AV: No referendum necessary

First posted on Progress blog:

<h3 class="entry-header">
When Labour's 1997 manifesto pledged a referedum on the voting system used to elect the Commons, it was in the specific context of a "proportional alternative" to be established by an Indepdent Commission (though when this body reported under that chairmanship of Roy Jenkins recommending the proportional AV+ system, it was effectively sidelined).  The case for a referendum was predicated on the understanding that the alternative would herald a substantial shift in the political culture of the nation: it would require widespread boundary changes; it would change the dynamic of the single member - constituency link; in reflecting the real balance of support between parties it would limit the capacity of single political parties to form an executive exlusively from within its own ranks, requiring a more consensual and co-operative style of politics; and would allow smaller parties greater access to representation.  In total, changing the voting system to a proportional system would have a substantial impact on the way democracy functions, and thus it was felt that the decision should rest with voters themselves.

The Alternative Vote, whilst it might in some ways valuably augment the present FPTP voting system and require a shift in the methods of voting from the use of X's to numerical preferences, would not substantially impact upon the culture of our politics.  Yes, each elected MP would require the support of a majority of those voting, and it would put an end to the fear of votes "splitting" to unintended effect.  However, it would not have the kind of radical impact of a PR system.  The single member consitutency link/monopoly would remain intact.  There would still not be a situation where all votes counted equally.  Seats would still not be distributed in proportion to votes received, so it would still be entirely possible for a party have an exclusive grip on government with a minority share of the vote.  And it would not help to extend the range of parties represented at Westminster. 

So why is Jack Straw still insisting that if Labour was to bring forward proposals on AV, it would still b ebound by a referenum promise made on an entirely different basis?  The government didn't hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty for precisely this reason.  Is it really worth the expense of a national referendum and the effort to build support for a measure which, though in some sense a step forward from FPTP, hardly offers the basis for the real reforms our political system needs?  Why not include a promise to bring in AV in the next manifesto, and include provision for voters to determine whether there is still an ongoing need for a proportional element?



Display: Sort:

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#1)

Exactly - I don't think any referendum is necessary for a move to AV - just make it clear in the manifesto that Labour plans to ditch FPTP in favour of AV if we win the next election.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#2)

Here's a better idea: let's stick with FPTP and oppose any change to the electoral system for the House of Commons, and instead concentrate on actual policies that people care about. Too radical?

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#3)

People do care about the governance of the country. And better governance leads to better legislation. Surely you'd recognise Tom that our current system (whether it be the Commons, Lords, devolved institutions or local government) is not very democratic at all?

Maybe it will take a Tory overall majority of 150+ on 40% of the vote to change your mind!

FPTP is dying. We just need a PM strong enough to pull the plug on the life support machine.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#5)

"FPTP is dying. We just need a PM strong enough to pull the plug on the life support machine." Hear hear. Alexhilton makes a very strong point too.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#4)

I have to say Tom that improving democracy will improve accountability and that will make for better government whoever is in power.

Perhaps if government were more accountable, we would be more responsive in the entire range of policies.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#6)

"Too radical?"

I think, I hope you're being ironic.  Too conservative.  I think that's the problem, eh?

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#7)

Electoral reform does the opposite of making government more accountable. All it means is that we give the LibDems a permanent, guaranteed place in government, turnout goes down (as it has on every occasion where we've ditched FPTP) and instead of the electorate choosing a government, the politicians do a deal behind closed doors after the polls have closed.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#9)

The Jenkins commission found that had AV+ been used in the 1997 election, Labour would have had a majority of around 60. Labour could've expected a similar majority in 2001. AV+ guarentees strong government, while retaining proportionality.


Your claim about turnout is contradicted by empirical evidence. In Europe, turnout is higher. Besides which, we have only itnroduced PR for devolved assemblies, which have never had FPTP.


As for your third claim, if you added an amendment which said that the largest party always fills the role of PM, it would limit the Lib Dem's bargaining power.


You are in a constituency, where even if Labour faced bloodbath, you would not lose. But Labour has to outflank the Tories on crime and immigration, which makes our electoral campaigns quite distorted. This allows for lies to be spread about how asylum seekers are showered with benefits, or that they make up 20% of the population.

You're losing core voters, and worse, many are not voting in our core constituencies. If you introduced AV+, you would have to fight for every vote in your constituency. Instead of concentrating on 'buzz issues', or pandering to populist rhetoric, you could campaign on issues like universal childcare, or improved care for the elderly.

I don't believe any of your claims are founded. AV+ does allow for a greater say for third parties, and voters, but does not legalise political blackmail. I have made a suggestion that would guarentee that the Lib Dems couldn't threaten to form a government with someone else. If you couldn't form a coalition, and another election had to be called, then the Lib Dems political menipulation would be exposed quickly.

The point is, that while you may claim that AV+, and party funding, and Parliament reform are issues that ordinary voters don't care about, well, you're right. However, while these policies may sound unsexy, they're the only way that politicians will be able to listen properly to ALL ordinary voters. You cannot introduce radical policies, if you don't radically transform Westminster.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#10)

I can't see with PR or AV would necessarily mean giving the LibDems permanent power. That's just propaganda. If anything, proper electoral reform might well marginalise them in the medium and long term.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#14)

How can you think this is "propaganda"? What possible result of a general election held under AV or any other form of PR would not leave the Liberals with the balance of power?

