YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead

LabourOutlook Fri May 30, 2008 at 12:38:34 AM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

A YouGov poll in Friday's Telegraph gives the following figures:

Conservatives: 47
Labour: 23
Lib Dems: 18

 

More details on the specifics and other questions asked over at Labour Outlook 






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YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead | 43 comments (43 topical)

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#1)

by NB on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:00:57 AM GMT

The Weighted Moving Average gives 44:26:18 a Tory lead of "only" 18 points. But YouGov tends to be ahead of the curve. At the start of the year the WMA was 40:33:17 so Labour have lost support faster than the Tories have gained.  Another 5 months like the last and we'll see 48:19:19.

Also note that 40% of Labour Voters thought that replacing Gordon would improve Labour's chances, 14% thought it would worsen them and 37% that it wouldn't make much difference.  The real issue is not "will Labour win the next election without Gordon?" but "will Labour be beaten into 3rd place at the next election with Gordon?".


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#2)

by treborc on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:38:39 AM GMT

It's to late now, we are stuck with Brown, we should ensure from now on when a Labour leader leaves power we have a real election of the leader and not this pile of rubbish.

I have watched Brown for sometime now and he is lost he has no idea what to do, and his team around him are so silly once the mouth opens people duck.

We now must try to explain silly things like Labour now going to help the most poor to cut heating cost or power , by going around knocking on doors saying if you turn your lights off it will cost less has to be a no brainer  I give up


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#4)

by Floating voter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:33:59 AM GMT

"The best thing Brown can now do for Labour is give the unions some government money for modernisation that they can then give to Labour to save the party."

Are you mad? With all the funding allegations that have been slung about over the last few years, are you seriously advocating "back-channeling" some cash?

How many headlines do you want to see along the lines of "Labour funding scandal"? 


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#5)

by LabourOutlook on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:50:40 AM GMT

He's just a troll. Don't feed him.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#6)

by Prbo on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:52:10 AM GMT

so you may think, but he does have a point - what you think of the suggestion he makes?


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#7)

by LabourOutlook on Fri May 30, 2008 at 12:05:23 PM GMT

what point does he have?


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#9)

by AngryVoter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:06:36 PM GMT

That Labour is basically completely and utterly stuffed funding-wise? I beleive the problem has been that Labour over-relied and overspent an awful lot since 2005 onwards. The fact the party is basically bankrupt that's now really hitting home to many undecided voters and former Labour voters. Personally I reckon they're thinking:

"If this is how their like with our own finances, what are they like with the public finances? I'm not voting for them again and I've voted Labour all my life..."

 

As much as the Tory within me is jumping for joy at the result of this latest poll... I am genuinely concerned that there's going to be a major oppositional vaccum caused by the genuine and general collapse of the Labour core vote. 

I'm serious, Labour is now down to just 23% of the general vote. Not even Major during the 1997 election was this bad. He managed to corner the 30% of the vote. I.E the absolute "core" of the right, and the party finances weren't in a bad shape either.

It really strikes me now that, should an election be called, that will be the result due to YouGov's accuracy. This'd give the Conservatives a majority of... [Don't hate me] 254. That's basically a total and utter anihalation of the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties as opposition. Any kind of opposition.

There's a possibility too now, that the Labour Party will find themselves pushed to third place against the Lib Dems, who are now just 5points behind Labour. If they worked on a coherent and decent political strategy there's every possibility they could. Especially considering the Lib Dems tend to do a smidge better during the actual General Elections....

Usually by about 5 points.

 

Urk. 


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#14)

by snowflake5 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 06:32:20 PM GMT

Angry Voter - I can see why you are worried about having no Labour opposition. Last time the Tories were in an absolute position of hegemony was in 1935, when the Conservative "national government" had 430 MPs, Labour had 154 and the Liberals and other sundries had 29. It gave the conservatives a majority of 242.

