New poll shows Labour behind 20pts

Nationally:

Conservatives: 45
Labour: 25
Lib Dems: 18


Crewe & Nantwich

Conservatives: 45
Labour: 37
Lib Dems: 14

 

There's a summary of the details and other the results of the other questions asked at Labour Outlook

 

Update:

There's another poll out today by ComRes that gives the following (national) figures:

Conservatives: 43

Labour: 26

Lib Dems: 19



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Re: New polls show Labour behind (#1)

If Brown looses this and the 42 day detention, where does it leave him? Hopefully out of No. 10!

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#2)

I think I have to agree, if C&N is lost, then the 42 Days it's entirely likely we'll see a genuine period of drift where the lights are on but nobody is at the helm. I also don't feel Miliband has any real drive to work as a leader of the party, as much as his PR people bang the drum on that regard I just cannot see it in his eyes or in the way he speaks.

 

James Purnell and Alexander Douglas seem to be more firebrand leaders to me, but that's a personal opinion 

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#3)

Well I think this is good news because last week the same pollster was saying we were 26 points behind. We have closed 6 points in a week.

I said after the locals that the worst was yet to come, then was proved right when the 26% deficit followed. I then said the next poll would be better for us and that momentum would then be back with us, and it is.

So this improved picture is very bad news for the Tories and shows us well placed to win again in 2010 thanks to Gordon Brown commanding TV presence, inspired tax cut and good news on schools and hospitals. If I were Cameron I would not be happy tonight, and not just for the obvious reason but also because of this cheering poll.

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#4)

David Cameron is probably making a mess in his old Etonian underpants at the news that he and his party are only 20 points ahead in the polls.

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#6)

Hmm a little optimistic maybe. 26% or 20% behind in the polls is much of a muchness anyway. Both are shocking and show that Labour has to change.

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#18)

Now today per ComRes in the Independent it is only 17%.

Cameron has peaked too soon and we are on our way back.

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#36)

Lol!  British Asian, you really are priceless...to what do you ascribe this stunning turnaround?

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#5)

Leadership talk is pointless, IMO, because I honestly think the leadership and personality factor is of relatively minor importance compared to other influences on voter opinion (i.e. real political issues, general disillusionment with Labour, the inevitable desire for change after more than 10 years of one party in power).

Anyway, would any ambitious MP really want to try to take over the party when the chances are that he/she would be leading the party to defeat at the next general election anyway?

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#7)

Certainly a change in leadership is worthless unless there is some kind of shift in style and direction.

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#9)

Who, realistically could that be?

Re: New polls show Labour behind (#31)

I don't think there is anyone. Now the party reaps the rewards of New Labour. By dismantling the broad church and surrounding themselves with yes-men, Blair & Brown have removed any potential candidates. All of their yes-men are in harmony with New Labour, so putting one of them in charge weakens things further because it might give them legitimacy - at which point I give up on the Labour Party.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#8)

The question is not "will Brown go" but how/when and what shape he will leave Labour in when he goes. In the last month the Weighted Moving Average poll lead of the Tories has gone from 10 points to 17 points.  The Party is still bankrupt and without a General Secretary, and has run a disasterously inept campagn in Crewe which is driving people away in droves. Gordon's response is to insist that everyone - apart from him - comes up to Crewe to associate themselves with the repellent and failing campaign. Something must be done - but what?

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#10)

Seems that, to me, 20 points is rather a large gap still, I'd disagree saying "The momentum is back with Labour" if anything dropping 6 points over supposedly "solving" the 10p tax issue is rather poor showing, it seems to have only placated those Die-hard Labour voters that were so furious with Gordon over the dropping of the tax band. All I can see now is a double Scorced Earth policy, from Labour, there's now £45 billion in borrowing off of the Government, plus this other £2.7 billion loan to give people a rebate, the level of borrowing is nearly at that unsutainable level and there doesn't seem to be any kind of political will to level out that problem, or even reduce it. Meanwhile Brown and Labour's own leadership is still stuck on the rocks and it's damaging the party.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#11)

So the Tories show their true colours, the 10p tax and was for Labour voters only and the Tories don't care abour it.

As for the maths, do us a favour, the governments finances are in reasonable shape and this "Labour have run out of money" line you lot are trying to spin is pure BS. 

