If Labour hold Crewe, the economy holds up and Gordon 'softens up'...

Mike Ion Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:43:27 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Some of my fellow Labour bloggers, party activists and members have short memories. Less than 12 months ago the Tories were disintegrating over academic selection and Labour was 14% ahead in the polls. The next election is not due for another 24 months, the economy is probably over the worst and Gordon Brown - though he admits that he has made mistakes - is not stupid.



If Labour hold Crewe, the economy remains reasonably stable and if Gordon loses the PR men and allows himself to be, well Gordon, then things just might begin to change. Cameron is 'likeable' but not really liked or trusted (particularly by his own party) and he is happy to come across as a leader who is all style but no substance. Once the Tory lead in the polls starts to close in Labour's favour the press will turn on Cameron and the 'traditional' tendency in his own party will start to make rumblings about how he needs to move further to the right etc.

A week really is a long time in politics - two years is a lifetime.


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If Labour hold Crewe, the economy holds up and Gordon 'softens up'... | 12 comments (12 topical)

Re: If Labour hold Crewe, the economy holds.... (#1)

by For the Union on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:00:39 PM GMT

You are correct. The economy is still very strong, inflation is low; employment is high and the stock market is bouyant. There are still alot of "ifs" in regards to the success of a brown government (which is not a comfortable position to be in) - but I do believe that the credit crunch is a temporary episode (like the 97 asian crisis) and brown will show himself the statesman people can trust in the face of faux conservatism from the tories.

Although, the PM is going to have to watch the oil price - he cant allow it to get much higher and do nothing - people will inevitably blame the goverment if they feel poorer. The country will need some drastic tax decreases on fuel if the government wants to keep its favour; otherwise, people will look elsewhere....even to the unthinkable.


Re: If Labour hold Crewe, the economy holds.... (#2)

by BritishAsian on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:58:51 PM GMT

What can Brown do about the oil price? Why should the Saudis etc reduce the price of their one and only export so that western governments can continue to levy enormous taxes on that export?

There are a lot of ifs in this scenario if I may say. I thimk though we should see more of Gordon. He is a very nice man who comes over well in interviews and his speaking voice is vey reassuring, perhaps because he is Scottish.


[ Parent ]

Re: If Labour hold Crewe, the economy holds.... (#3)

by matt1986 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:27:26 AM GMT

I agree. I'm worried about the economy to be honest. I'm not as optimistic as some about the prospects for a quick recovery. After 15 years of a boom we could be in for a recession. Unfortunately Brown can't really do anything about this. This is what happens if you deregulate markets; the whole point is you reduce the ability of governments to intervene when things go bad. And it's impossible to reduce taxes on fuel. If taxes were reduced, oil companies would push up their pre-tax profits so that the price to the consumer stayed the same, but more money went into the hands of companies rather than to the government. This is unfair; companies shouldn't benefit from economic difficulties. Unfortunately, a lot of people might not realise this, and blame Brown for increases in prices. Brown should admit he's pretty powerless, but then point out that under the Conservatives, things would be even worse; they want to roll back what few controls the government has over the economy even further.


[ Parent ]

Re: If Labour hold Crewe, the economy holds.... (#10)

by otware on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:42:54 PM GMT

The public don't agree with you there, an neither do I. Brown is not at all reassuring. Every day it's like being on a terrifying rollercoaster with this man in charge.


[ Parent ]

Re: If Labour hold Crewe... (#4)

by For the Union on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:31:43 AM GMT

I was making the point that the Government will have to consider lowering the tax on fuel (the majority of the cost is tax....) if oil gets out of hand.

 


Re: If Labour hold Crewe (#5)

by Anonymous X on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:38:57 AM GMT

"A week really is a long time in politics - two years is a lifetime." Very true, considering that it was just less than a year ago that the party/government was sky-high in the opinion polls. Still, no time for complacency and hoping that things will just "work out" - the government needs a revitalisation and more progressive direction immediately.


Re: If Labour hold Crewe, ... (#6)

by nickc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:51:36 AM GMT

People are turning against Labour on the grounds of the level of competence displayed (or not) by government and because of the PM's complete lack of communication skills. It is not policy that is the most important factor - it is personalities, and in particular Gordon himself. If we lose Crewe his position will rapidly become untenable. 


Re: If Labour hold Crewe, ... (#7)

by Prbo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:34:26 PM GMT

Very true.  If you've been in power for eleven years, you expect at least a basic level of competence in how to run the country.  We're not seeing that at the moment.

Hearing Gordon and others talking about the need for radical reform in different areas doesn't wash with the electorate.  They know Labour have had eleven years to sort things out - if they haven't by now, then they never will.  After this length of time the message is simple - it's time for a change.  Labour benefited from this in 1997 - the Tories will benefit at the next welection.


[ Parent ]

Re: If Labour hold Crewe, ... (#8)

by swatantra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:40:18 PM GMT

What some people don't seem to understand is that you can never 'sort things out' and then put your feet up. 'Stuff happens' its an ever moving treadmill; you solve one problem and another three takes its place. The purpose of Govt is to keep things moving.


[ Parent ]

Re: If Labour hold Crewe, ... (#9)

by Prbo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:03:47 PM GMT

Very true.  But people recognise that too.  And they know where the Government have failed.  Things like the 10p tax debacle, PFI, ID cards, selling gold at the bottom of the market, non-doms, HMRC discs - these are the symptom of a Government who aren't actually capable of governing with even a basic level of competence.

Events over which you have no control are excused.  The problem for Gordon is that the events he's dealing with are mostly of his own making.  And the electorate recognises this - that's why he's got some of the lowest approval ratings of any prime minister.


[ Parent ]

Re: If ... (#11)

by Simon Morley on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:53:54 PM GMT

This really is tempting fate, and really not wanting to be personal, but given how things have got pretty personal recently, it is a possibility that we will be able to say of Dave Cameron that "he was the future twice."


Oil glorious oil! (#12)

by AngryVoter on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:10:40 AM GMT

Once again we see the oil issue, and once again I point out [though it seems to fall on deaf ears every time I do]

 

The real price of Petrol per litre is around 40p

 After the massive tax hikes that have been done under Brown and the Blair governments the price per litre is 1.10p on average per litre.

It's been the most horrible of the stealth taxes done under labour and people really are finally sick of it. They all pay it because they have to use their cars because not everybody lives in a big city with a nice integrated transportation system like London and Birmingham. 

 That means around 70p per litre goes straight into government coffers.

It also always hits the lowest paid, never the highest, why should they care what the price is? It's small change when you earn £1000+ a day. Same with MPs who claim it on their expenses under travel. Folks are sick of Brown trying to blame the high price of oil per barrel when the oil companies themselves have managed to keep the price properly in check.

 

Also, on the economy. I'm no genuine economist, but I've alwas found it suspect that the inflation figures never ever took into account the Housing market, which at one point was running at some ridiculous rate of inflation at 150%. Chanting that inflation is low when people cannot get onto the housing market at all makes me genuinely suspicious and I think the real inflation is a lot lot higher than the rates set by the BoE.


If Labour hold Crewe, the economy holds up and Gordon 'softens up'... | 12 comments (12 topical)