The conservatives made such a mess of things that there was an almighty backlash after the war, with Labour sweping into power and setting up the welfare state and utterly changing Britain forever. Conservatives have been railing at the welfare state ever since, but it is still here over 60 years on. Thank you Tories of 1935 for making it all possible :-)


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#16)

by AngryVoter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 07:01:01 PM GMT

Exactly, there has to be a certain degree of balance, even if one party controls every aspect of the state, there has to be some form of opposition. However. I disagree. Nevil Chamberlin was the problem then. He was weak. Then the Tory Titan of Churchill came to power and we won the war.

However, his continued wish to fight and his campaign of such words, especially against the Russians who would come to dominate the next 40 years of our political lives by ruthlessly supressing Eastern Europe. He lost. But the Atlee government only lasted for one term, I shall note.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#18)

by snowflake5 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:58:35 PM GMT

Atlee got re-elected in 1950, and then lost in '51 by just 17 MPs.

But importantly, the things he put in place - the NHS, nationalisation of Bank of England, new town building, the basics of the welfare state - they all held. All the following governments had to accept them.

Thatcher thought she could starve the NHS which would "force" people to go private. Didn't work. People simply elected New Labour to sort it out. All those conservative plans for American-style private insurance schemes etc - they've all come to nought. Cameron actually had to throw in the towel and promise to spend more than Labour on the NHS to get ahead in the polls! He even made himself spend hours practicing Blair's gestures in the mirror to reasure the public. Can the Tories have paid a greater tribute to Labour than that?  Don't you see? We've won the long-term argument about the welfare state.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#23)

by AngryVoter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:58:59 PM GMT

If it's been such a failure, why are parts of my local hospital run by private companies? Why does BUPA exist? Labour hasn't actually fixed many, if any, of the problems that were inherent in the system, the only thing Cameron's promised is to spend it right down on the front line instead of on 26 layers of management.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#28)

by snowflake5 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 01:16:26 PM GMT

HealthCare in Britain is free at the point of use. This is what the Labour party has always wanted - a system where you get treatment no matter your financial situation because the cost is borne by the taxpayer (where the rich subsidise the poor).

The Tory plan in the 80's and 90's was to make the user pay. The Tory plan failed. Simple as that. That's why Bullingdon Dave makes so much about how he love the NHS, how he will spend more tax money than Labour on the NHS, how he's going to increase the number of taxpaid occupational therapists etc etc. He knows he has to commit to the Labour NHS in order to win votes.

Regarding private suppliers, many of these are American and South African, and the Labour government brought them in deliberately because they were outside the remit of the BMA. The BMA is a monolith union much like the Minerworkers Union, and insists on negotiating pay as a standard across Britain, rather than hospital by hospital. However because the BMA is a Tory union, they are given a pass by the press and opposition (we in Labour haven't forgotten how the BMA tried to strangle the NHS at birth, insisting we "stuff their mouths with gold" before they would work in the service).

Therefore when the govt awarded contracts to private suppliers to set up units to get backlogs down, performing for example cataract operations, they asked them to supply their own doctors. Most of the suppliers were American and were able to provide their own doctors and do the job for the taxpayer for a keen price.

The take-up of private insurance has been dwindling - why bother with private insurance when waiting lists are down and when the NHS will happily send you to France to have an operation done if you can't get it done in a timely manner in the UK? Care in the NHS remains a better quality than in private hospitals - most private hospitals are set up for easy-peasy stuff like varicose veins, but as soon as they have an emergency, said private customer is ferried across town by ambulance to - you guessed it - the nearest NHS A&E.

The idea of a tax-payer funded service has completely routed the idea of a service paid by each sick person as they consume healthcare. Tory boys need to accept this. The NHS is the "third rail" of British politics. Threaten it and you die!


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#33)

by jkitleft on Sat May 31, 2008 at 07:37:45 PM GMT

Well, I don't think the Tories will win with a 1997-style majority. I think they'll win with double figure seats. Personally, I think it'll be between 10-60 seats.

Furthermore, i think you are greatly exaggerating the extent to which voters worry about unions. Worryingly, and here I think we can find some common ground, people don't seem to worry about policy. This is a combination of Blair-Cameron Americainised style politics, and the increasingly Heat-like media. In the US for instance, two-thirds support universal healthcare, and non-proliferation. But the Democrats are just as much corporate schills, as are the Republicans. Therefore, the Karl Roves and Lee Atwaters can focus on wedge issues like gay marriage, and abortion. There are more socially liberal Republicans than we think there are.

