What's Going Wrong?

NorthernMonkey Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 06:23:55 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Two disasterous polls for us in recent days show that we could be in for rough ride in the May elections.



The first poll which was pretty shocking was the Sunday Times / YouGov poll which put the Tories on 43%, Labour on 27% and the LibDems on 16%.

Now I know this may be a rogue poll, but other polls in recent days have put us 9 points behind for example.

Either way, we're clearly losing ground on the Tories and we need to do something about it.

Even more depressing and disturbing (and somewhat surprising) is today's poll for the Evening Standard which puts Boris Johnson on 49%, Ken Livinstone on 37% and Brian Paddick on 12%. Previous polls have put Johnson in the lead as well.

It is bewildering to see how Boris Johnson is getting so much support. But why have things suddenly started going so badly for us? And how can Gordon and Ken change things around?

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What's Going Wrong? | 67 comments (67 topical)

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#1)

by jkitleft on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 06:39:16 PM GMT

For the 48th time, it's because we're not radical enough. £10 says that the next few posts won't be about policies, but about opinion polls.


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#2)

by lastword on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 08:11:10 PM GMT

Ken needs to stop talking about the Evening Standard and start talking about his policies.  They are deliberately trying to distract him and he's taking the bait.  Ken has a massive and positive story to tell.  When are we going to see him touring the constituencies?  My MP says he's not been called on to offer any formal help yet - and the campaign launches tomorrow!   MPs are busy.  Why haven't they already been booked to do London "meet and greet" events everywhere?  It's parliamentary recess from the 4th to 21st April.  I also think that all MPs - whereever in the UK theyr represent - need to cancel their Easter holidays and spend them campaigning in London.  Where is Tom Watson?  We need some of our best and brightest campaigners in the middle of the Labour campaign NOW!


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#4)

by alsoleeds on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 08:29:07 PM GMT

There are council elections all round the country, I think MPs should be out campaigning for Ken when Parliament is sitting, but i wouldn't be very happy if our MP cancelled his local campaigning engagements and headed off to London. I do think all the London MPs need to be organised by London Region tho.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#7)

by lastword on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 09:27:41 PM GMT

I take your point but if we lose London this year, we'll lose the general afterwards.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#3)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 08:16:19 PM GMT

But surely Ken Livingstone is very radical? I can understand why you say that for Brown since he in no way can credibly call himself 'radical. But that's simply not the case for Ken.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#5)

by swatantra on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 08:29:37 PM GMT

Ken needs to get out of City Hall and onto his soapbox; he's lucky he's got Speakers Corner just down the road; he's got to get back to his radical roots. If it wasn't for Ken local government would not have been opened up in the way it hasbeen for all to see. That is his lasting legacy.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#6)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 08:36:02 PM GMT

I agree - in this election, Ken's got to go beyond the bog-standard campaign and be radical. Get amongst the people, accept every interview he can and get the message across strongly and postively without resorting to negative attacks on Johnson (because people don't seem to like that).

Having said that, we as members and supporters need to help as much as possible - lots of canvassing, donations and getting the message across. We all have a part to play.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#8)

by RedRooster on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 10:08:12 PM GMT

As for the national situation... what possible reason would people really have for supporting Labour at the moment?  The news is dominated on a nightly basis on stories of economic turbulence, we just passed a budget the most newsworthy item of which was putting up tax on booze and cars, and the 250,000 children we're lifting out of poverty aren't old enough to vote.

I don't disagree with any of the government's recent policy decisions.  It's a tough time in the global economy, austerity is unavoidable, and it's commendable that the government is still sticking to it's child poverty target.

But we need to be honest with ourselves- doing the right thing now means we will be unpopular for a while.  I personally don't think that either the economy or our reputation will have recovered enough by June 2009, which is why I think holding off the General Election until the last possible moment is the least worst strategy.

Bottom line: we'll be unpopular for a while.  Get used to it :) 


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#9)

by wgm on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:55:27 PM GMT

You could be right, much of what's wrong is outside of our control and we are just going to have to stick with it. Yes Ken is more radical but is suffering none the less, I think pitching toward the left or the centre is going to alienate one group of voters or another. A leftwards shift will only add to the right-wing media's pool of ammunition.