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#15)

I've provided two occasions. The AV+ system recommended by a commission set up by your own government (it's mine too, though a little more yours than mine), predicted stable majorities for Labour in 1997 (and therefore 2001). It was around 60.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#16)

Sorry, I misread the report. It was 25 for 1997. But Labour still would have had a majority in 2001

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#11)

The majority of people don't choose the government now. At the last election, only 21% of the electorate did (or 35% of voters) - but certainly not a majority.

With AV, the Lib Dems wouldn't be in government all the time because AV is no more proportional than FPTP. But the LibDems would win more seats under AV (which is only fair given their vote numbers), it eliminates tactical voting, it means every MP must have been elected by the majority of his / her constituents and it allows all voters to have a say on who becomes their MP even they put a minority party down for their first preference.

Now if we had PR in the upper chamber (which is likely), then yes, the government would have to do deals with the LibDems in order to get legislation through. But this is only fair isn't it? Labour on its own did not get a majority of the votes at the last election, but Labour and the LibDems combined did. Governments who only get 35-40% of the vote should be made to compromise in order to better reflect the votes cast.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#17)

Tom,

Proportionality certainly doesn't mean permanent government for the LibDems. FPTP in Britain's principal politics holds back the restructuring of the party system that would come from PR.

Apart from the old, traditional "Liberals", LibDems support has been built on protest votes. PR in the Commons would likely result in the splintering of Labour and the Conservatives into sub-parties.

But when people are fed up with a ruling Labour Party, this means that there is potentially another, differently nuanced Labour Party available for a voter to support, ending the flow of protest votes to the LibDems from Labour and the Conservatives.

In fact, the LibDems for so long have had to pander to both left and right that they no longer hold the relatively clear ideology of the old-style "Liberals".

We will not achieve meaningful electoral reform until we can debate the issue without reference to what is good for the Labour Party. I am a Labour man to my bones yet I'm not in politics for the benefit of the party, I'm in politics because I want to see a better Britain.

If Britain is governed by a social democratic coalition dedicated to ending poverty, saving the planet, fighting bigotry and empowering the disempowered, do I care if there are some Liberals - or even Greens - in the mix?

Yet people will be rightly cynical if the debate is about what is good for us. My fear is that the only likelihood of PR is in the event of a hung parliament - when the final form proposed will be hashed out over two days by whichever party is willing to do a deal with the LibDems. Such a form would be entirely built around benefiting political parties, not the public.

Instead, we should be having a public debate about the benefits to Britain of having a healthy democracy and winning public support for this step.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#18)

Tom, I'd suggest - a radical thought I know - that you take a look at the government's own Review of Electoral Systems, which finds that PR systems have between 5-10% higher turnout than our FPTP system, and finds no evidence that smaller parties wield undue influence.

I'm afraid your attitude to this question demonstrates precisely the kind of ill-informed complacency amongst the PLP that has put the party at its lowest standing since Michael Foot's leadership. 

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#8)

What is the supposed advantage of AV without a referendum?  It just makes the "Labour doesn't trust the people" attack easier. Which will presumably add another 0.5-2% to the anti-Labour swing and cost another 10-40 Labour MPs their seats.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#12)

Correct. And while I support electoral reform Tom Harris is right when he implies it is an issue of minimal importance to the voters.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#13)

This is true, but you can't concentrate on issues outside Westminster, if you don't clean up matters inside of Westminster.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#19)

Well for a start off the pool of "voters" is rapidly diminishing - precisely because the majority of people realise that their votes actually don't make much of a difference.  PR might not be the first idea to come up on the doorstep, but complaints about the electoral system emerge in more oblique ways - like "you're all the same", which is the product of parties having to appeal to a small group of swing voters in a handful of marginals. 

And the argument for not having a referendum on AV is that it isn't actually a system that has fundamental effects on the way we are governed.  It is a small step forward, but if we are to have a referendum on the voting system, it really should be for a system whcih could have a really positive effect in renewing our politics.

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#20)

The pool of voters is NOT diminshing. Conservative votes are going up. See C&N and The London mayoral election .

Labour voters are not turning up. To suggest that changing the electoral ststem is going to make any difference at all is clutching at straws.

It's engagement with voters , making them trust you (they do not have to like you - see the Conservatives), and ensuring you act in their and the country's interests.
And being reasonably competent at doing what you do and explaining why you are doing it...
And being seen to be open and transparent and honest whilst doing it.




Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#21)

Turnout IS in long-term historical decline.  And just how do you appeal to voters in general when our campaigns only attempt to win people over in less than 20% of the seats which are considered marginal.

No one is suggesting that changes in voting systems are a magic wand irrespective of policies.  The point is that when every vote - in every seat - really makes a difference, the political incentives to build a broad coalition of support are all the stronger. 

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#22)

I would not like to see a change in the voting system without a referendum, though I do tend to be in favour of AV - though I'd like to see it on a single member constituency basis.

There is no reason to suppose that it would lead to a permanent LibDem minority govt supporting which ever larger party had the most seats - but there would be times when a coalition was required ... but that's no different to the current position is it?

What it would do is reduce the risks of a govt being elected with a majority of the seats but with a minority of the votes - which could happen at the moment if Labour get c36% and the Tories get c38%...

Re: AV: No referendum necessary (#23)

The problem with referendums is that they tend to lose focus on the issue in hand, and become simple opportunities to kick out at the government.  I agree that any change with substantial consitutional implications needs to to have been endorsed by the voters.  But AV is more of an augmentation of present arrangements than a radically new mode of election.