But despite a feeling of superiority brought on over here, by the feeling that America is laughable due to its religious fundamentalists, and corruption in washington, this is negated by the segregated Northern ireland, and by the uber-rich Labour fundraisers buying Labour policy. Why don't we have a proper Corporate Manslaughter act, the one health and safety measure that matters above all others?

Meanwhile, New Labour has to launch headline-grabbers, which have little to no effect upon, well- anything. When "discussions" about politics arise, they are about the likeability, charisma, and supposedly, leadership. The media prints stories of  visceral issues. Imagine if the Guardian's headlines, were the exact opposites of the Sun's headlines. "MURDOCH NOT PAYING TAX", "SUPER RICH TAX SCAM" et al. Instead, the issue of benefit-scroungers arise. The media spreads far-right hyperbole about asylum seekers, and seeks to induce a paranoia into the public. I had a heart operation in February, and had to wait less than 3 months for it. Obviously, that is not going to sell. So the media has to come up with scare stories.

I am criticised for concentrating on statistics. I believe it gives me a more objective analysis. Some say for isnatnce, for my evidence that when I went to hospital, the care was excellent (incidentally, in the last 10 years when I can remember going to appointments about my heart etc. the care has improved year by year), that I just got lucky. And when I provide evidence that waiting lists have gone down, when juxtaposed with evidence that when I was born during the 1992 election campaign, the maternity wards and ICU's were being cleaned with shockingly dirty water, people say that it's just government spin. Well, the BMA has been complaining for years that some private surgeons are losing their jobs, because waiting lists have gone down.

In private, the then Shadow Health secretary, Liam Fox said about why he was opposing Labour's healthcare reforms: "If Labour fixes the NHS, we're f***ed."

The same tactics apply to the current debate about youth crime. Newspapers realise that people are inherently mawkish. People get incredibly immersed in the details of a murder, that it can often disrupt their objective outlook.

People need to be more interested in policy, and if people were concerned about the unions, part of me would be glad to be able to discuss policy. I personally think we should have a privacy law against the trivial matters, particuarly sex lives, of a politician being reported (this wouldn't ban a scandal about say, improper dealings being arisen). Sadly, atm, it looks unlikely people can get immersed in policy details.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#31)

by LabourOutlook on Sat May 31, 2008 at 03:51:17 PM GMT

It wasn't the fact that you said that party is in deep financial trouble that led me to believe that you were trolling - it was the fact that you said the party should launder taxpayers money through the unions.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#8)

by snowflake5 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:54:13 PM GMT

Hold your nerve people. This is just a function of fuel and food prices, plus hysteria in the press that were are "certain" to go into a recession. When it turns out that things are ticking over, people will calm down.


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#11)

by AngryVoter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:17:16 PM GMT

Blaming the press is the usual "stock phrase" that I saw Mr Hoon use several times on last night's Question Time. He got the correct scorning laughter.

Fact is papers preach to their choirs. I don't buy the Pro-Labour Mirror, I buy the Pro-Tory Mail. A friend of mine buys the Independant. Why? Because we each prefer the styles and columnists.

Blaming the press constantly for every last woe the party suffers is silly and false, it's also what caused Major's government to drift as Major began to scour the headlines every morning before doing anything. We're seeing the same happen now only much much worse in a much shorter period of time. The papers report the facts with their own editorial slant. The "woes" extend much deeper and people have finally snapped.

To be historical and all, Labour's never been this far. It's never held a third term before the Tories bounced back into Number 10. With the death of Blairism you may be staring the death, or near-collapse, of the Labour Party in the face. 


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#12)

by snowflake5 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 06:22:43 PM GMT

The press does get hysterical about things. Remember SARS? Remember how bird-flu was going to get all of us? This is what they do. They whip things up in an effort to scare their readers (apparently this sells newspapers - even though after every episode their sales fall...)

