We certainly have a problem - a complete collapse in our support in the local government elections. The answer is not to move to the left or right. I don’t think many are suggesting a lurch to the right, because of the obvious betrayal of socialism that it would represent. But I also don’t think we need to look to the old left, as people like McDonnell are arguing. The case is no better now than it was in the eighties. The Blairite embrace of the market as a tool to achieve our goals was remarkable, and is at the heart of the success of the last eleven years. It was also what enabled the broad coalition of 1997 to break the Tory stranglehold on power – any attempt to pander more or less to this or that element of the 1997 vote is to destroy the very cohesion which created its power.

Rather, the solution lies in creating a real momentum in the business of government. First, Brown needs to remove the friction issues, like 42 days detention without trial. In the same vein he also needs to absolutely confirm the compensation arrangements over the 10p tax affair, ensuring that not a single person has lost out.  This will end some distractions, and at least reduce the opportunities for backbench unease to manifest itself. Second, he needs to focus on creating a narrative of change, which can only be delivered through a series of policy announcements which are quickly delivered upon. Constitutional reform is one –an 80/20 elected/appointed House of Lords should be agreed upon and then subject to party whip. Another is tax reform – a cut in tax for the lowest incomes paid by an extra rate at 150k, for example, would reinforce the government’s socialist credentials by providing real help to those having to tighten their belts the hardest.

The Brown government is suffering from a kind of very severe midterm blues. But they have been exacerbated by imperfect leadership, a series of unfortunate instances of incompetence, an economic crisis which is 99% not the UK government’s fault and a moderately plausible opposition. The answer to midterm blues is always to make the incumbent government feel like a new government, not through a crass relaunch which everyone calls a relaunch (as we were treated to in January), but through a restatement of aims through clear policies. That’s what produced the Brown Bounce last Summer, so tragically squandered in the Autumn. We’ve done it once: we’ve got to do it again, because if we don’t, we’re back in the wilderness.