Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election

snowflake5 Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 03:25:53 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

"Friends" say Brown to trigger a leadership election at some point in next parliament if Labour win the general election



According to reports he is likely to step down in the middle of the next parliament if Labour win. By then he'll be in his 60's and ready for retirement. If Labour loses, he'll have a year's transition in the way Michael Howard did for the Tories, to allow a debate.

This is not "official" at all. It seems to be friends briefing. Some people think it would be bad to make an actual announcement the way Blair did in case it weakens Brown for his remaining years.

Actually Blair's announcement in late 2004 made Labour start to climb in the polls again. And a leaders strength comes from the polls (On 24/09/04 Labour were behind the Tories by 3% according to Populus, Blair made his announcement on 1st October, and the next Populus poll on 7/11/04 showed Labour 1% ahead - and Labour went ahead and won the general election).  Blair did lose authority after he announced his departure - but the difference between his situation and Brown's is that there is no obvious successor to Brown, so there is no-one to whom power will flow if he does make an announcement. Brown would therefore retain authority right up to the leadership election in the next Parliament. 

I hope the Prime Minister decides to make an official announcement - it at least stops the constant press speculation and will let him get on with the job till the general election. It's also in accordance with Labour tradition that the leader gets to face the electorate for at least one general election. It will give Brown 5 - 6 years as Prime Minister, which is enough given that he's already held the Chancellorship for 10 years. It would set a new precedent that Labour Prime Ministers don't go on beyond eight years. It gives us a chance to work a smooth transition. And all the potential contenders will know where they stand and have time to prepare properly for their stab at the Labour leadership.

The cynics will say that Labour will lose the next election in any case. But the dire opinion polls are mainly down to people's fears about the economy, which are being ferociously stoked by the press. The economy however looks like it will pull through - which means the scaremongering can be dismissed as just another attempt of the press to scare the public they way they tried to do over SARS and bird-flu. There is all to play for, and Labour should hold it's nerve.

Do people think that Brown should make an official announcement? And who will the likely successors to Brown be, and what are members looking for in the next leader? Post answers in the comments section

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Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election | 19 comments (19 topical)

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#1)

by jkitleft on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 04:09:27 PM GMT

I think we need a radical leader. I don't get that sense from David Milliband. I would prefer either Ed Balls or Yvette Cooper. Perhaps even Harriet Harman. I find the Foreign Secretary creepy.


Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#2)

by snowflake5 on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 04:15:13 PM GMT

We need someone who can unite the middle classes with the working classes and appeal to both. I agree that David Miliband is too cold. Ed Balls is very intelligent (and very Essex-like, so with appeal in certain parts of the south), but he's made too many enemies.

The beauty of saying that the transition will happen in the next parliament is that someone could come forward whom we arn't aware of now. Blair did a real dis-service to the party in hanging onto the Blunkets, Mandelsons and Jowells and not promoting people in the 2001 parliament. There are plenty of backbenchers who were in their early forties then, who had they been promoted may have been potential contenders. Ah well. No use crying over spilt milk. But from now on, we need to succession plan better. I think in the 90's people were so focused on getting into power they weren't thinking beyond that. It's a different game now.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#4)

by jkitleft on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 05:13:58 PM GMT

Exactly. Every successful electoral coalition is built on appeal to middle classes and working classes. Better yet, we can do this without ruining our social-democratic credentials. Blunkett seemed to permeate Labour with ultra-conservative thought, and it further disenchanted liberal middle-class support. Then we have broken down our working-class foundations with the 10p tax row.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#17)

by Curlew on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 10:04:51 PM GMT

God Forbid.. any of that lot


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#18)

by Ernesto on Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 05:38:41 PM GMT

Shaun Woodward, anyone??


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#19)

by jkitleft on Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 07:15:18 PM GMT

I know, I know...but, there doesn't seem to be anyone exciting in the PLP. In about twenty years time, I'll put an X next to the name of Chuka Umuna or Yasmin Quershi.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#3)

by NB on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 04:54:56 PM GMT

If he lasts that long. The only reason people haven't ditched him already is that all the prospective leaders consider it a poisoned chalice at the moment. To quote the Guardian "it may have been your lifelong ambition to be master of a White Star liner. But you wouldn't wait until it had hit the iceberg and was sinking with all hands to make your bid."


Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#5)

by snowflake5 on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 05:14:20 PM GMT

You are showing your ignorance of the Labour party again. All Labour leaders are allowed to face the electorate in a general election at least once. Even Michael Foot got his chance, though his colleagues were in despair. Only if the gods roll the dice (eg John Smith having a heart-attack) does this not happen.

Knifing the leader is more the style of the Conservatives and LibDems. I don't know if all the leadership changes they've had have done them any good. Since 97 the Tories have had five leaders, averaging just over two years each and the LibDems have had four. I don't think the public is impressed.

Secondly a smooth transition with plenty of notice gives the party a chance to think about how it wishes to approach the next decade. It means that even if we lose, there will be a Plan B, which is fully thought through and worked out.

As for the next election - it will be closer than people like you, with your desperate Titanic metaphors, think. And if we lose, we lose - at least we will have gone down united, rather than in a civil war.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#6)

by swatantra on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 06:54:22 PM GMT

It won't make the slightest bit of difference if he makes or does not make an announcement. Speculation about his future in this Parliament will still continue, and grow. Ed and Yvette would get up peoples noses. No, it has to be Milliband, Purnell or even Alan Milburn. All three are Progressives, and European in their outlook. Milliband even has Hugenot ancestry I think; he also looks European, rather than Johnson or Straw who look typically English, but they would only be 'caretakers' if they took on the role.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#7)

by Floating voter on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 08:39:54 PM GMT

"Ed and Yvette would get up peoples noses"

Can't stand them

"No, it has to be Milliband"

What? I've yet to see him act as his own man rather than as a glove puppet.

"Purnell"

Who?

"or Alan Milburn"

No - yesterday's man. He has already walked away from front-line politics and if he did that once he could do it again. David Davis should not be allowed back on the tory fron bench team for the same reason.

"he [Miliband] also looks European, rather than Johnson or Straw who look typically English"

Sorry, but that is NO reason to vote for anyone.

The real problem here is that there does not seem to be anyone else to vote for. Like the tory heavyweights, they have all retired or left politics. There are only lightweights, nobodies and glove-puppets left.

Don't even dare to suggest Deaf Hazel!


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#8)

by Free Radical on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 11:47:59 PM GMT

Milliband even has Hugenot ancestry I think; he also looks European, rather than Johnson or Straw who look typically English

...are you being ironic in some way, or do you really mean this?


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#9)

by NorthernMonkey on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 02:14:36 AM GMT

It's safe to say that Balls and Cooper are not particularly loved among the wider public. The pair of them are probably two of the most unpopular characters in the Cabinet.

I like Miliband personally - he's intelligent and likeable, but most importantly he's just the kind of reformer needed to take Labour forward. He'll be getting my vote come 2010.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#11)

by doctordunc on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 01:21:37 PM GMT

Now I'm a tad confused.  Are we saying that there WILL be a leadership election in 2010, whatever the result of the General Election?  Or have we already written that election off?

Either way it raises a serious question for me: I've been saying 'this isn't about the leader, it's about the policies' and I still think that.  But if the leader's going anyway, then I can't help thinking it should happen now rather than in two years time.  Perhaps the debates and discussions that would make up part of a REAL leadership election might just resuscitate us enough to win.

I don't like planning for losing - it shouldn't be in our nature as a party.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#12)

by snowflake5 on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 02:19:00 PM GMT

I think they are saying he'll step down in the middle of the next parliament if he wins (i.e. round 2012) and about 9 months after the general election if he loses.

Re changing leader right now - no point. I agree with you that the polls are not really anything to do with leader but to do with fuel prices and fear over economy. In 2000 after all, the Conservatives went from 10 points behind us to 8 points ahead just on the fuel issue.

If reports that the oil price is down to financial bubble rather than real demand, then we should see a bursting and a return to normal. The economy also looks to be stronger than the doom-sayers are making out. Twill all become clearer in about six month, and then we should be able to tell where we really stand.