The press are being hysterical about the economy at the moment, not just here in Britain, but in America. America was "supposed" to be in recession in the first quarter, according to the press - only it turned out they'd just held on and had not contracted.

It will be the same here. Once it's clear that it was all a scare, voters will calm down and move onto something else. Twas ever thus.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#13)

by AngryVoter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 06:31:10 PM GMT

Wrong, I was talking to an economist friend of mine whole told me it "was a recession and it wasn't." The economy still grew, but not at the same rate as commodity inflation. Thus it was still a recession, but didn't see the economy retract or fall.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#15)

by snowflake5 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 06:37:40 PM GMT

Angry Voter - published GDP is Real GDP - a deflator is applied to the nominal GDP. The deflator the Americans use is different to the Federal Reserve's "Core CPI" which excludes fuel and food (which incidently is completely different to our CPI which includes food and fuel).

The GDP deflator takes account of everything. They used a deflator of 3.5%. Therefore believe it when they say the US economy did not contract in Q1.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#34)

by jkitleft on Sat May 31, 2008 at 07:46:35 PM GMT

Well, the press does whip up fear. Fact. They distort the true picture, especially the Suns and Mails, through anecdotal hyperbole, which has no reflection upon an objective outlook of a situation.

I'm not blaming Labour's woes on press coverage. There is a mood amongst the defecting core vote of our party (to the Tories, but not because they are becoming more right-wing), for a more progressive, social-democratic Labour. Even the Mail has criticised the super-rich now. There is a movement, especially on economic matters, to the left. Yes, I know you can dismiss this by saying that the Tories support is increasing. Fact is, that our previous core vote inherently hate the triangulating tatics of New Labour. They are only moving to the Tories, because they feel betrayed by Labour. Here's my evidence. When it looked like there would be a shift under Brown, support exploded for Labour. Now many can see no difference (although I believe there are many big differences), they want to punish the guys at the top.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#37)

by otware on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:44:18 PM GMT

I don't see any differences between Blair and Brown, only than Brown is useless while Blair was a fantastic politician. Maybe I'm just cynical and angry though...


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#47)

by jkitleft on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:47:04 PM GMT

Sorry, that was meant to be differences between Labour and the Tories.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#10)

by Croslander on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:09:55 PM GMT

Nick Clegg is not a bright spark - he is basically a meretricious geography teacher with a monotone drawl.


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#39)

by Anonymous X on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 12:51:23 AM GMT

Agreed. I also think Nick "Little David" Clegg's greatest weakness in terms of his presentation is that he comes across as a Cameron clone...


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#19)

by RedRooster on Fri May 30, 2008 at 09:04:15 PM GMT

I'm entertained by the sheer number of people who are so young that they don't remember the concept of mid-term unpopularity.

I mean I'm young too- but that's why I go to Labour meetings filled with old duffers who actually have some perspective. 


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#41)

by otware on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 02:41:25 AM GMT

'Mid term blues' aren't a myth. It's a fact of western politics. People get tired of the government after the inevitable scandals, mismanagement etc. Also the pendulum is constantly swinging between opinions.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#45)

by otware on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 02:32:08 PM GMT

Just cos the 1999 and 2003 midterms buck the trend doesn't mean it's a myth, christ. What about 2008?? Labour will improve by election time - not enough to win, but it won't be as bad as it is now.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#20)

by NB on Fri May 30, 2008 at 09:15:15 PM GMT

The only PM since polls began who has had such negative ratings is Major and this was after 4 years and with a wafer-thin majority.  Brown has sunk like a stone in 10 months.  In 5 more months, if things go on as they have in the last 5, Labour will be polling lower than the LibDems. Can anyone explain why, if they don't vote Tory, a reason for not voting LibDem?


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#21)

by snowflake5 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 09:35:21 PM GMT

"Can anyone explain why, if they don't vote Tory, a reason for not voting LibDem?"

Simple, the LibDems have promised to prop up a Tory govt - see here. So if you vote LibDem you get a Tory. It's not a huge surprise - Clegg is a sort of Tory-lite and he has moved the party right. He's very different to old Charlie Kennedy and you can see the change.

