Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll

See here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4100100.ece

Conservatives: 45%
Labour: 25%
Liberal Democrats: 20%

The two most worrying things for Labour are that, firstly, this poll was taken over the weekend - i.e. during the Tory sleaze allegations, and secondly, Labour is regularly polling only 5% ahead of the Lib Dems. We're in danger of falling into third place, as with the local elections in May...






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Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#1)

Possibly because Cameron has been very definitive in his handling on the sleaze with the MEP's and such. He's sent in the "Cameron-Cleanup Crew" and is likely to order the replacement of all the Tory MEP's involved in the corruption.

That and the British people are becoming increasingly euro-sceptic and have been told repeatedly by MEP's from both the Lib Dems and Tories that it's a horrible bubble that actively encourages such conduct and that hasn't been audited properly in the last 15 years also helps the Tories more than hinders them. Cameron's coming up roses by being definitive and rapid in dealing with this. In a single week he's forced or sacked the worst offenders, and fired his cleanup crew to make them more accountable.

Labour also remaind eeirly silent on the whole sleaze issue over the weekend also, with only the Lib Dem's  who's MEP, iirc blew the whole report in the first place, being the loudest about it.

In my opinion, however, I feel that most members of the public are aware that all politicians are sleazy in one way or another, and at the moment there's only one party repeatedly calling for calls of transparancy, and is actively pursuing it.

It's MP's are now on the voluntary declarations-of-expenses register in Parliament, and now it's MEPs are getting the crap kicked out of them for claiming money and funneling it when they shouldn't.

It's perhaps Cameron's decisive moves, and even ensuring his house is in order long before a GE that's keeping the momentum with him. 

Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#3)

I think you overestimate how much attention people pay to politics.


I don't think people are necessarily becoming more eurosceptic. People are annoyed about the referendum issue, of course. To put it in perspective, the treaty was jusat full of nonsense rather than constitutional changes, and only 4 major parties in Europe were against it. I can't remember the fourth, but other than the Tories, one was the Greek communists, the other the Dutch animal welfare party. Conservative parties worried about sovereignty across Europe voted for the treaty.


I don't think people are as avid about political detail as us. I don't think people are warming to Cameron either. Personally, I think he detoxified the party for Tories, and is creaming off the support of former Labour supporters who feel betrayed by Brown.


We do need to sort out MP's expenses, and party political funding though.

Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#4)

If you can find the time to remove your head from David Cameron's backside, perhaps you'd care to explain why the Tories haven't taken a leaf out of Labour's book and got their MEP's accounts independently audited?

Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#7)

Would suggest the leadership be proactive and be clear exactly what they will do with MEPs who break the rules before Gudio spills the beans...

"Incidentally, Guido has been busy gathering evidence of LibDem and Labour MEPs using European Parliament expense funds in a systematic way to fund their party machines. So don't expect to hear much complaining about this from them..."

Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#2)

Sorry, that should be " fired his cleanup crew into Eurpe to make them more accountable."

The simple truth is..... (#5)

.... that no-one gives a d*mn about MEPs. Europe is seen as one big gravy train.

The 10 year old allegations against Spelman have more weight than yesterday's allegations against MEPs and even the Spelman allegations look very weak.

Finally there is the curious "british electorate" effect. Scandals that damage the parties in the eyes of the electorate have, historically, depended on the party. Tories are damaged by sex scandals and Labour by money scandals. On that basis the tories are safe for now....

Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#6)

Even given the public non-interest in the recent Tory sleaze allegations (which, as people have alluded to above, are quite inconsequential, especially given that the Spellman allegations are 10 years old), our own party's flirtation with sleazy activities in recent years will hardly see the electorate turn back to us as the 'non-corrupt' alternative. After 11 years in office, we have accumulated as bad a reputation as the Tories (perhaps unjustly so, but that is what I fear 'public perception' to be at the moment), so any current or future allegations of corruption against them will not benefit us, but increase the levels of cynicism and apathy amongst the electorate.

 

It is unlikely that the Tories will do anything wrong that between now and the GE that has enough gravitas to swing the support our way.

 

Our opportunity to swing the polls back to Labour will either come from when the Tories finally put policy to paper and (hopefully) reveal their true colours or (my preference) take control of the agenda ourselves and make some positive and progressive strides in policy over the coming months which will capture the imagination of the electorate.

Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#8)

Reading Polly Toynbee in the Guardain one can understand why.  The point is not so much that Cameron is up to 45, it is that Labour under Gordon is down to 25 and continuing to decline.  Does anyone really think that Gordon can get Labour back on the rails?

Re: Tories 20 points ahead in Times Populus poll (#9)

Realistically, probably not. It is unlikely that we will win the next general election, but the moment we begin acted like a defeated party; the more we make the Tories look like the party of government.

 

There’s an interesting blog on political betting about how Labour might win the General Election,

 

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/06/10/is-this-how-labour-could-win-in-october-20 08/