Ipsos-Mori poll has Labour up 6% and Tories down 5%

Mike Ion Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 06:16:36 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Labour has taken a 1% lead in the latest Ipsos-Mori poll - the poll was taken before the Conway story broke.

I have posted before about the fact that Cameron and the Tories should/need to be doing much better if they are to have any chance of forming the next government - based on the recent polls we can expect Team Cameron to move their man even further to the right.





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Ipsos-Mori poll has Labour up 6% and Tories down 5% | 3 comments (3 topical)

Re: Ipsos-Mori poll has Labour up 6% (#1)

by NorthernMonkey on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 08:11:15 PM GMT

Good to see that the polls are still volatile. It's still anyone's game.


Re: Ipsos-Mori poll (#2)

by rwendland on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 08:12:45 PM GMT

I wouldn't get too excited. More recent polls don't repeat this, and Ipsos-MORI a week before was 42% Tory, 32% Lab:

Pollster        Sample dates    Sample size     CON%    LAB%    LIB%

The Times/Populus       4 Jan 08 - 6 Jan 08     1,509   37      33      19
The Sun/Ipsos-MORI      9 Jan 08 - 10 Jan 08    1,006   42      32      15
The Guardian/ICM        18 Jan 08 - 20 Jan 08   1,009   37      35      20
Daily Telegraph/YouGov  21 Jan 08 - 23 Jan 08   1,992   41      33      16
The Independent/ComRes  25 Jan 08 - 27 Jan 08   1,003   38      30      17

AVERAGE 4 Jan 08 - 27 Jan 08    6,519   39.1    32.7    17.3

From this Electoral Calculus predicts a hung parliament with Tories up by 297 to 284. But I'd guess we'll see quite a bit of movement for a while.





 


Re: Ipsos-Mori economy detail (#3)

by rwendland on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 09:27:04 PM GMT

Looking at the more detailed Ipsos MORI analysis, I'm struck that only 29% of the sample regard the Economy as an "important issues facing Britain today" (9% "most important"), wheras crime+immigration is important to 70+% (45% "most important"). This will obviously change over the coming year, as the downturn/recession starts affecting ordinary folk.

This should be good for Brown/Labour if the UK downturn is gentler than elsewhere. If it is not so gentle what will be the reaction: back someone who has been solid for years, or try someone new?


Ipsos-Mori poll has Labour up 6% and Tories down 5% | 3 comments (3 topical)