Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results

A Labourhome.org survey of 330 party activists has illustrated the extent of the challenge Gordon Brown faces in order to rebuild confidence in his leadership.

This is the first Labour Grassroots Survey and we will be tracking perception of Labour's Cabinet Ministers. The key figure each month will be the change from previous months, however, these figures show a severe denting of confidence in some of Labour's leading figures.

Respondents were asked how they would rate the Cabinet on a scale of 1-10 and the scores are in the table above.

The poll closed before the announcement yesterday of the increase in the Basic Rate Tax threshold, so includes none of the effect of that decision, however, it is notable that while Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown himself languish beneath all other Cabinet colleagues, David Miliband, Alan Johnson, Hilary Benn and Jack Straw, all feasible future leaders of the Labour Party, monopolise the top of the Cabinet rankings. Even fifth placed John Denham is widely respected and could be seen as a future leadership contender. Ed Balls, also seen to be positioning himself for the succession, is rated in the lower half of the table, just above Defense Secretary Des Brown, who it is rumoured faces a deshuffling in favour of John Hutton.

Our second question was "How do we rebuild support?"
11.20%  Winning back the middle classes
33.00%  Shoring up the core vote
19.40%  Successfully managing the economy
6.10%   Attacking the Conservatives        
30.00%  Something else

Under "something else" we received a range of responses, including...

"Speaking clearly, stopping headline grabbing ill thought through policies and better vetting of civil servants"
"BRING BACK THE 10P TAX RATE & GET TROOPS OUT OF IRAQ"\
"getting a new leader"
"Both shoring up the core vote and regaining the middle classes would be nice. Must we accept a contradiction here?"
"We need to rebuild the 1997 coalition by reconnecting with progressive voters of all classes."
"less of the " we must do the right thing for the country" and more populist policies. Give people the choice to cut taxes or services. You cannot have both and people need to accept this."
"enforce the 2004 Hunting Act and expose David Cameron who would bring back hunting with dogs"
"Animal welfare"
"reinforcing support for the underpivileged, unemployed, working poor"
"increase taxation on people earning over £30,000 to improve public services"
"giving the people the promised EU constitutional referendum"
"New chancellor for the exchequer. Stronger government."
"Listening government. Developing genuine involvement of the electorate in decision making."
"Coming up with a coherent and popular policy platform"
"Staying the new labour triangulation course, introducing new policies to create a narrative of change"
"Get back to what we believe in and people will return. Do not approach it the other way around, trying to figure out what people want to hear 'to win back the middle classes.' Set the agenda, make the argument, CONVINCE PEOPLE, rather than flip-flop."
"Organisation and unity behind the leader of the party"
"Need to steer the economy to safety and establish how our 'vision' and policies are different to the Tories"
"Doing the right thing. Exclusively. Forget triangulation. Sell solidarity and opportunity and fairness."
"Being sociaist i.e .redistribution of wealth"
"Stop attacking our core vote and stop trying to outflank the Tories on the right. Retain the centre left ground."
"Getting rid of the clique at the top- bring back some convincing figures like Reid and promote good Ministers like Coaker"
"Progressive epochal reform - Proportional Representation."
"Improve Party Discipline"
"Show the average person that we care about their welfare and how we will help them avoid the pinch."
"winning back the many, many people who are deserting us in despair over decisions such as nuclear power, Heathrow, 42 days and Trident"
"Publicising it's achievements and the work ahead whilst constantly attacking the Tories"
"change polices introduce more progressive taxation and halt privatisation including academy schools and foundation hospital."
"A new vision - a new crusade for Labour in the 21st century. Big thinking."
"Exchanging 'what's in it for me?' for 'how can we live together?'"
"Introduce serious measures to re-regulate financial institutions, and sell it by emphasising that, this way, Britain can avoid serious crises. Point out the Conservatives want to give more freedom to banks - ensuring a crisis like this will happen in the future, only worse."
"Addressing the concerns of poor white semi-skilled worker"
"Listen to grassroots members/councillors & actually take notice"
"Asserting a basic belief in prioritising the needs of the poorest, weakest and most vulnerable"

The next question we asked was how motivated people are, on a scale of 1-10, to campaign for Labour. Again, this is a tracking question, so it will be most interesting to see how it changes over time, but the average rating was 4.99 out of 10.

Our fourth question was, "What message would you send to the Labour hierarchy, given the party's performance on May 1st?". We'll collate these responses and post a briefing later today.

Overall, the polls say we are at our lowest ebb for 26 years. Next month's survey will be provide a valuable comparison which will take into account the impact of the tax threshold changes and the Crewe by-election result.


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Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#1)

Very good Alex - this is a welcome addition to the site.

Those cabinet rankings are pretty much in line with my thinking on this.

