5)

by NB on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:46:01 AM GMT

Polls have a theoretical "margin of error" of+/- 3% and in practice +/-5%. The Weighted Moving Average has been pretty stable around 45:26:17 since mid-June.


Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#7)

by fluffymike on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 10:36:35 AM GMT

Well it's better than some other polls recently, but to describe it as anything other than dreadful is missing the point!

Even to suggest it represents 'a start', presuming you mean a start in the hoped for recovery, is a little presumptious just yet - as mentioned there is always a 3% margin of error.

If we see a month of 28-30% polls then we can start talking about a fight back... but at the moment the polls are still far worse for us than for Major in the mid-90s... and that was at a point when polls overstated Labour and understated Tory support even more than they do now...

If we start thinking anything is acceptable short of a regular ten point Labour lead then we're heading for serious defeat.  Even if we peg them back level, we will not be able to rest on any laurels.


Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#8)

by madasafish on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:06:10 AM GMT

I'm a great believer in trends... so unless the trend reverses, Labour could be sub 20%.

As the future economic news is likely to deteriorate, I'd say the chances of sub 20% are quite high.

Couple that with Ed Balls' high profile refusal to accept responsibility for anything - where is the focus on education? - things can only get worse.


Re: Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll (#9)

by NB on Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 09:15:11 AM GMT

The latest Ipsos/Mori shows 47:27:15 - the overall picture is that the Weighted Moving Average remains stable 45:26:17.  Amazingly half of Labour supporters and satisfied with Gordon's leadership vs 21% in the country as a whole.  Only 18% like Gordon and the Labour Party, so probably that is the "core vote" if Gordon stays on.


Labour deficit narrows in Guardian-ICM poll | 9 comments (9 topical)