Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide?

Tankist Sun May 18, 2008 at 10:06:29 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

According to this Clegg is to back the Tories in a hung parliament - I wonder what the likes of Lynne Featherstone and Sarah Teather think of his plan to slaughter their majorities for the sake of some power?



The secret of the Lib Dems' rise since 1992 has been the fact that they are so amorphous in the public's mind.

They are the perfect protest party, something you can vote for instead of "re-open nominations" and feel no pain.

But Clegg has just brought all that to an immediate end. It is now absolutely clear that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to put the Tories in power.

Now, Clegg may have decided to do this because he thinks the Tories are going to win (and looking at the polls, he obviously has some evidence to back that up). His strategy may be that of the Lib Dems sister party, the Progressive Democrats, in Ireland in 2002 - "single party government? No thanks"

But even so that is an admission that he recognises he is making no political progress because his positioning as "Tory-boy lite" is still electoral poison in Liverpool, London, Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle.

He's (and take note) adopted a core-vote strategy and, like all core-vote strategies, it is about retreat not moving forward.

Obviously this is now a gift to Labour in  those urban settings. But it is also a warning - we need to produce a coherent anti-Tory strategy that turns the Lib Dems into road kill on the route back to victory.



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Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? | 17 comments (17 topical)

Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#1)

by AngryVoter on Sun May 18, 2008 at 11:25:49 PM GMT

Yet according to the polls by YouGov [Like it or lump it, it was the most accurate] and ICM, the Lib Dems often hover at 20% or so during GE's. Which means the Tory lead has effectively just doubled. It basically is a shot into Labour, and a rather clever one at that.

Those who may still feel ill at ease at having the Tories back will instead switch to the Liberal Democrats, a similar "left leaning" party if they still feel disaffected with Labour, this will at least protect some seats the LD's nabbed off of Labour on the back of the Anti-War vote. They could also promise a similar "case by case basis" from the LD's as has happened with the Conservatives in Scotland with the SNP.

If anything it may signify that the momentum most definately hasn't swung back to Labour as some have expected, and quite simply, the end of the New Labour project is nigh, come the next GE the Tories, bar some miracle, are going to get back in on some form of majority. 


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#2)

by Anonymous X on Sun May 18, 2008 at 11:52:30 PM GMT

I'm fuming about this. Labour needs to metaphorically rip out the Liberals' collective throats over this. Bellow it from the rooftops come election times - the LibDems are yellow-streaked Tory lickspittles, a vote for them is a vote for a Tory government.


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#4)

by AngryVoter on Mon May 19, 2008 at 12:05:51 AM GMT

Hasn't the "Don't vote 'coz thems Tories" backfired quite significantly at Crewe and Nantwich? What's likely to say the same won't happen if you turn on the LD's?


[ Parent ]

Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#3)

by NorthernMonkey on Sun May 18, 2008 at 11:56:31 PM GMT

Great news. This is the start of the 'great escape' for us!

Vote LibDem - get Tory.

Vote SNP - get Tory

Vote Plaid - get Tory.

All three have proposed deals if the Tories win in 2010 without a majority.

How many left-leaning LibDems will turn away from their party now? We just have to make sure we hoover them all up.


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#5)

by Anonymous X on Mon May 19, 2008 at 12:10:36 AM GMT

Indeed, hoover them up. Also, don't underestimate how many political young'uns have joined the LibDems. At uni I found, unfortunately, that the self described left-leaning youth overwhelmingly chose LibDems over Labour. Get the message out to them that the LibDems are now just a Tory satellite party.


[ Parent ]

Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#6)

by rwendland on Mon May 19, 2008 at 12:50:35 AM GMT

To hoover up LibDems don't we have to drop 42 days as a red hot potato, and get out of Iraq ASAP? Yes please.


[ Parent ]

Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#7)

by scampi on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:36:56 AM GMT

Yes. Except the 'Tory boy' slogan does not work anymore - how come most of you idiots don't get it?


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#8)

by treborc on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:13:58 AM GMT

You forgot one Vote Labour get stuffed.


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#9)

by Tolpuddle on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:16:19 AM GMT

Here's another possibility. Given the way the opinion polls are running at the moment, Clegg and his team may be taking the view that the Labour brand is so tarnished that many people won't vote Lib Dem because either it will split the vote allowing Labour in, or because, in the past, Lib Dems have indicated that they will side with Labour.

Given the current opinion polls Clegg may just have made a very shrewd move which could push Lib Dems into second place at the next election.
 

This could be very dangerous UNLESS we can change the public's view of us. Still 2 years to go.


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#11)

by Anonymous X on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:15:44 AM GMT

Realistically, Clegg can't get LibDems into second place under FPTP. Possibly second place in terms of vote cast in an extreme worst case scenario (ala 1983), but not second place in terms of seats. At least for now. There's still everything to play for, regardless of this potentially disastrous news. Don't forget there are many centre-left voters who will desert the LibDems if that party sides with the centre-right.


