Cameron can't win on yesterday's performance
The Listener Fri May 02, 2008 at 03:16:59 PM GMT 
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I don't mind David Cameron getting over-confident and bragging at the 19th hole after yesterday's results outside London.
On the current estimate of share of the vote outside London, the Tories achieved a 4.5% swing over the 2004 results in the same seats (Tories up 7, Labour down 2). Looks good for DC.
But let's put that swing into the Electoral Calculus predictor, which seems quite sophisticated, and see what it does to the 2005 General Election result.
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National Prediction: CON short 36 of majority
2005% seats predicted % predicted seats
CON 33.24% 208 40.24% 290
LAB 36.21% 347 34.20% 282
LIB 22.65% 66 20.64% 48
Yesterday's set of councils has always been better for the Tories than the seats that come up in other years. After winning these councils in 2004 by 37% to Labour's 26%, the press said Labour was on course to lose big at the General Election. A year later the Tories fell back to 32.4% against Labour's 35.2% and TB got his historic third term, a swing back to Labour of 7% over the 2004 council elections.
Projections on the new boundaries say the Conservatives could deprive Labour of an overall majority with a swing of 2%.
But Cameron needs to do much better than he did yesterday to reach Downing Street.
But let's put that swing into the Electoral Calculus predictor, which seems quite sophisticated, and see what it does to the 2005 General Election result.
Tap, tap>
National Prediction: CON short 36 of majority
2005% seats predicted % predicted seats
CON 33.24% 208 40.24% 290
LAB 36.21% 347 34.20% 282
LIB 22.65% 66 20.64% 48
Yesterday's set of councils has always been better for the Tories than the seats that come up in other years. After winning these councils in 2004 by 37% to Labour's 26%, the press said Labour was on course to lose big at the General Election. A year later the Tories fell back to 32.4% against Labour's 35.2% and TB got his historic third term, a swing back to Labour of 7% over the 2004 council elections.
To win a Parliamentary majority, Cameron needs a swing of 7% plus over the 2005 General Election result.
Projections on the new boundaries say the Conservatives could deprive Labour of an overall majority with a swing of 2%.
But Cameron needs to do much better than he did yesterday to reach Downing Street.
Cameron can't win on yesterday's performance | 9 comments (9 topical)
Cameron can't win on yesterday's performance | 9 comments (9 topical)