Time to kick out Darling (bottom ranked) as Chancellor and replace him with Miliband (top ranked).

Good to see Balls languishing near the bottom too.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#2)

Oh gosh! just read the last line of your comment and had a Beavis moment. will grow up and stop chuckling now.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#14)

Ha! Hadn't noticed that myself, you must have a smutty mind!

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#21)

Basically the more decisions a cabinet minister has had to take the lower they are in the poll. Sending Milliband to Number 11 could kill him off as a rival therefore. So he probably would not take the job
 
There are a few lower than they should be on the decisions made vs popularity which is good old personal hatred kicking in e.g. Hoon and Kelly and Balls. 
 
Very surprising to see enthusiasm for campaigning under half. These are Labour activists you say?
 

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#3)

Sorry to be a spoilsport... but to be honest, although the comments on policy are interesting I am not sure what the purpose is of ranking members of the government in this way. It is almost entirely without any conceivable practical implication, it has no obvious political content, and (especially on a public site) it just provides the media with further juicy stories to chatter on about personalities and presentation and ignore politics - which is why I did not contribute to the survey.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#5)

As a standalone poll, I would agree with you, but this is the first of a tracking poll, and it is - overwhelmingly - an illustration of the opinion of Labour activists, though I don't doubt a few Tory trolls have snuck in.

As a tracker, we will be able to start charting how policy and the news impact on Ministers' standing in the Party. And maybe that might be interesting.

But - feel free to email me if you have any questions to propose for our June poll.

alexhilton@gmail.com
07985 384 859

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#4)

Mostly shows New Labour is still runing the government

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#6)

I share Free Radical's concern. It might be a tracker poll but how valid is any comment on, for example, Baroness Ashton, of whom we know very little. As I dont have an alternative suggestion I nearly didnt post this comment but wanted the opportunity to say that I too was amused by the Balls/bottom commentary...!

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#13)

Don't worry - I made sure we had a "Don't know or N/A" option there, which automatically assigned a value of "0" so that it did not affect our results.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#7)

Very interesting.  Over time I would expect Ed Miliband to overtake his brother David. Ed has a warmer persona and comes across as a really decent type on television (I think it's something to do with the expression in the eyes - there's an innocence there). But he needs a more high-profile job.


I also agree with the person who remarked that New labour were still firmly in the driving seat. This is a good thing. Elections are won from the centre.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#8)

P.S. Regarding John Denham, back in Sept 2006, I did a piece on him for this site, trying to drum up support for him as leader, which you can read here:

http://www.labourhome.org/story/2006/9/8/13385/08443

Unfortunately people responded with surprise, and felt he didn't have the name recognition factor. More seriously, Denham himself wasn't interested in the job (telling people he had no intention of putting his name forward). There is nothing to suggest this has changed. I think his chance of leading Labour has gone.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#9)

He wasn't in the Cabinet when you wrote your last piece.  And his recent speech to the Fabians on the need for a 'southern strategy' to win the next election was just fantastic.  We could do a lot worse than him as leader, with Hazel Blears as deputy for a good north-south balance (and I say this as someone who, almost uniquely amongst New Labour aparatchiks, didn't actually back Blears in the deputy leadership contest).

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#11)

I'm not convinced he wants the job though! In order to be leader, you have to want the job, and allow your name to be put forward. That was the problem in 2006. If he was willing to give it a go then, I'm sure a whole bunch of favourable articles would have appeared in the Guardian etc, especially as his Iraq resignation carried more weight two years ago than it does now.

Regarding his recent speech, I agree it was a good one - but they published it in the Guardian and the comments were unfavourable (in direct contrast to two years ago, when anything Denham wrote in the Guardian got a stream of favourable comments). I think his chance has gone, sadly. 

Re Hazel blears - she irritates people too much. She has more negatives than positives. 

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#15)

Funny, I took that speech as a blatant kyte-flying exercise for a leadership bid.  We'll see...

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#16)

It might have been kite-flying, but as always timing is everything.  You have to take things at the flood.

Denham's best moment would have been to declare in late 2006 that he was putting his hat in the ring for 2007, because Iraq was still a salient issue at the time, and people gave him credit for resigning from the government.  Things have moved on now - the reaction of the Guardianistas is the best gauge of this.

I think the next leader has to be from the next generation (the late 30-somethings and early 40-somethings). The trouble is that Blair didn't really bother to promote them and give them a chance to shine (in sharp contrast to the way Kinnock gave both Blair and Brown their chance while they were both in their early thirties). So we have to see how they perform in high office under Gordon. Most have been disappointingly low-key, keeping their heads below the parapet.