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#14)

by jkitleft on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 03:56:04 PM GMT

Brown needs to respond without a 1992 election induced-prozac overdose that assumes Thatcherism is the work of god, in these times of economic woe. Maybe it's me reading too much Larry Elliott and Polly Toynbee- I don't know, but I think that the city has caused this crisis. Mervyn King said before the local elections that the untaxed pay of city bonuses had been a major cause of the current economic woes.

First of all, he needs to talk about redistribution of wealth. I'm not talking about the morals, I'm talking about the economics of the argument. If you redistribute money to the poor, then they spend it in the local economy, which recycles the money many times over. But if you give tax cuts to the rich, then they spend it on specific markets. The perfect time to have done this would've been in 2007, because the decision to abolish the 10p tax rate was right, but it was incredibly wrong to have doubled the taxation on these low earners-they should've been taken out of tax altogether.

I think we should perhaps say that city bonuses can't be cashed for 5 years, as this stops peverse incentives to take short term decisions. We need to restore some regulations on the city, and on the banks as well as the mortgage markets.

Furthermore, more rights should be given to shareholders to tackle boardroom pay. Many European countries are planning to stop tax relief for any company that pays 1 million euros to any one person. Perhaps we should consider a 45% rate for the top 10% currently in the 40p band. There should be a higher rate for the top 1% definitely. Realigning capital gains with income tax, and enting tax relief on the top rate for pensions would be good as well. Reforming council tax would be a real vote winner.

On low pay we either have two options: up the minimum wage to £7.80 over 2 years, and then increase annualy at the rate of inflation. Or we should change the face of industrial relations in this country for ever by introducing a Democracy in the Workplace bill, which would introduce forms of industrial democracy. This would force employers and the government to look more sympathetically at pay: for public service pay we should pay at the rate of inflation, but should redistribute wealth.

People say that all the companies would quickly pack their bags: when the FT spread this scare story, because two companies who didn't pay much tax in this country anyway left, they forgot to mention that 64 out of the 79 top companies contacted couldn't even persuaded to pretend they were thinking about relocating. 


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#15)

by doctordunc on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 04:12:40 PM GMT

That's not quite what I said - I said it's not the leader it's the policies.  I don't think the polls are completely out of our hands as a party or a government.  I think with bolder, more imaginative and more Labour policies we could turn them around, despite the international situation.  What I mean, is that it isn't Brown the personality that is the problem, as such.

But if Brown's going anyway, I don't really see the point of him staying.  He doesn't seem to be planning on doing anything much with the power he has (the odd gimmick, quite a lot of attempted party-political grandstanding and misjudged wrong-footing, but very little substantial) - well I'm sure there are others who would.

Even though I never supported Brown, I really haven't been part of the 'sack him now' brigade because I've thought it all rather a sideshow about personalities (I mean, the stuff on here about whether people look European or English is ridiculous).  But if Brown is going to go, I don't see any reason for his delay.  You say 'no point' - what will be the point in 2010,11 or 12?


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#10)

by AngryVoter on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 12:08:35 PM GMT

When you look at a person, especially on TV you always look at their eyes. And the problem with Ed Balls, on TV is definitely his eyes, they tend to be either cold or fanatical while his face does the motions of a smile, or a laugh, or sadness, his eyes remain always the same.


Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#13)

by Free Radical on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 02:52:08 PM GMT

Sometimes it's hard to pick up irony in these postings - I hope you are not seriously suggesting that the Labour Party picks our next leader on the basis of their eyes...?


[ Parent ]

Re: Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election (#16)

by NB on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 09:11:52 PM GMT

  1. "Friends of X" means "X, speaking 'off the record'" 99% of the time.
  2. The opinion polls are not low due to the economy - they are low becasue (a) people have totally lost confidence in Brown - Labour MPs are openly saying to journalists what everybody (except perhaps Gordon) knows, the he is hopelessly incapable of effective political leadership.
    (b) Cameron in the most effective politician since Blair but brighter and he understands marketing intellectually as well as intuitively.  He has also had the chance to learn from Blair's mistakes.
  3. Labour under Gordon is "heading for financial collapse". He will presumably be in denial, shouting at people, unable to decide etc.. but it wil not be possible for him to do a U-Turn at the speed of Crewe and to raid the public purse.
Are you really happy to allow this situation to continue?


Gordon Brown to Step Down after Next Election | 19 comments (19 topical)