http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1142543.ece

WOW!!!

I also really doubt that a change of leader can resolve the situation.

Whilst the government's mistakes under Brown's leadership have obviously not helped, surely the Tory lead is the inevitable result of the same party being in office for more than 10 years now and the opposition finally successfully rebranding themselves.

Perhaps some sort of 'core vote' strategy should be considered, even if just to try to ensure that there remains a Labour Party in town halls and active on the streets whilst the Tories enter government.

Brown could also try to establish a reputation for himself in Labour history as a decent man who became PM at the wrong time....he could concentrate all his resources on just a few policy areas such as ending child poverty. And with the mindset that he is going to lose the next election anyway, he could even consider more radical redistributary measures to help achieve this (the kind of taxation policies we are always told will lose us an election).

I believe Matthew Taylor has been saying similar sorts of things.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/04/gordonbrown.localgovernment

Well if there isn't to be a new leader, we need a radical change soon. 

IMO it's worth rolling the dice rather than going through the motions.  Sure the economic situation doesn't help us.  But Brand Brown is now so tarnished it has to be costing us votes. 

 

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/687336/the-economist-is-gordon-brown-doomed.thtml

To be honest, after the 42-day vote is lost and Crewe and Nantwich is lost, the polls could get even worse for us.

And what will happen if the economy goes into recession!

The Tories on these polls would have a 288 majority. I think if any party got a majority that big, there would be little point even having a Parliament at all!

ha, was out drinking and dancing in charing cross last night and bumped into a tory mp. he said "what would you say if i told you there was a 26% lead in a poll tomorrow?"

I said, "YouGov?"

err, Alex, they were right on Mayoral outcome...

Relax everybody, this is just one poll and even if it were right there's still two years until an election has to be called.

 

There are things right now that can be done if the government just recognises them.  For example:

 (1) Scrap the 42-day detention thing. Brown can go in front of the cameras and declare "I am not a dictator, I am the servant of Parliament, and if Parliament decides that it doesn't want it, a true democrat recognises that and bows to it".

(2) Cut the amount of paperwork policemen, nurses and teachers need to do. Everybody in the country knows that this is a problem except, apparently, the people with the power to fix it.

(3) Have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Brown can say "I support the Lisbon Treaty but I recognise the strength of feeling in the country. The public will be given the chance for a vote and I will abide by their verdict"

(4) Ditto referendum Scottish Independence (except obviously campaign for a No vote). Give the English a vote too while you're at it.

(5) Restore 0.22 pistol shooting as long as it conforms to Olympic rules.  Say "We in the Labour Party regard gun ownership as - at least - morally suspect. But we recognise that many people regard us as needlessly intolerant and we recognise, too, the absurdity of holding the Olympics in a country where one of the sports is banned. We also are prepared to distinguish between the law-abiding on the one hand and criminals on the other."

(6) Promise to restore the 10p tax band in the next budget and find the money by getting rid of useless quangos. This must be possible if the will is there.

 

 

 

PS (7) Establish a baseline set of equipment for soldiers. Every soldier should have - as a minimum - personal body armour, night sights etc. Be generous and be obvious in getting soldiers' views on what should be included. This would not cost as much as you'd think; there is a physical weight limit on what can be carried and the big spending on the military is on stuff like fighter aircraft and ships in any case.

Oh come on, we're guests here, try and be constructive

Surely this was inevitable after the elections last week?

No surprise at all really so it doesn't really 'add' to anything in my opinion.

The situation (which is dire) is just as bad as it was before the poll.

Apparently This poll is the worst Labour poll rating for 70 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!

 @BritishAsian

   Can I have some of what you're smoking?

Of course positive thinking is a virtue. And changing the leader - by itself - will do nothing.
The problems are the policies and their implementation.

Change polcy and implement them successfully and there is a chance. Just announce a raft of changes and I'm afraid it's more flimflam.

Since Gordon Brown seems to find it very difficult to admit he can ever make any mistake, then I suggest the chances of the party changing significantly when he's in charge are low. Still, he may have a damscene conversion.

I rate the chances of a new leader being able and willing to change things quite low as there is little sign of any rebellion.

So as an outsider I expect to see few changes. 

Given the shambles in Scottish Labour, however, I do expect changes there and major losses to the SNP next GE.

Peter Hyman makes an excellent suggestion in Today's Times to refresh the Government - move David Miliband to the Treasury.

At a time when domestic issues, even more than ever, top the concerns of ordinary voters, using someone of Miliband's talent on foreign affairs seems to be a waste of resources. It would send a signal that we have a fresh, young and independent mind in the Treasury, give Labour the chance to take the fight to Osbourne and show we have strength in depth.

