US Presidential Election Update and Prediction
David Reeves Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:17:29 PM GMT 
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The 2008 US Presidential elections have reached a crucial stage. As a former Gore campaign staffer, I thought I might take now as the opportunity to comment on where the parties stand and what the future may hold.
Democrats
Neither Obama nor Clinton will secure the sufficient number of elected delegates to win the race outright. The Pennsylvanian contest was significant because it will sway the super delegate voters; party officials who hold the balance of power in the nominee contest.
Neither Obama nor Clinton will secure the sufficient number of elected delegates to win the race outright. The Pennsylvanian contest was significant because it will sway the super delegate voters; party officials who hold the balance of power in the nominee contest.
If Hillary secured a margin of less than 10% over Obama the super delegates would have backed Obama and quietly asked Hillary to drop out. If Hillary had won by more than a 10% margin, the super delegates would have backed Hillary as she has won all the big Democrat states. To confuse matters Hillary only won by 10%. This means that the period of uncertainty is set to continue right up to the Convention in September.
The Democrats use a system whereby the total number of delegates in a state is split in proportion to the percentage share vote. The Republicans however use first past the post. Hillary is now arguing that under the Republican system she would already be the Democrat nominee.
Obama has a greater number of victories, though in smaller states. He argues that he has won the popular vote. The issue of fairness is of greater importance to the super delegates. They don’t want a repeat scenario of the 2000 Presidential election where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W Bush won the Whitehouse.
However, the super delegates also have an eye to the November polls. Hillary is leading in the polls with both the older and female voter demographic. These two groups hold the balance of power in a November general election.
In the end I think Obama will prevail in the guise of fairness.
McCain
Born in 1936 and a veteran of Vietnam, McCain would be the oldest first term President in American history. Whilst age is not an issue, his health is increasingly becoming the focus of interest.
I met McCain in Iraq in 2003. He then appeared to be in excellent health. Today on television he appears frail. McCain is registered disabled and draws a Naval pension for injuries sustained whilst a POW in Vietnam. His injuries restrict his mobility.
It is now being asked what would happen if McCain died before the November election. In recent history a US Senator was re-elected, despite his death prior to polling day. The official position on this is that during the primary contests, state delegates are elected. These delegates are loyal to a candidate e.g. McCain. In the event of a death or incapacitation, the Republican party hierarchy would select a replacement candidate, and put it to the state delegates to approve/ratify.
This is slightly complicated by the freezing of candidate names on the ballot paper in certain states, weeks in advance of the polling day. If for example McCain was incapacitated after the freeze, his name and not the name of the new Republican candidate would appear on the ballot paper. In theory a dead president could be elected. This is worst case, and I hope does not happen.
Problematic for McCain would be if during a busy day of speeches and visits, in the heat of the midday sun, having not eaten, drunk or slept for a couple of days, he stumbles, shakes or fails to respond coherently to questions. In a 24hr news culture this would be beamed around the world immediately and his election prospects destroyed beyond hope. This may have nothing to do with health or age, but that does not matter.
Money
Obama has raised a massive amount of money over both McCain and Clinton. In America money wins elections – contests are fought out on the airways through the purchase of advertising time.
McCain needs to raise a lot of money, and quickly if he is to compete with the eventual Democrat candidate. Whilst the ongoing contest between Hillary and Obama could be divisive for the party, it does keep both Democrat candidates in the news.
Running Mates
I am putting my money on Obama selecting John Edwards, running mate to John Kerry in 2004. Both men were recently filmed together outside the home of Obama.
For McCain the choice of running mate is difficult and potentially politically divisive. McCain has been accused of being too liberal for the Republican party, and a natural choice would be for McCain to shore up the religious right through his choice of running mate. This is too obvious I think, and judging by his recent foreign trips and choice of right hand man in every camera shot, former Democrat now turned Independent Senator Joe Lieberman may be an interesting choice. Lieberman who was running mate to Al Gore in 2000 would appeal strongly to middle America – those who rarely vote but if persuaded would hold the balance of power.
US Presidential Election Update and Prediction | 4 comments (4 topical)
US Presidential Election Update and Prediction | 4 comments (4 topical)