What we might see is some Tory over-confidence, and if they start to be seen as the presumptive winners of the next GE the media might just turn their fire on Cameron in the same way they turned on Brown unless the media think he is popular enough amongst voters that they might risk losing readers.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#10)

by alexhilton on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:48:21 PM GMT

Isn't it a little early for a post mortem?


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#13)

by NorthernMonkey on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 07:37:07 PM GMT

This isn't a post-mortem, it's an urgent medical check to understand what's going wrong so we can fix it and avoid being killed off!


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#66)

by stewrigh on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 06:47:59 PM GMT

Sorry NM its too late, haven't you noticed the wheels have already come off.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#11)

by jkitleft on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 06:21:53 PM GMT

How about a suggestion of any radical policies from the bloogers, for instance:

Maternity leave to be extended to 480 days. Both Male and Female would get 240 days at 90% pay, and then still at a fixed rate, if they choose to take leave for the next 240 days, the rate would be between the current £112.75 and £145. The option would exist of the parents being able to choose their leave at any time in the first eligible 480 days.

Any other suggestions?


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#54)

by sgthowie on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 10:32:45 PM GMT

Very Swedish JK Left but could potentially be a vote winner.  I cannot understand why some in New Labour thinks it would LOSE votes by extending maternity leave to a year and a half and have it on 90% pay.  How could the vast majority of voters NOT be benefitting?? 

Yes, Yes we would hear all the usual tripe about business competitiveness but if it can be done in Sweden why can't it be done here?

I also think some other policies might be popular that would fit with the quality of life agenda.  Firstly, a maximum 35 hour working week as in France and proposed in Venezuala and more bank holidays (not just the extra one proposed by Gordon Brown).  Most people don't like and are very unfulfilled in work. A winning policy, more time off it!!!


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#12)

by Paulstric on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 07:09:57 PM GMT

The budget wasn't especially radical so what I take from it is that Brown and Darling are massively unpopular rather than Labour's policies being at fault. Labour quite simply have no chance at the next election unless both are replaced in my view.

Also Labour's attempts to triangulate Tory policy in areas like Welfare Reform is alienating their core vote and the intervention of the Blarites like Charles Clarke encouraging Brown to go even further to the right could make a bad situation even worse.

Other than replacing Brown & Darling what I think could help is some radical left leaning policies to get the core vote back on board such as raising the starting tax threshold to £10,000 paid for by scrapping the ridiculously overcomplicated Tax Credits system and bringing in a new top rate of 45p for those earning over £150,000.


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#15)

by rwendland on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:50:22 AM GMT

Of course high earners on 40% tax benefit most from simply raising the starting tax threshold to £10,000! Their starting threshold goes up as well, so they save £2,000ish (under your new £150k band) - mere mortals save £1,000ish at most. I guess this is why Tories quite like this idea.

Removing Tax Credits destroys child povery targets. And the removal of  the childcare element would cause many mothers to give up work. And the benefit Replacement Ratio problem would reappear, where you are better off on benefits than a low-paid job.

You need a more sophisticated plan!

Such a shame the administrative implementation of Tax Credits was so poor, as Tax Credits should be a good news story shouted from the treetops. 


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#17)

by Paulstric on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:49:27 PM GMT

This is what I would like to see:

 £0-£10,000  0% Tax

£10,000-£36,000 20% Tax

£36,000-£150,000 41% Tax

£150,000+ 45% tax

Tax Credits scrapped


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#22)

by NorthernMonkey on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:22:04 PM GMT

Sounds good. Ideally I'd like:

£0 - £10k   0% tax
£10k - £30k 15% tax
£30k - £100k 30% tax
£100k + 45% tax

With tax credits scrapped as well. This will obviously cause a decrease in revenue from income tax so taxes would have to be raised elsewhere - perhaps higher corporation tax or green taxes, or an increase in VAT to 20%.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#24)

by rwendland on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:54:14 PM GMT

So both of you are happy for the income of a typical 2 adult + 2 child family, 1 adult working 38 hours at NMW, to fall from £328/week to £234/week?