(An aside on timing - Gordon brown's best moment would probably have been 2004/5. Perhaps we collectively made a mistake in allowing the government to drift from 2005 to 2007 while Tony Blair toured the country trying to fill in time till his ten-year anniversary). 

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#31)

I <heart> Ed Milliband.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#10)

I’m a bit disappointed that Jacqui Smith didn’t get a lower rating!

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#12)

The only surprises for me was that Yvette Cooper was so low and that Jacqui Smith was so high. I'd also have liked to see Caroline Flint included in the table, even though she only attends cabinet. I suspect/hope she would be in the top half of the table.

I've commented more about this on my own blog:

http://www.stuartbruce.biz/2008/05/alistair-darlin.html

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#17)

 I think it's worrying that even the 'popular' ministers barely scraped past 5 out of 10...

I have to confess when I completed the survey only Hilary Benn and Ed Miliband got any marks to speak of!  To a certain extent it would be interesting to see what people made of some figures outside the Cabinet except I can think of no sensible rationale for choosing which ones.  But you'd have to say none of the Cabinet sound like the people's choice right now, especially when bearing in mind that potential leadership contenders are those who would most likely have benefited from Tory trolls and therefore might have had an artificial boost.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#18)

Go on to Guido's site (if you dare!) and read the comments. You'll see that the Tory trolls were giving top marks to Brown and Balls because they know they embarrass the party.

I suspect they'll have given the real leadership contenders lower marks to make it look like we want Balls to take over from Brown. Didn't work though.

God knows how bad their scores would have been without them!

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#19)

a degree of troll filtering went on in a diligent way

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#22)

Yes that what was struck me too - on a ratings standard out of 10 so few getting over half marks and the top score being so pitifully low!

It will be fascinating to see how this changes, but the only obvious conclusion to draw from it as it stands is a widespread disatisfaction with EVERYONE in the Cabinet!

Absolutely incredible.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#20)

Before I draw any conclusions from this, I'd be interested to know the methodology that was used Alex. How was the sample drawn? Was it an email survey? What was the response rate?

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#23)

"Link Cosmos" which helpfully provides links to stories that link to this one gives a useful indication of how helpful this idea is to our political opponents...

E.g.

Labour Home has (perhaps unwisely) conducted a poll of the Labour grassroots, asking them to rank Cabinet Ministers.  Who comes at the bottom but Darling (3.35) and Brown (3.37 ).  The hapless Chancellor keeps the Prime Minister (by 0.02 percentage points) from the ultimate humiliation. 
http://thewiltedrose.wordpress.com/

Its seems that everyone is launching tracker polls lately, first there was ConservativeHome then there was PoliticsHome, now LabourHome has unveiled its very own and it reveals yet more unpleasant news for the Prime Minister.
http://politicalwire.co.uk/labour-activists-want-anyone-but-gordon

Naturally, in the world of blogging it becomes harder to distinguish the "media" from everybody else. But as a strategy by party activists we need to think about which "hat" we want to wear, "journalist" or "activist" and whether we risk helping our political opponents destroy our government and party by failing to distinguish these roles.

Perhaps anybody who saw Nick Robinson's disgraceful personalised hatchet job on Gordon Brown on last night's BBC1 10 O'Clock News might grasp the significance of what is happening.

There are powerful forces out to destroy not only Brown, but the Labour Government and the Labour Party because they now see the Tories as a better prospect for preserving their economic and political interests. In other words, ultimately those with power are motivated by politics and not personality or whether the Prime Minister might bite his nails or look tired. A comparison of news coverage in the Financial Times and the Sun shows this clearly I think.

The organisers of this poll no doubt have good intentions but it represents to me a depoliticisation of the debate, which ought to revolve around policy.

It is a suicidal political strategy.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#24)

But it is Brown's incompetence that has been the prime factor driving down our poll ratings. As has been said higher up this thread, the Tories are praying for him to survive because they know they'll wipe the floor with him at the general election. As a Labour supporter (more than 30 years' membership) I'm praying for him to go, or be pushed, for the same reason. Almost any other leader you care to name would give us a better chance at the general election than Gordon. This survey is not pleasant reading but it reflects political realities that Labour has to face up to.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#26)

Come now, you are being too harsh. Gordon Brown has made a few mistakes (who wouldn't after 11 years in one of the big offices of state?), but his mistakes are smaller and less catastrophic than Blair's on say Iraq, and more important, he's prepared to correct the mistakes quickly.
Gordon brown is also responsible for 11 years of continuous growth - something that has never occured under a single government in the UK before and never under a Labour one. How people take these things for granted as though any old person could have achieved it! "Anyone" can't do it, as a quick look at France, germany, Japan and the USA will show.

