According to leading election expert Prof Colin Rallings of the LGC elections centre at the University of Plymouth, resurgent Tories could make gains deep in traditional Labour heartlands. The Tories require only two percent swings to win control of North Tyneside Council, registering their first metropolitan council in the north-east, as well as a first Welsh council in Vale of Glamorgan Council.

A six percent swing on the 2004 result will win them Cheltenham BC. It will also be looking to retain Coventry City Council, a surprise Conservative win in 2006.

Labour, in contrast, could lose control of Reading BC for the first time since 1986. Nuneaton & Bedworth BC, one of only four councils it controls in the West Midlands, could turn Tory on a four percent swing.

According to Prof Rallings, the system of election `by thirds' under which only a third of councillors are up for election in most English councils means only a handful will see a change in overall control.

"It's very hard to see any councils which will go dramatically over to Labour just because of how all the seats have stacked up against them," he said.

Sir Jeremy Beecham, leader of the Labour Group on the Local Government Association, took a more optimistic outlook, claiming the party would gain seats in Liverpool, Bradford, Lincoln and Birmingham.

However, a senior Labour party source said: "The indications are that the shares of the vote aren't going to be massively different from last year."

Labour lost more than 500 councillors in last year's elections. A repeat performance could see them slip behind the Liberal Democrats to become the third party in local government.

The Conservatives are expected to launch their election campaign on 14 April in Kirklees - winner of LGC's Council of the Year award last week - although this could change.

NOTES TO EDITORS
Losing Reading would leave Labour with no councils in the south east region outside of London. Luton and Stevenage are officially classified as being in the East of England.

Cheltenham (NOC). Current composition Con 17; Lab 1; LD 17; Others 5. Half the council is elected in even numbered years.  Conservatives and Liberal Democrats each need 4 gains to take overall control.  Conservatives have the better chance this year, though it would still take a swing of 6% from Lib Dem since 2004.

Coventry (Con). Current composition Con 28; Lab 23; LD 1; Other 2.  A surprise Conservative gain in 2006: they now cannot afford to lose a single seat and retain overall control. The key wards are Foleshill and Wyken: both won by Con in 2004, but  lost to Labour last year.    

Durham. New authority with 2 seats per old county division, making it the country's largest council (126 members).  Should be a safe Labour bet -Labour won 53 of 63 seats in 2005 (34 of them with majorities in excess of 30%). However, with several deselected Labour councillors threatening to stand as Independents, some shock results could be on the cards.  

North Tyneside (NOC). Current composition Con 28; Lab 23; LD 9. Conservatives are just 3 seats short of winning overall control and possible tension with the Labour elected mayor.  . They need to win the Benton, Collingwood, and Killingworth wards on a 2% swing from Labour since 2004.  Con won them all last year.  

Nuneaton & Bedworth (Lab). Current composition Con 14; Lab 20. Half the council elected in even numbered years.  One of just two Labour held districts with elections this year.  A 4% Labour to Conservative swing since 2004 in Arbury, Bede, Exhall and Heath wards would turn the council straight over to Cameron's party.  

Reading (Lab). Current composition Con 14; Lab 25; LD 7. Labour is in real danger of losing its majority on the council for the first time since 1986.   Conservatives topped the poll in both seats and votes last year, and would make 4 more gains if those results were repeated.    

Vale of Glamorgan (NOC). Current composition Con 20; Lab 16;PC 8; Ind 3. The whole council is up for election. Conservatives need 4 gains to take control and boost their campaign to win the marginal parliamentary seat of the same name.  A 2% swing from Labour since 2004 in the Cornerswell and Dyfan wards could do the trick.