  2007/8: 210.00 - 18.95 - 12.10 + 30.20 + 38.41 + 81.13 = 328.69

                         (pay - tax - NI + CB + WTC + CTC)

  Paulstric: 210.00 - 3.54 - 1.94 + 30.20 = 234.72

I'm assuming you both intend that NI also start at £10k, or the income drop for this family would be £10/week more.

(Example loosely based on table  1.6b of the 2007 Tax Benefit Model Tables, which I suggest amateur tax & benefit system redesigners study closely.)

 


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#25)

by Paulstric on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 10:10:00 PM GMT

Ah, OK, maybe not such a good idea then....


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#40)

by rwendland on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 12:55:47 AM GMT

Is this notion of increasing the tax threshold toward £10k and reducing tax credits getting any general traction in the Labour Party?

For those earning about NMW, it is good news for single people (more beer money?), but bad news for families. The idea should not be getting a foothold.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#26)

by NorthernMonkey on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 10:19:56 PM GMT

You're right - my estimate was not intended to be a detailed, professional design!

But I do disagree with the logic of taxing people for work and then giving them the tax money back in credits - it's more efficient and less bureaucratic to not tax low-incomes workers so much in the first place.

And income tax policy does not explain the full story. Combined with my brief system outlined above, I'd like to see alterations to other taxes as well - reducing VAT on domestic fuel from 5% to 0%, free public transport for under-18's nationwide and replacing child tax credits with larger child benefit payments all the way up to the age of 18.

So all that combined and more might make poorer families a bit better off?


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#35)

by rwendland on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 02:01:35 AM GMT

No amount of tinkering with tax, NI, VAT and child benefit rates can reproduce the effects of Tax Credits in focusing resources on the least well off. Child benefits aren't subject to an income taper, so they either have to be smaller than Child Tax Credits or very much more expensive to implement.

> But I do disagree with the logic of taxing people for work and then giving them the tax money back in credits - it's more efficient and less bureaucratic to not tax low-incomes workers so much in the first place.

There are very good reasons why the system is as it is, if you look into the details of how you can implement it. 

If you look at the information needed by the traditional tax system and Tax Credits, you can see that unifying them would be an enormous undertaking. Gordon Brown was absolutely right not to attempt it. So I disagree that it would have been more efficient back in 2003 to try to unify them. Ultimately as systems are reimplemented in the natural cycle it may be possible to bring them together.

The essential problem is that the traditional tax system is an after the end of the tax year system, that has no interest in children details. While Tax Credits is a current-time system that needs accurate change of circumstance info, including children, within weeks. Unifying these systems isn't at all easy, and has big risks.

There was an option considered of impementing Tax Credits based on last year incomes rather than current incomes (I think Canada did that). Of course that has the big disadvantage that change of circumstances doesn't bring rapid help, or a reduction. But it is simpler to implement, and matches the tax system after the end of year assesment. With hindsight, perhaps that would have been better though.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#55)

by sgthowie on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 10:40:36 PM GMT

Well, its not such a bad idea.  If the nmw was increased to 7.50 and child benefit also doubled this couple of yours would be much better off and we would not be subsidising low paid employment.

I do in some ways appreciate the efforts to redistribute wealth through the tax credits system but am not a fan of means testing.  Though the take up rate is high amongst poor families it is less than 40% for childless & low paid couples and singletons.  It would also simplify the system and avoid all the cock ups seen by the tax credit system.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#58)

by rwendland on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 02:42:28 PM GMT

Certainly increasing NMW to £7.50 puts a new perspective on this. But really it is something that should have been floated 3 years ago, not in the current economic climate. It also raises the issue of EU immigration - I suspect NMW can only go to that level as a pan-EU effort, without substantial population movement following.

You also need to triple child benefit, not double it, for my example family to be nearly as well off with your proposal at current tax rates:

  2007/8:     210.00 - 18.95 - 12.10 + 30.20 + 38.41 + 81.13 = 328.69

  7.50 NMW & double CB: 285.00 - 35.35 - 19.25 + 60.40 = 290.80

  7.50 NMW & triple CB:  285.00 - 35.35 - 19.25 + 90.60 = 321.00
 

I suspect the costs of your proposal will be excessive, and the main effect would be to enhance single people 's income. But it would be interesting to run the numbers through a simulation model.