But of course this means that if you are on the centre-left, you have just one choice - Labour. If you are on the centre-right, you have two choices, the Tories, and Tory-lite (aka LibDem). 

I imagine the LibDem standing in the polls is because lots of people, like you, don't yet realise that the LibDems have switched sides. They still imagine that the LibDems are a centre-left alternative to Labour when they are really a centre-right alternative to the Tories. But don't worry, Labour will be busily publicising the switch in LibDem policy - a vote for the LibDems is a vote for the Tories. 


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#24)

by AngryVoter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:07:29 PM GMT

What Nick's promised though is on a "Case by Case basis" similar to the Tories in Hollyrood or Labour with Plaid in Cardiff Bay. It's a semi-prop up because Nick does have a few more toryist policies. Though to me it's the Tories, Tory-lite [Blairite-Labour] or Lib Dem [Tory-SpecialK]

Then we have Brown, which really doesn't work.

To me though, politics has lurched back to the centre-right in general, people want a definitive cap on immigration [non EU or not] and they want definitive tax cuts. Not rebates but actual cuts. To me these are more Tory-like policies than traditional Labour areas, and it's certainly not in character for the Labour party of the past decade. 


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#35)

by jkitleft on Sat May 31, 2008 at 08:15:24 PM GMT

Oh I don't think it's true.

1) All the papers are blasting the super-rich

2) People can't see why private equity firms, and non-doms are escaping the tax system

3) The 10p tax rate is not a right-wing issue. The Tories (far more right-wing then people give them credit for), have not promised to reintroduce the 10p tax rate. they have uttered that it depends on the economic conditions. Traditional Labour voters believe tax rises on the poor are inherently wrong.

4) For the first time, a majority favour getting rid of our nuclear deterrent, and are against the re-introduction of capital punsihment.

5) Over two-thirds favour redistribution of wealth, and elements of industrial democracy.

6) I don't think people are worried about immigration per se. But they are worried about the supposed effects upon salaries, services, and housing. It is pure garbage to suggest immigrants are given institutionalised preferential treatment. But it is right-wing businessmen who like immigration, as it means they can push down the wages of cleaners, builders, and waiters. It is the unions who are concerned, and ask for wages, particuarly in these three industries, but also in other low-paid jobs, to be pushed up. It is right-wingers who don't like the council housing building programmes, not left-wingers who support it to remove the lie that immigrants are given preference in housing ques (only 5% of council houses are given to those who are foreign-born), and to help solve the housing crisis. I think certain standards required of immigrants, aren't right-wing. I don't know any people, including so called 'namby-pamby lefties' who are against immigrants being required to learn English. But we must provide adequate funding for english-language classes.

Littlejohnian lies peddle the myth that multiculturalism is inherent with immigration. I believe multiculturalism is inherently bigoted, as it stops mixing of those with different colour skin, and it prevent women and homosexuals breaking out of socially-conservative communities. The fight against terrorism, is more of a cultural one, and we will do more by stopping funding for ethnic based comunity centres, or stopping funding to faith schools, than a police raid will. So concerns about immigration aren't all right-wing. I consider myself to the left of New Labour, and I can be concerned by the effects of mass migration, but I favour left-wing ideals to incourage integration, and to stop fears about immigration.

So, this is why i think the public is moving towards the Left. Concerns you outlay about immigration and taxation, are concerns that actually resonate with Labour voters. I have detailed concerns about immigration. But tax cuts for the poorer, and to an extent the middle-class are supported by Labour voters. As my joint favourite figure on the American liberal movement, the late Texan lefty, Molly Ivans put it:

"If you give tax cut to working- and middle-class citizens, they will run right out and spend it, thus pushing up demand, thus enabling you to reopen your fourth factory. If you give tax cuts to the wealthy, they may invest the money in a fifth factory, which will also stand idle because of a lack of demand, or they may save the money, since they don't need anything, or they may buy a polo pony with it."