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#13)

I didn't say Labour have run out of money at all, the government is running short of cash.

Though I think the party funds are indeed in a bit of a sticky wickett if my Grandfather, a lifelong Labour Party Activist, is anything to go by. Who tells me that the Local Labour party is scratching at whatever straws it has left due to a lack of money in the kitty. 

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#12)

"As for the maths, do us a favour, the governments finances are in reasonable shape and this "Labour have run out of money" line you lot are trying to spin is pure BS. "

Facts:
The Budget deficit this year will be £40billion at CURRENT estimates: nearly twice last year's estimate.
If this year's tax allowances to offset the 10p tax debacle were carried into next year -remember they are for ONE year only - the Government breaks it own spending rules.

Anyone think the Government budgetted for a 30% reduction in house sales? Nope. That's £2 billion off stamp duty receipts.
Darling assume dthe Economy would grow at 2.1% this year. The best it is actually goig to do is 1 to 1.6%.
The impact on receipts - down and expenditure - up due to unemployment is going to be £10billion plus.


The implications are obvious.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#14)

Really? Obvious?

Anyone can rattle off a stream of numbers with a little indignation at appropriate points. It's what those numbers mean that's important.

 I submit the following meaning:

The government has overspent a little in this years budget, however this is nothing amazingly exceptional and the economy is basically still on a firm footing.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#15)

Andreas:

  1. The UK Public Finances are in poor shape. In addition to the "on-balance-sheet" borrowing of 40% of GDP there are the PFI liabilities and the un-funded Pensions liabilities.
  2. The Labour Party really has run out of money - net debts of over £25M, income nose-diving and the party is in negotiations with 9 millionaires to extend the term of their loans (which are repayable this year and next).  Tyey may well want to impose conditions.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#30)

1. How interesting, because I've heard plenty of tories who say that our economic legacy was due to all your hard work since black wednesday. But in 1997 the figure for public sector debt was 43odd percent. Rather than repeat one of Gideon's rather lame criticisms, how about offering a litle analysis as to why this rather dull figure means the end of the world.

2. That's none of your bloody business. 

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#35)

I wonder why the 40% of GDP sustainable investment rule is such a big deal, none of the rest of the G7 do:

 
But Gordon Brown has made so much of it, if we breach it he'll take a lot of flak. I can see it's value as a loose working target, but it is not fundamental, and in the face of a global financial crisis we should not feel we cannot breach it.

(Chart source "Budget 2007".) 

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#16)

Un fortunately the government have overspent for the last several years taken no notice of PFI borrowing which the country will be paying back for years, the 2.7 billion "bung" is exactly what Gordo accuses the conservatives of all the time as an unfunded promise leading to a black hole in public finances, how come 300 million for the police was inflationary but 2.7 billion isn't

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#17)

If we lose in Crewe, we have only ourselves to blame. The campaign would not make me want to vote Labour, and frankly their tactics have tarnished all the good that Gwyneth Dunwoody did.

Think about it. Wouldn't Cameron be lagging behind in polls if 'Toff' charges worked? If we are going to talk about the super-rich, and how they run the Tory party, we must put our words into practice.

 1) Break Murdoch's newspaper monopoly. This is not a 'loony-left' suggestion. Murdoch seems to be leaning to the Tories anyway. Besides, Capitalism is brilliant at generating wealth, but it is in it's pure form, where social injustice and unemployment arise. Is the Sun causing this? No. But it is not privatisation, or capitalism that works. It is competition.

 2) On the matter of competition, review water privatisation.

 3) End the tax exemption status for private schools (and churches for that matter).

 4) Abolish the Lords, and reform the system for the Commons.

 5) Introduce state funding of political parties.

 6) Go after the rich in taxation.

 7) An amnesty for illiegal immigrants, an Agency Worker's Bill, cracking down on low pay of homeworkers and waiters who get paid by restaurants in tips.

 8) A coherent Corporate Manslaughter Bill

 9) A Democracy in the Workplace Act

10) Comprehensivisation of education through Dutch funding model, and bussing.  

Also, confront what the Tories are saying, not who they are. Expose their right-wing demagoguery. They have promised to stop heroin prescriptions to addicts, which will see an unbelievable rise in burglary rates. 