Looks like a £7.50 NMW would take almost all workers out of Housing and Council Tax Benefit territory, so helps the Marginal Deduction rate problem. Employers claim it would significantly impact employment - I'm not so sure about that, but it would increase public spending as many public sector employees earn less that £7.50.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#63)

by sgthowie on Sat Mar 29, 2008 at 08:46:32 PM GMT

Well, if we combined this with a 10% rate for earnings up to 10,000 then a 20% rate after that we might be getting close or surpassing it.. 

The problem does come with means tested benefits.  Stephen Byers rightly said that up to 14 billion a year is not claimed in benefits and credits each year.  Child Benefit has one of the highest with 98.2%.  Tax Credits are lower. 

If some of this 14 billion and the cost of the tax credit system was put into a simplified and redistributive tax and benefits system then your family, I'm sure, would be better off. 


Obviously some form of child support would need to be maintained for parents on JSA/IS and I believe it should be more than it is now.  Also, help for childcare would be need also.  However, the tax credit system does support employers who pay low wages. 


The Living Wage campaign in London does show how employers can commit to a wage of 7.20 or more without too much fuss for them.  There are only a minority of employees paid less than this in alot of companies. 




[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#59)

by rwendland on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:56:05 PM GMT

On complexity, AFAICS UK tax credits have simpler complexity and compliance to US tax credits. And before tax credits we had Family Credit and Family Income Supplement, which had their own issues. I think the complexity argument is somewhat overstated. In the US it seems the ordinary annual tax return is of similar complexity to making a UK Tax Credit claim, and they survive - though they are used to the more complex IRS forms it seems.

Also Tax Credits are not strictly "means tested", as they are not asset/savings dependent. They are income dependent as are ordinary taxes - the extra info needed is more on child and family situation, though income changes need prompter notification.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#14)

by Limony on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:42:57 PM GMT

My mobile phone recharger is going wrong a lot.


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#16)

by liz on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:17:05 PM GMT

It is the economy, poor communication from number10, higher taxes in the recent budget, people now aware that they will be paying more tax from April ( the 10% rate removed which was announced in the last budget) and a dull PM and Cabinet.  Added to that, the serialisation of Jonathan Powells book about GB's discourtesy and we are therefore reminded of all the negative personality traits attributed to the PM that have been documented in recent years

The PM can start permitting his Ministers to make announcements - he is hogging the limelight.  There are a couple of good communicators in the cabinet but they seem to be stifled.  The PM needs better skills to get the message over simply - all he does is go on and on with statistics etc and it is utterly boring. 

I am not optimistic - all of my friends who are not committed to the Labour Party but voted for Tony Blair are moving to David Cameron.   Tough times ahead and many MPs will be getting anxious.


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#21)

by NorthernMonkey on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:12:31 PM GMT

I think you've got it right - it's more down to Gordon Brown more than anything else. His lack of boldness and charisma is hurting us hard.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#18)

by jljb2 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:58:07 PM GMT

What's going wrong? New Labour's failed, that's what. If you're only interested in attracting people with self-interest rather than morality then you're always going to have a tenuous grip on power. NL has neither achieved the kind of redistributions we need to build a better society nor forged an enduring coalition of individuals persuaded by Labour's moral case. We need urgently to change direction - and introduce compulsory voting and AV - if we're to avoid defeat and rebuild a left-wing party. We simply don't need the votes of these few individuals in swing seats who we currently focus on so much; with electoral reform and compulsion, they'd become an irrelevance and we could return to our base of TU members/working class/public sector - there's plenty of us. We desperately need to do this if we're really interested in a more equal, more free society. The thing which always amuses me about New Labour and the whole spin culture is that if they were actually any good at spinning, we'd've had no need to change our policies in the first place...


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#19)

by Paulstric on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:06:02 PM GMT

I couldn't agree more but I think it needs to be done under a new leader such as John Denham.