In fact, how about a straight job swap, with Darling to the FCO?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article3904225.ece 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lets calm down. We had leads of 40 points at times during the Major era. We were reguarly getting over 60%. On election day in 1997, polls were projecting leads of up to 20%.

Brown is too stubborn to change his views. I held on to the chance that an election kicking would force him to re-instate progressive values to Labour. He took the results to mean that Cameron was succeeding thanks to a slick campaign, and that it wasn't his policies that caused such a massive defeat, it was merely a problem of getting the word out.

That's not what I'm hearing. I'm seeing people grimacing at the thought of voting for Cameron, but voting for him anyway, as they feel betrayed by Labour. I've met, and know many who have expressed this view. 

Because Brown doesn't have a coalition of the left and right of the party, there is no way of knowing who could be a viable successor. 

Brown is not more sincere than Blair. I cannot think of an example where Blair actively seeked out the poorer people of this country, in order for an oppertunist display, to score some cheap points. His last budget was a fraudulant one, in order to appease Middle England.

Now he is persuing an even more conservative agenda, because he is mistaking the fact that the Tories support is increasing, as a sign that the support for conservatism is increasing. It isn't. Witness the anger over the 10p tax rate, non-doms, and a lack of regulation over sub-prime mortgages and stock market speculation, over private equity etc.

He is trying to appease fears over Cannabis, with anger from every drugs charity, medical experts etc. Blair wisely introduced semi-decriminalisation. I would like legalisation, but it was a step in the right direction. Rates of mental illness have gone down, it just happens that people who have mental illnesses smoke more cannabis, but they also drink more. Drug use has gone down. I think it's worrying, that the Daily Mail-types are concerned about what's afflicting the mentally ill, but do not comment on the dire state of mental health services. Why are there AT LEAST 8,000 mentally ill prisoners not in psychiatric hospitals. Some have estimated that around 50% of prisoners have a serious mental illness. I am persnally not sure, but it's at least 8,000.

This is a man, I fear, to be far more calculating than Blair. He is one of the architects of New Labour, yet has tried to pass himself off as Old Labour. He tried to buy off Frank Field, according to Martin Kettle, with a government job-twice. He is a tactical, triangulating megalomaniac. I have heard, as well as many others, of how he tried to undermine the three people who were a threat to him being the next Prime Minister: Mo Mowlam, Robin Cook and Ken Livingstone (well, he has a huge power base, he was at least an outside chance). He has continued, at a rate that has exacerbated, New Labour using the op-eds of the Daily Mail and the Sun as a think tank, and a representation of public opinion.

Do these positions sound like a true representation of the right-wing agenda of the Dacre-Murdoch double act?

54% against renewing Trident
70% for redistibution of wealth
66% for allowing workers to determine working hours

He tried to undermine genuine concern about the 10p tax rate, by saying that the 5.3 million pensioners, and young people, and working families would be compensated by tax credits. Then he said that sometimes people would be worse off, but they had been better off in other budgets (despite under-taxing the super rich, thereby not carrying out redistribution of wealth). Then he used smear tactics. Then he tried to buy Field off. Then begrudgingly, he admitted he had got it wrong.

He has made the tax system needlessly over-complicated. it costs money, to move money around. He has forgotten this, by making the tax system endlessly beaurocratic. now he can't compensate the poorer effectively e.g. if he tries to compensate the female pensioners, he'll have to compensate male pensioners, thus the men would be unfairly enriched. He could have taxed the richest 1% at 50%, thereby bringing in £7 billion, and compensated the wretched of these isles, by re-introducing the 10p tax rate that costs- £7 billion.

We are not, in theory, without hope, but I can't see who would re-connect with progressive values, that could help us win a fourth term.

Brown is a stubborn 57 year old who has been a machine politician all his life. It is unrealistic to expect him to be able to change now. It's time we - and he - accpeted that Labour's fortunes can only be restored if he goes. Quickly.

The biggest problem Brown will not drop the 42 day rule, he believes he is right, perhaps he thinks people in the UK will change perhaps not. But worse will be to come, we are in recession retail figures are now in decline.

House prices are on the wain, people are worried over jobs, and of course we are warned to day about power prices going up because power companies cannot accept lower profits.

Labour got it's self into one hell of a mess, it has decided we are all better off within the global market, the global market feels Asian is the place to be, and we are now on the fringe. Hence Browns advice to look at China as a friend, it will build factories here, yes I can see that. especially if we all work 24 hours for £1 a hour.

Labour got it self in a mess Brown made the mistake over the 10p tax band but did not accept his decision was wrong, it was due to us not understanding, well yes he is right, I cannot understand why we are paying more and the rich less.