They have proposed to abolish the EMA, which saves many mothers and fathers more money than the average tax cut, yet have not supported universal education either.

They have proposed to abolish the existing rights which half of Labour MP's voted to have extended to that of equal rights with fellow workers, of part-time employees. That applies to around 10 million workers, many of them Middle-England mothers.

They have proposed, after slamming single mothers into the dirt with the abolishment of working rights, and the EMA, to redistribute the tax burden from the rich, onto them, then offering the marriage incxentives as a peverse way to give them back this money.

Their Wisconsin Welfare proposals are a shambles. Those proposals only work during economic prosperity, even then ruining the lives of many single mothers, as they have no time to look after their children.

They have proposed mass deregulation. Oh, the beaurocracy will be kept, but there will not be coherent checks on businesses.

They have proposed raising the Inheritance Tax so that there will be another generation of inheritees like them, not having to work until they recieve millions of pounds from their parents. The IHT is a great way of redistributing wealth, but it should be reformed to tax the beneficiaries.

They have no plans to enforce environmental policies. It is of the Bush style persuasion of businesses. I see no plans of the Schwarzenegger sort, to require all car manufacturers to ensure all their cars go 43 miles to the gallon.

If Labour can expose the Tories very thin veil of Liberalism, who can then say there is 'no difference' between the parties? Go and tell the mother who sees her wage slashed from over £12 to under £6 that there is no difference. Go and tell all the old ladies mugged because someone needs a fix that there is no difference. Go and tell the 400,000 children growing up that they will never be as successful as a richer kid because SureStart has been abolished that there is no difference. Go and tell an African farmer that, although he is in a terrible position now, that Labour is fighting for his place in the market, and the Tories won't, that there is no difference. Go and tell the newly unemployed young workers, of which under Labour there are under 5,000, that there is no difference. Go and tell those who benefit significantly from the New Deal that there is no difference. Go and tell the former homeless people, after Labour slashed homeless rates by two-thirds, that there is no difference. There are many other examples, of people, domestically, and abroad, who are substantially better off under this government, that admittedly, needs to be more progressive.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#19)

"1) Break Murdoch's newspaper monopoly."

 I beleive it was the Left-leaning Guardian who recently stated that most people buy whatever newspaper best fits their world view, The Sun had previously been Tory-Loyal for ages, but switched to Blair because he was a sort of "Labour-lite" candidate, making the noises both sides wanted to hear. So I disagree with breaking Murdoch's Monopoly, that is attacking those who are successfull, which as far as I can tell, people have tired of seeing, loony left suggestion or not, it is one that it easily attributed to the left-wing cause.

 "2) On the matter of competition, review water privatisation. "

Don't know why, can't really comment. My water bill is cheap and that's that. 

3) End the tax exemption status for private schools (and churches for that matter).

Why? They offer a public service, and taxing the Church is just a terrible idea, the CoE and various other religious sections are actually short of money, they maintain their properties and give solace to people who are still of a religious persuasion, this would just annoy the religious vote immensly, not to mention the thousands of people [many of whom in New Labour, no less] would go ape at the private schools, like it or not, Private education is better because the schools spend the money straight onto the staff instead of new equality initiatives, or gigantic comupter labs that are barely used [I say this having been in both Private and Public systems]

4) Abolish the Lords, and reform the system for the Commons.

Abolishing the Lords would turn the majority of the Public against you, Tony Blair I beleive once said that "people weren't bothered about the Monarchy and the gentry any more" before around 60% of the British Public turned out onto the streets and at various events to celebrate HRH's Golden Jubilee. Plus people know the value of the Lords during their Titanic sitting in regards to the Anti-Terror bill which was the talk of my school and around my hometown at the time, and it wasn't about how the Lords were a bunch of doddering establishment people and should be abolished, it was about their role as the gatekeepers of policy and protectors of the country's rights.

5) Introduce state funding of political parties.

This is far too slippy a slope, and in countries where it has been introduced it sees a lot more fiddling of books, I think you have to try to hit a more americanized approach where you try to get thousands of smaller donations rather than rely on several larger ones.

The other problem is of course that you think that people in the country naturally fall to the left-wing of things. If anything the New Labour decade should tell you they are anything but, when the two largest newspapers are The Sun and The Daily Mail, both of which fall into the "right wing" category. You see the UK as a whole, is more right wing than you realise.