Brown and Darling are just too unpopular now to be electable yet the party seems content to follow them towards the cliff edge like a bunch of lemmings.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#20)

by NorthernMonkey on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:10:04 PM GMT

It's silly to say New Labour has failed given that this Labour government has lasted longer than any other in history.

However, that's not to say there doesn't need to be changes.

We simply don't need the votes of these few individuals in swing seats who we currently focus on so much; with electoral reform and compulsion, they'd become an irrelevance and we could return to our base of TU members/working class/public sector - there's plenty of us.

This is Labour's equivalent of the Tory's relying purely on the Daily Mail vote. It does not work. You cannot just rely on the core vote - you need to reach out to build a broad coalition and that especially includes those who would vote for Blair but would not vote for Brown.

You might be happy for us to be a fringe party with a permanent 25% of the vote, but I'm not.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#23)

by Paulstric on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:41:36 PM GMT

Labour can have whatever policies it wants but with Gordon Brown in charge it won't get anyone other than the absolute core vote to support it.

With a more charismatic and capable leader Labour could be to the left of where they are now and still get reelected in my view.

It's the personnel and presentation and not the policies that are the problem.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#28)

by NorthernMonkey on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:31:30 AM GMT

I agree with you that a charismatic leader is what's needed. And there's nothing wrong if a new leader wants to move leftwards in some areas. A radical stance is what's needed.

But the comment above said we should go back to the purely working-class trade union vote. This will not win us elections and we'll be in opposition as long as we were in the pre-Blair days.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#27)

by jkitleft on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 10:28:34 PM GMT

"a fringe party with 25% of the vote"
even marginal seats, like Croydon Central have swathes of blue-collar workers. A broad coalition is fine, but don't then asked suprise when you turn the concrete foundations of your coalition, into sand, and then when the coaliton starts to sink and crumble.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#29)

by NorthernMonkey on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:33:02 AM GMT

The key to keeping broad coalitions together is a dynamic and charismatic leader. Unfortunately, I don't think we have that at the moment.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#31)

by jljb2 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:40:17 AM GMT

I'm not sure charisma is necessary, it's more about a common purpose. I honestly don't know what kind of society New Labour wants, and I certainly don't know what Brown wants. It's all meaningless stuff about aspiration and opportunity; we need a clear, inclusive message about decency and doing as you'd be done by - that's what Labour's about, and it's a vision that appeals to everyone.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#30)

by jljb2 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:35:30 AM GMT

Well, the TUs alone have about 7m members, millions of mostly working-class people don't vote, particularly ethnic minorities, we've lost loads of our natural supporters and plenty in the public sector still aren't on side. You only need about 9m votes to win an election in Britain, so it's patently obvious that there are enough of our natural supporters out there for us to win without having to appeal to for instance the tiny percentages of people who earn over 50k, whose kids go to private schools or who pay inheritance tax. Personally, I don't want us to be a party in power on 35% of the vote doing next to nothing for the people who this party is for: we're betraying our history and it makes me truly ashamed.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#32)

by NorthernMonkey on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:45:55 AM GMT

I can't agree with you on this one.

You're assuming that all of these trade unionists and public sector workers will

a) Actually turn out to vote (you can have all the best efforts in the world, but you'll be lucky to get a turnout above two thirds in today's politics)

b) They'll all vote Labour - moving far to the left turns more people off us than for us. Even those in the public sector will not necessarily agree with Labour if we move away from New Labour.

c) The Conservative turnout will stay static. If right-wing or centrist voters know that there is a chance that a far left government could get into power, then they'll maximise their turnout and probably get a lot of LibDems on board too (look at 1992).

d) The media will be ultra-hostile against us (see 1992)

Even under PR we'd probably never get over 30% under your method and would have to hope that the LibDems would go into coalition with us - which would then water down Labour's proposals to such an extent that we may as well have stuck with New Labour.