[ Parent ]

Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#10)

by madasafish on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:19:45 AM GMT

If you look unemotionally at the LibDems they have done well by being anti Iraq. And they have been anti Conservative - an alternative to those who would not vote Labour - for the past 15 + years.
Now the mood of the country is changing. Even the LibDems see it.

So as a minor Opposition party, they are acting logically.

Political suicide seems more like political pragmatism... unless you belive Labour just need a few policy and peopl changes and the economy improves in time for 2010.

IF the latter is right, then Labour could win the next GE and the LibDems would lose badly.

Roger Bootle, a respected economist has this forecast..
"When you look at the scale of over-valuation in the housing market (about which I have been banging on for years) and the scale of the coming squeeze on bank lending (about which I have been banging on for the last few months) you have to imagine that house prices have much further to fall.
Unemployment has just started to rise, but bearing in mind the likely collapse of housing turnover, the weakness of house building, the pressure on the retail and financial sectors and the continuing shedding of jobs in manufacturing, surely it has much further to run.

Unemployment is going to rise by about three quarters of a million or more. This will have a serious effect on aggregate consumer spending power, on consumer confidence, on the housing market and on credit quality. In this environment it is going to be a rare thing for a business not to feel any ill-effects from the economy. Only those reliant on more buoyant markets overseas, and benefiting from the lower exchange rate, are likely to be the exceptions."


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/19/ccom119.xml

Based on the baove, if true, Clegg is  a farsighted pragmatist.



Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#12)

by davidfloyd on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:45:23 AM GMT

So, let's get this straight, the story here is 'third party may offer conditional support to largest party in the event that no party has a majority'.

Shocking stuff. What else are we expecting Clegg to do?

Go into an election promising to form a coalition with Labour even if the Tories come out with a much bigger vote and lots more seats?

If he did this, how would he be leading a real party?  


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#13)

by Tolpuddle on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:47:55 AM GMT

Anonymous X - I think I follow you - you mean those who are unhappy might have voted Lib Dem as long as they were sure that it wouldn't mean a vote for the tories - now they won't?

Good point, although what happens if they want to see us out of government for 5 years, are prepared to hold their nose if the tories get in, but wouldn't vote tory themselves - doesn't this give them an option they didn't have before? Maybe I'm just being negative but I can't believe things have got this bad this quickly.


Amazing isn't it - who'd have thought we'd be haviing this sort of discussion a year ago?

btw - anyone know what the plan is to help the 1 million low paid still suffering from the 10p problems? Apparently there's still about 9,000 at Crewe who fit into that category. I don't doubt that Gordon/Alastair will be fixing it, but it might be better to let people know before Thursday - 9,000 votes could make the difference one way or the other.




Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#14)

by Anonymous X on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:27:06 PM GMT

Here's another thought. First, it's undeniable that siding against Labour will keep, or gain, the Liberals some vital extra votes. However, they could potentially also lose a lot of disaffected Labour, centre-left voters. If the LibDems didn't want centre-left votes, why did they 'triangulate' to the left of Labour on certain headline-grabbing issues so often during the Kennedy-Ming eras? Those votes are now up for grabs.


[ Parent ]

Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#15)

by TRUSSMAN5 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:22:13 PM GMT

Why are people surprised?  The Lib dems are nothing but a  bandwagon jumping protest party at the best of times.  However i think Clegg sees which way the wind is blowing and fancies a Cabinet position although he denies it.

The fact that he won't be committing Political suicide tends to suggest how far we've moved to the right in the last few years.


[ Parent ]

Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#16)

by snowflake5 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:26:00 PM GMT

We definitely need to work hard publicising this change of LibDem stance.  I'm sure most of the public don't know about it (even though it was first flagged in the FT in February).

If you read the comment blogs in the Guardian, every third or fourth comment is someone saying they are going to opt for the LibDems because they are annoyed with Labour because we're not "pure" on xyz issue, but they don't want Tories to win! It's like they still think Charlie Kennedy is in charge and the LibDems are still proposing a 50% top rate of tax for high earners.  The actual truth of the matter is the LibDems have moved sharply right under Clegg. We need to be ramming this point home, so that people don't mistakenly vote LibDem believing they are keeping the Tories out.


Re: Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? (#17)

by AngryVoter on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:00:44 AM GMT

It seems that his announcement of a "Case by case basis" support with the Tories, plus the Lib Dems promising to lobby for tax cuts as part of their next manifesto, as well as Nick Clegg going down well in Afghanistan has had an effect though.

 

A further 2% of voters points has now been chipped off of Labour and handed to the Lib Dems, with a further 2% of voters now going from "undecided" to "Tory". According to ICM for The Guardian. 


Has Nick Clegg committed political suicide? | 17 comments (17 topical)