Another problem is many of the statistics that you quote aren't strictly accurate, I beleive Midlands Today did this when official figures said there were only 12 or so people homeless in Birmingham, they came across 12 within half an hour, and in a couple of hours nearly 30 people who were homeless. Bean Counters quoting numbers do not equate to people's perceptions, or their experiences. Another thing has been the near vanishment of our Police Force, this is especially accute in places such as Semi-Rural locations where I live, and bizarrely, the "Toff Tories" seem to be going down well with the traditionally labour voters because they're getting things done, and getting them done cheaper than the previous Labour Administration by employing typists to fill in the police forms and freeing up their time by employing Civil Enforcement Officers.

Not trolling or anything, but Labour has to modernize and sharpen up significantly to take on the revitalized Tory Juggernaught, it has to streamline quickly and look into where it can genuinely cut down costs while it is in government, because a lot of people are realising that despite the high levels of public money in the tin, its being mismanaged and not spent properly on the frontline where it's always been needed. 

This is where the Tories have found the achilles heel and are mercilessly exploiting it, they're not proposing the cutting down of front line services as Labour keeps decrying. Muggings won't suddenly leap up because the Tories are in power and they stop giving junkies fixes, they're going to cut back on Police paperwork to put officers onto the streets.

It's talking about cutting back on the literal army of health and safety inspectors, equality staff and all sorts of other nonsensical jobs that I still struggle to see what they do, and wonder why it's a full time job when a lot of it seems to be based around common sense ideas and stuff many folks in my town do anyway out of force of habit, rather than because somebody in the H&S ministry told us to do so.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#23)

Plus people know the value of the Lords during their Titanic sitting in regards to the Anti-Terror bill which was the talk of my school and around my hometown at the time, and it wasn't about how the Lords were a bunch of doddering establishment people and should be abolished, it was about their role as the gatekeepers of policy and protectors of the country's rights.

Can you explain to me two things:

1) Why do you think these 'gatekeepers' need to hold their position based on the families they were born into, or the Church they belong to or being picked by the party leaders through a system of 'cronyism'?

2) Why can't these 'gatekeepers and protectors' be democratically elected by the British people?

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#25)

1) Partially Tradition. British People like tradition, they don't like massive change. The Lords are about evenly matched last time I checked [between Tories at 153 and Labour at 213] and aren't really necessarily accountable to their main parties, they act as a vital democratic check and balance to ensure that no one party can truly dig itself in and establish itself with a permenant "right to government" it is, after all in law, "Her Majesty's Government", not that of the British People. The Public vote for it and Her Majesty tends to pick the winner of said democratic vote

 2) I beleive a number of them are to be so now with the passing of various acts under Tony Blair. However, I think we shouldn't have a fully democratic system as that isn't British Parlimentary Democracy, our "envy of the world" is possibly being watered down under the pretense of "democracy" though I haven't seen these proposals or law since Labour's standing with the public slumped several months ago.
With the Lords fairly limited power as it is I don't see the point either. You can hardly talk of cronyism when both sides have used the system to appoint who they needed any way. Also, I've never really heard anybody complain about the Lords in my "traditionally" Labour area, and all seem to shrug and accept that they're there to keep an eye on the government and the Commons as and when necessary. Making them democratically accountable just forces another form for people to tick when turnout is still so low, which could force one party or another into unassailable majorities, which would either spend their time opposing the government, whatever it would do, or working with it for the same reasons.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#29)

1) The House of Lords is not a 'democratic check' because the House itself is not democratic. It actually blocks the elected will of the people (as seen in many gay rights cases over the years).

The Lords is also very conservative (small 'c') in it's nature - typically because the make-up of it is far richer and Home Counties based than the general population. No wonder the Tories are dying to keep it!

British people certainly do want change here - I believe polls going back decades have supported democratising the Lords. Sadly we don't have any politicians brave enough to see it through.

2) British Parliamentary Democracy certainly isn't the envy of the world anymore! Commonwealth realms like Canada and Australia have chipped away at the Westminster system so much, it's barely recognisable.

And what is 'British Parliamentary Democracy' anyway? Our parliament has changed many times over the centuries - why not again now?

Lords reform is not a 'bread and butter' issue obviously, but more British people would rather reform it than not, and many left leaning / moderate folks want to change it.

