Why Blair should have been allowed 18 more months

There was a long thread on Political Betting about where Labour would be if Blair was still PM. I think we would be in a similar mess in the polls. But the difference would be that we would now be planning to elect a new leader. Blair could have absorbed the blame for Northern Rock, credit crunch and other "events" and taken it with him when he went. A new leader could have enjoyed a honeymoon that coincided with the next general election.


By bumping Blair out in 2007, Brown guaranteed he got a few years as PM (probably also one motivation for backing out of the snap election last year). He also avoided the risk of another candidate emerging as the economy took a downturn. But if Blair had been allowed to stay until late 2008 or even into 2009, we could have had a new leader and a bounce in the polls at a time when calling a general election looked reasonable, not cynical. Is this the tragedy of Brown's timing?

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Re: Why Blair should have been allowed (#1)

Disagreed, I'm afraid.

Brown would still be held responsible for the 10p tax rate as he was Chancellor. Also, if it was Brown that had to explain the missing tax disks (added to the 10p tax problems), he would've never made it to the leadership.

You're also assuming that the indecision over "the election that never was" isn't one of of the main reasons people lost respect for Brown - so we wouln't be exactly where we are. 

We'd now have Blair exposing Cameron's flummery on marraige, duplicity on education, hedging on Northern Rock and winning the debate every Wednesday at PMQs.

Blair would've gone to Crewe and Nantwich and the "Toff" campaign wouldn't have been approved. We may even have won it. 

Remember also why Blair DIDN'T get another 18 months was because Brown and his lackeys undermined him again and again.

You are right though, Blair should've been given more time, if he had though, Gordon wouldn't have made the Premiership.

Re: Why Blair should have been allowed (#8)

I agree.

I always said Blair should have stayed til 2009. He was our greatest asset and we got rid of him far too soon.

Re: Why Blair ... 18 months longer (#2)

If we are talking hypotheticals with the benefit of hindsight, then a new leader in June 2007, a good summer sorting out some weather crisis, and a snap election in October 2007 would have been ideal :-)  But I recall most on Labourhome were against an October 2007 election - Ed Balls had that one right it seems.

Re: Why Blair ... 18 months longer (#10)

Actually Richard, no.

The grassroots were clamouring for an election. 62% said they wanted an election; 56% said we were ready for an election. Only 34% expected him to call the election then, though - which means the grassroots got it right.

Re: Why Blair ... 18 months longer (#12)

You're right there Jag. My memory let me down.

Re: Blair should have gone earlier (#3)

I couldn't have stood another 18 months of that man. He should have resigned when there were no WMD to be found in Iraq and it was clear that parliament had been thoroughly misled.

Re: Blair should have gone earlier (#9)

On the WMD issue, I think that Blair genuinely believed that WMD was in Iraq. I think the accusations of 'Bliar' were unfair.

Also, I'm not sure we should refer to Blair as 'that man'.

The phrase 'that (wo)man' should only be applied to Thatcher.

Re: Why Blair should have been allowed (#4)

Yes, I should be clearer. Blair having 18 months longer would have been to the benefit of the Party, not necessarily to Brown. And, of course, the former is more important.

Re: Why Blair should have been allowed (#6)

I'm afraid you are wrong here. Blair was irritating people very badly on the foreign policy front. Remember Lebanon, where he needlessly got Britain involved in supporting israel's invasion of that country? We had the whole world and their dog saying "why isn't Britain doing something about Lebanon", forgetting that Lebanon was a former French terroritory and only the french had influence over them and only the American had influence over Israel. We had influence over no-one. In the end the french and Americans did call a halt (I think the french sent troops) - but not before there was a lot of needless angst about britain, and all because Blair deliberately stoked the idea that he had influence (when he had none), out of sheer vanity.

Have you noticed that all has been quiet on the foreign policy front since Blair left and Brown has happily allowed David Miliband a free hand at the foreign office? For the first time since 1997 we have a foreign secretary in charge of foreign policy, and how wonderful it has been!

As for Blair handling Northern Rock better - I doubt it. Remember when Farepak wenk bust he refused any govt help - he'd probably have let the rock go bust with grave consequencs to the financial system, simply out of prejudice against the "nationalisation" word.

The 10p tax thing - remember that was agreed while Blair was in power in March 2007. It is however true that Brown wouldn't have even suggested it had he not been goaded by Blair to give something to the middle classes (the 2p cut to the basic rate).

And the world economy would have been the same as now: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would still be gigantic ticking bombs hovering over the world financial system, the dollar would still be crashing making oil go higher, food prices would still be rising due to the Americans refusing to import sugarcane to make ethanol and instead inefficiently trying to make ethanol out of corn  - only Blair would have irritated everyone even more by making Very Self Important Trips to the USA to see Bush about it. It would have made everyone even more furious.

Gordon Brown has made some mistakes on presentation, but I think on a lot of fronts he has been a success: carefully being low-key and soothing on the foreign policy front, getting the Human Embryo Bill through parliament (for the first time in an age we have a PM who is studiedly neutral on religion - how refreshing compared to the excessively religious Blair), going ahead with protections for temporary workers, protections for aupairs and foreign domestics so they can leave Britain instead of being trapped as servants in households they hate, going ahead with nuclear, wind and solar power, extending the hours GPs are  open, so that people who work can see their doctor in the evening, the equalities bill putting an end to discrimination of the elderly. All sorts of good Labour things.

But all the Tory press focus on is Brown's awkward presentational skills - they want a change in government and will seize any excuse to get it, and I'm afraid Labour people play into their hands by constantly wondering about the leadership - including this thread about whether Blair would have been better.

We should really get behind him. In Oxford they produced rather good council results by defiantly saying they liked Brown and doing a lot of work on the ground to counter the air war. If labour could be loyal to Michael Foot (a lesser man than Brown, though Foot was magnificent during the Falklands, demanding action with the result that people came back to Labour from the anti-war Alliance), we can be loyal to Brown. We won the 2001 and 2005 election mainly because of Brown's efforts at the treasury. The Labour govt wouldn't have achieved half the things it has without him.

Re: Why Blair should have been allowed (#11)

You are absolutely right about Blair in my opinion, and also about some of the positive changes since Brown took over.

Brown is rather tarnished by being too close to Blair and the discredited (in popular eyes as well as much of the party) New Labour project - rather than being too different to Blair.

His Achillees heel at the moment is the awful press handling, plus, I believe, briefing against him from within the cabinet (this is what I hear anyway - though my well-placed source didn't name names!)

Re: Why Blair should have been allowed (#7)

You must be joking! Blair should have gone in 2004 and let Brown pave the way for an election in 2005, when things were going reasonably well for Labour and the fiasco of Iraq had not quite sunk in on the British Public.
Because Blair refused to go, and honour an unwritten agreement, he soured the whole scene for everyone. By 2004 Blairs best work had been done, only NI remained, but the train had already been set on that and Brown would have completed the job.

Re: Why Blair (#5)

Most "Hypothetical" Opinion polls on the subject placed Cameron and Blair at a dead heat at around 39% of the vote each.

It's something I'd agree with, the policies haven't actually changed. But Tony at least looked like he believed what he was doing was the right thing.