Not to mention, most fundamentally of all, I'm a social-democrat and broadly centrist in my outlook and so I generally agree with the Blairite stance and would be less likely to agree with a great shift away from that.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#33)

by jljb2 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:55:00 AM GMT

All fair points, and of course I accept that not all TUists/w-c/pub sector people will vote Labour, but I actually think that Labour's message should appeal to all decent people; there is nothing scary about believing in a better quality of human relationships. Also, you New Labour people still think we all grew up under Thatcher; I didn't, and I don't know anyone of my generation who sees nationalisation or a more equal society as a threat to freedom or whatever. I think most people are thoroughly fed up with the stale consensus around consumer capitalism, which clearly isn't run for human welfare, and they're just not scared of socialism anymore. And if the spin doctors as good as they reckon, they should be able to sell it to anyone, right?


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#34)

by NorthernMonkey on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 01:52:42 AM GMT

I'm not really convinced by the powers of spin doctors at all to tell the truth!

Not all people who would be considered 'New Labour' or 'Blairites' are the same though. I, for example, would quite happily support the rebellion in the Commons today against the closure of many post offices. And I certainly agree that Labour should appeal to all 'decent people' and I agree with 'believing in a better quality of human relationships'.


And I don't even think terms like 'New Labour' are particularly helpful in the party today given it tends to create divisions.

Whilst I don't think people see nationalisation as a threat to freedom, people see nationalisation as a limit to freedom and also believe that nationalisation, for most cases, does not work. It can often lead to inefficiencies which come back to haunt the British economy and the taxpayer in later years.

As for an 'equal society', I think the vast majority of people in this country support equality of opportunity (as do I) and would support a redistribution of wealth to an extent (as do I), but would not want to see people attacked for simply being rich or on a high-income, provided they earnt that money legally and fairly and pay the appropriate amount of tax.

I think it's a good thing if Labour follows this route too.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#36)

by lastword on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:21:58 AM GMT

Just read on Vote 2007 that the BNP held Havering and we lost in Vassal.  That's it.  We need to get rid of Brown and sort out the London Labour party.  These are just terrible, terrible results and do not bode well at all for May 1st.  I would not like to be a Labour candidate fighting ANY election at the moment.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#37)

by jkitleft on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 10:14:33 AM GMT

The word 'New Labour' connotes why we are in trouble. It connotes a consumerist, materialist culture, that thinks a rebranding, rather than reform is the answer. I'm talking of the most simple of matters, from renaming 'Post Office' to 'Consignia', to renaming the exam course I'm taking for my Science GCSE. Are there any structural reforms made in these rebrandings? No. They're just adding a fresh coat of paint over the cracks.


New Labour has also seemed to think that money will solve all problems, by spending rediculous amounts of money on administration, studies, consultants, inquiries, rebrandings, and contributing to the climate infused with political correctness, which also included wanting to, well, 'include' everyone. It has made my academic life, a lofty one, where I, and I'm sure thousands, do not get any academic stimulation.


Well I'll stop ranting, but Labour has focused too much on the PR, and infused PR into our climate and culture.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#39)

by jljb2 on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 12:27:30 AM GMT

I would gladly dispense with the phrase New Labour if Brown had made any attempt to distance himself from Blairite policies. He has written books about courage and local heros, but has utterly failed to show any courage in defending or evangelising our values: we must put the case for democratic socialism, based on our common values of decency and respect. The fact is that more equal societies are happier, healthier and safer; even in a society of perfect equality of opportunity (which would in itself almost certainly require a high degree of equality of outcome) we would still be left with the problems caused by inequality: as Hattersley has always said, meritocracy merely shifts the patterns of inequality. We need to put the case for a higher degree of equality of outcome regardless of educational achievement etc.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#42)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 04:33:31 AM GMT

People won't accept governments pushing for vastly increased equality of outcome because it's generally accepted that what you earn and your career success should depend on your talent and your hard work. This is meritocracy, and I agree with that.

What social democrats should focus on is increasing equality of opportunity so that all people are given a fair chance in life and can actually have a chance to be successful.