Maybe if people felt their votes actually counted and wouldn't be overruled by unelected Peers then voter turnout might increase.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#32)

Having an elected house of laws would not entrench a system of party dominance, that's laughable. If anything it would finally break once and for all the system of Tory dominance that has only recently been changed. If the Tories + Labour get ~70% of the vote between the, the rest going to Liberals, Greens, regionalists, BNP (yuck), UKIP (yuck), socialist etc. then how can you say there will be party dominance? PR doesn't produce party dominance, in fact its detractors lament the fact that it rarely produces a majority party!

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#33)

House of Laws....LORDS!

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#20)

African farmers and under-fives do not have votes unfortunately.

All this is anyway flim flam. The Conservative lead has collapsed from 27% to 17% in a week, in two more weeks we will be level pegging.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#21)

I admire your optimism!

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#26)

unfortunately you are taking the polling reports of two different polling companies - YouGov and ComRes, YouGov typically polling a high Conservative vote and ComRes polling a low Conservative votes.

The poll in The Sun that you refer to (27% lead) was seen largely as a rogue poll, and the 17% lead in the ComRes poll is the highest that company has ever recorded - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1209#comments

It is, as someone pointed out, the weighted moving average which is important which shows a gradually rising base of conservative support

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#27)

1) Break Murdoch's newspaper monopoly. This is not a 'loony-left' suggestion. Murdoch seems to be leaning to the Tories anyway. Besides, Capitalism is brilliant at generating wealth, but it is in it's pure form, where social injustice and unemployment arise. Is the Sun causing this? No. But it is not privatisation, or capitalism that works. It is competition.

 4) Abolish the Lords, and reform the system for the Commons.

The point of the Lords, as said above, is to provide a check on the power of the Commons, if the Lords was reformed, it should be given slightly more power. Typically, but not exclusively, the Lords will ratify issues in the parties' electoral manifestoes, and the controversies arise where a party is attempting to pass something which isn't.

 6) Go after the rich in taxation.

It would be difficult to increase taxes much more on the rich, and it depends upon what you define as "rich". The middle class - 30k to 100k earnings - are already paying a significant amount of tax, it is only the "super rich" who are able to avoid tax. The issue with increasing tax on this group is that they will simply leave the country. In any case an increasing number of the middle class are considering leaving the country because of the tax bills.

 7) An amnesty for illiegal immigrants, an Agency Worker's Bill, cracking down on low pay of homeworkers and waiters who get paid by restaurants in tips.

As a waiter who does get paid by their restaurant tips, any minor increase of my minimum wage would be offset by a likely decline in tips, which with the extra national insurance contributions that would be paid on my increase in declared wage makes it less worthwhile.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#22)

At the end of the day, it will all depend upon the economy.

IF it improves and growth increases by 2010 so the budget deficit reduces, inflation reduces, people feel better off and unemployment does not rise, Labour have a decent chance of recovering in the polls.

On the other hand , at present growth is falling, inflation is rising, people feel poorer  and unemployment is rising.

So the Government have a lot to do.. When they find a coherent strategy please let Mr Darling know.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#24)

LOL Is Britasian 4 real or does s/he just not understand politics?

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#28)

I don't think he understands Polls. A single poll tells you almost nothing, the real margin for error is about +6% (they say 3% but this is too optimistic, based on the data) and you need to look at a moving average to see any trends.  I compute a Weighted Moving Average based on the data at ukpollingreport.co.uk which has all the polls. This shows the Tory Lead has risen over the last month from 10% to 17%, and 2 months ago it was 6%.

6 months ago it was 10% so it isn't one-way traffic, but the 10p saga and the Crewe campaign have been self-inflicted utter disasters. When even the Guardian says Labour is the "nasty party" there are seismic changes afoot.  Any serious organisation that valued the Party above personalities would sack the people responsible.

Re: New poll shows Labour behind 20pts (#34)

The person directly responsible for the C&N campaign is McCabe who reports to Mr Brown.

(The Labour Party is dominated by Scots MPs.. who bring their own peculiar view of the world to their politics.
As an exiled Scot they appear to me rooted in the 20th century. )

But McCabe's partner Fiona Gordon is Brown's political secretary (I think)... so he's probably safe...