[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#36)

by madasafish on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:00:18 PM GMT

You could have written Michael Foot's manifesto.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#38)

by otware on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:50:46 PM GMT

And you could have written Margaret Thatcher's manifesto you Tory.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#43)

by jkitleft on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 01:36:30 PM GMT

Don't give him the time of day otware. I outlined an argument which although credible Tories may have disagreed with, could understand. I outline concerns about immigration, and about taxation, in a cetre-left manner. He had a visceral reaction. As always. Ignore him.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#46)

by Wiseman on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 03:23:26 PM GMT

what a good manifesto!!


Wiseman


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#25)

by RedRooster on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:07:39 PM GMT

I'd actually urge caution on this tactic.  In Southampton we saw the Lib Dem vote collapse and it go overwhelmingly to the Tories.  Those weren't naive left-wing voters; those Lib Dem voters were basically small c Conservatives who would never vote Labour and finally felt OK with coming out of the closet.

I'm more than a bit worried that if we go around shouting about how Nick Clegg backs the Conservatives, a lot of Lib Dem voters might view that as a tacit endorsement and vote Conservative when it's a straight Labour-Tory fight. 


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#26)

by AngryVoter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:17:35 PM GMT

Exactly, I saw somebody comment on here "Oh well, this is our get out of jail card! Vote Plaid, Get Tory, Vote SNP, Get Tory" etc etc.

If that got published folks'd just go "Sod it, might as well actually vote Tory then" and vote. It'd anihalate all of the votes for the smaller regional parties [not necessarily a bad thing] and turn the whole country Tory-Blue [To me, not necessarily a bad thing] 


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#29)

by snowflake5 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 01:23:19 PM GMT

In Southampton it was more about elderly people voting Tory to get a discount on their council tax, wasn't it? And it's not yet clear that the Tories will be able to deliver - Southampton has always tried not to increase council tax by much (always circa 3.5-4%), and does not get much grant from government and has been tightly run - not much fat to cut.

I see no problem with telling people that a vote for the LibDems is a vote for the Tories. The only reason to hide it is if you think a LibDem MP is different from a Tory one. From where I'm sat, if they are supporting a Tory govt, they are quasi Tories.

Many LibDem voters in the last election were to the left of Labour and voted LibDem because Charlie kennedy was a Labour-like figure. They'd be horrified to find their vote ended up putting Tories in government.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#32)

by Anonymous X on Sat May 31, 2008 at 03:54:21 PM GMT

This is true. There are obviously centre-right voters whom support the LibDems, but more recently that party has gained votes and seats from disaffected centre-left voters, due to Liberal opportunism over certain issues like the war and university fees. We can win some of those centre-left votes back. - it is possible.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#44)

by jkitleft on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 01:39:21 PM GMT

That is true. But I used to live in Cornwall, and while Labour voters often voted for the Lib Dems, there were centre-right leanings coming from the mouths of Lib Dem activists. In rural areas, it helps for the grassroots to be more eurosceptic than their leadership.


[ Parent ]

Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#22)

by NorthernMonkey on Fri May 30, 2008 at 09:37:55 PM GMT

The best thing Brown can now do for Labour is give the unions some government money for modernisation that they can then give to Labour to save the party

A very silly thing to say.


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#27)

by madasafish on Sat May 31, 2008 at 03:40:48 AM GMT

I'm sorry... does anyone here seriously think - I mean really seriously think - that voters vote for parties other than Labour/Conservative because of what the two main parties say?

Seriously?

If so, please explain why they don't vote for the two main parties but trust them enough to act on what they say...

Self conflicting logic.

People vote for small parties when the alternatives either don't exist or because the alternatives don't offer an attractive option.

See: the SNP in Scotland. (People distrust the Conservatives and Labour are unpopular)
The BNP in Stoke on Trent (no choice apart from Labour - no real Conservative presence as Stoke has been 100% Labour for decades)


Re: YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead (#48)

by jkitleft on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:50:02 PM GMT

I think that the debate on drugs prohibition has never been more important. We have troops dying in Afghanistan because of it. We have people, especially children dying in our streets because of it. Prohibition causes this crime. I think we should legalise drugs, but the public isn't ready for full legalisation. I think we should break the ground by legalising cannabis.


YouGov gives the Tories a 24 point lead | 43 comments (43 topical)