Moving completely away from Blairite policies will not be good for our party and it's not what I believe in either. But changes do need be made and there probably are areas where we can be a lot more radical as a party - everything from energy policy to constitutional reform. We just need bold leadership to carry it through.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#45)

by jljb2 on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 05:42:45 PM GMT

That may be what you believe, but as I say, meritocracy merely shifts inequalities and therefore does precious little to eradicate the many societal ills resulting from them. In any case, a high degree of equality of opportunity is extremely difficult to achieve - if not impossible - without a considerable degree of equality of outcome. That is not to say everyone earns the same amount, but it's clear that 'what you earn and your career success' does NOT currently depend on your talent and hard work - not only is career success largely informed by developmental privileges, but there is no sense in which work done equates to salary. Does a CEO really work harder than his cleaner? Does Philip Green work harder than the whole population of several African countries? I somehow think not. Redistribution obviously makes economic sense aswell, due to the diminishing marginal return of money. You argue that everyone should have the chance to be successful - no-one would argue with that, but what about those who fail? Should they therefore be condemned to live in poverty? That kind of belief has very little to do with Labour values.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#47)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 07:46:00 PM GMT

No, nobody should be condemned to live in poverty. But surely equality of opportunity should also involve improving the opportunites of those who have already failed and now deserve a second chance?

Naturally, if you improve equality of opportunity then you will probably improve equality of outcome as well to an extent.

And no I certainly don't think a CEO works any harder than a cleaner! But that's why I said 'talent' is often crucial to how much you earn. Most people in this country are capable of cleaning, but very few are capable of running a multi-national company, so that's why a CEO's salary is so much higher.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#51)

by jljb2 on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 09:59:18 PM GMT

Surely no-one should be in poverty regardless of what they do with their life? And the idea that a Labour Party member would defend the pay differential between cleaners and CEOs is frankly offensive. It is not at all clear that increased equal opps would increase equal outcomes - for instance, with equal opps we'd expect as many Etonians to end up on the dole as state school pupils; this says nothing about the distribution of wealth, only about the placement of individuals in that distribution. I can only reiterate the point which you continue to miss or ignore: that this would do nothing to address the ills stemming from socio-economic inequality.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#52)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 11:05:36 PM GMT

And the idea that a Labour Party member would defend the pay differential between cleaners and CEOs is frankly offensive

When this sentence comes into it, the debate ends.

Other people have different beliefs from you and you should learn to accept that. Even people on the left cover a broad spectrum of beliefs.

I suspect you'd be 'offended' by most people in the Labour party if you think like that.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#53)

by jljb2 on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 05:54:04 PM GMT

Sorry, no offence intended. I guess I meant 'surprising' rather than offensive. Apologies again.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#56)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:23:27 AM GMT

No worries.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#38)

by Group51 on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 10:41:28 PM GMT

"But surely Ken Livingstone is very radical?"

If by radical you mean he has some distinctive policies that address issues that matter to people then yes, but so has Boris Johnson.  Boris is also very well known and liked, and benefits from the popularity of the Conservative Party and not being the incumbent.  Brian Paddick, the copper from Brixton is also fairly well known.

Thus this election is radically more competitive compared to the last two.

Ken on the other hand has suffered from recent corruption issues, and this has fueled 'time for a change' amongst some.  He also dis-benefits from the unpopularity of Tony Blair (who might as well still be in office, given all the 'change' we've had).  He also has a difficult message on crime, which is that actually crime has gone down, regardless of what the papers say, and what we might think.


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#41)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 04:26:57 AM GMT

I think you're being unfair on Blair blaming this one on him!

If you're going to blame any of the Westminster politicians, blame Brown. The amount of people I've heard say they wish Blair was back in office rather than Brown is untrue. That's why Blair won 3 elections and Brown so far has won 0 and looks increasingly unlikely to win any at this rate.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#43)

by lastword on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 12:15:28 PM GMT

Northern Monkey, for once we agree about something!  Brown's "coronation" is the root cause of all this.  He was not forced to put his ideas to the the party so they could make an informed choice about whether to vote him in as leader, rather we got this totally unknown quality who's now doing all sorts of things in the Labour party's name for which hae had no mandate.  That's why people are not campaigning and staying at home and as Ken's team discovered when they wanted every CLP to deliver 20,000 leaflets in under a week no activists = no leafletters, canvassers or Labour "ambassadors" in the community.  I have never felt so demoralised as I do now and I am actually one of the active ones.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#46)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 07:35:38 PM GMT

I agree lastword.