What we are seeing now is a media frenzy because they want a Tory government, and because they hate Scots/northern people - all Scottish and northern people who reach the top of the Labour party get it in the neck from the media - remember how Ian McCartney was harassed? And recall how Prescott was hounded for having an affair, while Boris Johnson was given a free pass even though Boris had small children and made his mistress have an abortion!  Labour needs to expect this kind of thing from the media and close ranks, not join in the bashing. 

Finally the situation regarding the leadership is the same as it was in 2007 - there simply isn't anyone to take over. This is Blair's fault for not promoting the next generation. Gordon has given the young ones a chance, but they will need more than a year in cabinet to earn their spurs. We're probably looking two-three years ahead before they are ready. For now, Gordon is all we've got and we need to protect him best we can.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#29)

The problem faced by Brown is that if so-called middle England starts to support the Tories (because they have forgotten or are too young to remember how awful it was under the Tories), then "triangulating" to the right does not gain much ground but loses your core voters.

But to return to the main question - we can blog and chatter about what we like about government politicians and it makes not a blind bit of difference to anything at all, except that it provides sustenance and succour to our opponents and to a media frenzy.

It is a sad delusion to think that it will have any effect on the machinations of the Parliamentary Labour Party, which at the end of the day is really in truth the only body to hold in its hands the fate of a Labour Prime Minister.

To rank politicians in this way, with the greatest respect to the organisers of the poll and those who participated, of little more use than putting them in a beauty contest.

In my view the value of a site such as this is for an exchange of views and to allow those interested in the party to see those views. But it can easily become a place for tittle-tattle and court gossip. And, furthermore we are not sitting with friends chatting over a coffee or a pint of beer, but potentially broadcasting to the world...

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#36)

The problem faced by Brown is that if so-called middle England starts to support the Tories (because they have forgotten or are too young to remember how awful it was under the Tories), then "triangulating" to the right does not gain much ground but loses your core voters.  I just had to quote that. Because you are 100% right. That's were our party's electoral difficulties lie.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#40)

No it's not suicidal, but it is challenging.

It's a tracker poll taken at Labour's lowest ebb for decades. It would not be surprising to see Gordon next month jump a number of places, depending on the outcome of Crewe, HFE Bill and other issues and events.

Sorry I can't go intop the methodology in too much detail. Doing so would enable Tory Trolls to overwhelm the data.

However, we are committed to retaining the same methodology on the tracker questions, and informing readers if that methodology changes.

Incidentally, if anyone has any non-tracker questions they want in the poll due for the first week of June, please let me know.

Thanks

Alex Hilton
alexhilton@gmail.com
07985 384 859

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#25)

I think we need to reconsider our cabinet. Here's my suggestion:

Chancellor: Jack Straw
Foreign: Hillary Benn
Home: John Denham
Justice: Baroness Kennedy
Schools: Harriet Harman
Universities: Jon Trickett
Health: Frank Dobson
Defence: Alan Johnson
Inequalities: Gareth Thomas
Chairman: Jon Cruddas (but in an elected position)
International development: John Bercow (I'm going to get slaughtered)
Lords: Chris Smith
Environment: Joan Ruddock
Transport: Jacqui Smith
N. Ireland: David Milliband
Work and Pensions: Ed Balls
Industry: Yvette Cooper
Chief secretary: Dave Anderson
Culture: Glenda Jackson
Commons: Graham Allen

Two new ministries:

Housing, Communities and Urban development: Ann Cryer

Regions (Combining Wales and Scotland) and Local government: Douglas Alexander

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#30)

I think we've seen the great achievments of putting Tories in a Labour government. Digby Jones needs to go. Even Woodward for that matter.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#32)

"International development: John Bercow (I'm going to get slaughtered)"

My eyes!  My eyes are burning!  Or is it the big tent that's on fire.  Don't light the blue touch paper in the tent!

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#33)

Why not go the whole way and invite him to be leader of the Labour Party? He'd probably be better than Brown to be quite honest...

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#34)

Miliband as N.Ireland sec??? WHY?!

For those interested, the guardian has commented that labourhome has ranked Gordon Brown only slightly better than the worst minister, Alistair Darling.

So, although the influence may be tiny, and possibly even nothing at all, it's merited a story on the guardian in the context of gordon brown trying to fight back against constant negativity in the press.

I don't mind the idea that, as announcements are made, we can track ministers popularity. But in the current climate, I can't help but feel it's handing more ammo to the opposition and the media.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#35)

Miliband to Northern Ireland would be a waste.

And Frank Dobson returning?

That's not really a Cabinet I'd be proud of!

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#37)

What's wrong with Dobson?

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#38)

I'm not a fan. He's a bit of a blithering fool at times.

Re: Labour Grassroots Survey: May Results (#39)

perhaps Milliband at defence then, and Johnson at N. Ireland.