Looking back now, Brown's coronation was a big mistake. Not only should he have faced a contest from McDonnell but others from different wings from the party should have contested against him too. As you rightly say, Brown never had to come up with a policy plan or manifesto since he didn't have to face an election. This has damaged him in the long run because there is no 'vision' or bold, radical plan of action that all governments need to survive.

I feel desperately sorry for Ken because he does deserve to win - he's done everything that could be expected of him as a Mayor - yet he will suffer because of Labour's unpopularity in the country as a whole.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#67)

by stewrigh on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 06:59:34 PM GMT

Sorry you're both wrong GB is wonderful.
Please don't get rid of him everrrrrrrr


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#44)

by Wiseman on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 03:40:03 PM GMT

As a PPC, I am very worried.  We had a recent by-election in my constituency and our vote fell by 50% after a good campaign.  Somebody at head office better listen, because when I walk into my local all people seem to be talking about is that utilities bill going up.   These are our core vote and after the rubbish budget.  I live near a remploy factory 500 yards away, and we have sold them out.  My seat is not winnable by any means, but I worry for the marginal seats and councils, we are going to get murdered if we are not careful. Boris for London, now I know we are doing something wrong.

John Wiseman
PPC Westmorland and Lonsdale


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#48)

by rwendland on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 08:05:31 PM GMT

Yep, I think you are right that it's the economy. I think Michael White may have it in saying it takes months for economic news to filter thru public appreciation into poll ratings:

ICM's Nick Sparrow, who conducted the Guardian's poll, wonders if there is a delayed reaction. Even after sterling's Black Wednesday in 1992, it took a few more months of home repossessions (75,000 in 1991) and rising unemployment to destroy the Tories' reputation for economic competence. Is Labour suffering the delayed effect of Northern Rock and the aborted election, Sparrow asks?

Of course more bitter winds of economic failure are going to blow in hard from the US. It's going to get bad over the next few years I think. When the public appreciate this, the question is will they trust the known hands of Gordon Brown to protect the ordinary voter as best possible from fierce international winds (sustaining benefits and tax credits for struggling families), or will they prefer to try out the "caring" Cameron brand?

I think the two years ahead are a time for unity around supporting hard-up families. Last thing we need is a Labour faction pushing a more laissez-faire agenda. We need to concentrate on domestic matters and unwind from foreign excursions ASAP.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#49)

by dickwishart on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 08:24:18 PM GMT

The answer is that the great british public have found you out at last, you've done well so far as most Labour governments run out of money after 8 years whereas you have managed 11.
Make the most of the few months you have in power and in the meantime prepare yourselves for the wilderness once again.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#50)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 09:25:11 PM GMT

Lol!

I think that's called prematurely measuring the drapes for the office.

But thanks for pointing out that we have governed for 11 years with great economic success. Let's bear in mind that the economy is still growing now and predicted to grow in the near future.

Dick, your party hasn't won an important election for 16 years so don't hold your breath.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#57)

by dickwishart on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 01:43:42 PM GMT

I seem to recall your Party didn't win for 20 odd years, or are you one of those who have a convenient memory block pre 1997.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#60)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 05:50:53 PM GMT

Pre-1997 we didn't have devolved separate elections for Scotland, Wales and London. If we did, then Labour would have won plenty of them during the Thatcher and Major years.

Since 1992, the Tories haven't won a single important election - whether it be in Westminster, Holyrood, Cardiff Bay or London.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#61)

by dickwishart on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 10:45:29 PM GMT

typical Labour reply, if you cant win the argument then just move the goalposts.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#62)

by NorthernMonkey on Sat Mar 29, 2008 at 07:13:32 PM GMT

Huh? What goalposts would these be exactly?

The fact is your party hasn't won an important election for 16 years. If devolved institutions had been around under Thatcher and Major, we would have won them every time, yet the Tories have not done that.


[ Parent ]

Re: What's Going Wrong? (#64)

by musicman on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 08:36:28 AM GMT

My mind is wrong seeing this post.


Re: What's Going Wrong? (#65)

by musicman on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 07:31:11 AM GMT

If anything goes wrong yet don't worry. Make it correct.

http://lavabeat.net 


What's Going Wrong? | 67 comments (67 topical)