Tory lead trimmed to 10 points

NorthernMonkey Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 03:19:07 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

New YouGov poll for the Sunday Times:

Conservative 43% (-2)
Labour 33% (+2)
LibDems 14% (-1)




Looks like Brown's strong leadership during the economic crisis is benefiting the party. Still a long way to go though...

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Tory lead trimmed to 10 points | 12 comments (12 topical)

Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#1)

by For the Union on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 05:43:41 PM GMT

So much for the dead cat bounce ;)

The usual suspects are due a large portion of humble pie. 

Cameron has been left in Browns wake - no alternative, no vision and indeed NO PLAN.


Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#3)

by Prbo on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 09:57:30 AM GMT

Electoral Calculus has it coming out as a Tory majority of 48.  Brown triumph indeed!


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#5)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 10:43:47 PM GMT

Well given that's a smaller majority than what we have now, I'd say that's pretty good going.

The Tories get one term and then we roundly kick them out into Opposition where they belong.


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#6)

by Prbo on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:28:31 AM GMT

Lol!  I love your optimism NM, it cheers me up throughout the day...After all, we all know it's the politicians who get to choose the Government, not those pesky voters


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#7)

by NorthernMonkey on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:58:24 AM GMT

Do you think people will be cheering from the streets if David Cameron becomes PM like they did for Blair in 1997? I don't.

The Tories are still likely to win the next election, but they've got nothing to offer the British people. Providing Labour stays sensible but bold and recovers quickly, I can't see why we can't limit the Tory damage to one term.


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#8)

by Prbo on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:02:16 PM GMT

Maybe you're right.  But I wouldn't underestimate the effect of 11 years of a Labour Government.  Aside from a bizarre fillip given by the current crisis, every non-political person I know is sick to the back teeth of this Government & can't wait to get rid of it. 

There may be some truth in what you say about Cameron, but in 4 or 5 years time we'll be living even more with the consequences of the economic problems created under Gordo (both chancellor and PM) and I'd wager the country will be only too happy to keep Labour out of power for a good time yet.


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#9)

by NorthernMonkey on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 02:20:38 PM GMT

every non-political person I know is sick to the back teeth of this Government & can't wait to get rid of it. 

This may be true. But there is NO enthusiasm for the Tories like there was for Labour in the mid-1990's.

Do you think figures like Michael Gove and Andrew Lansley will be popular for any longer than 2 minutes? Osborne will be a weak Chancellor too. I can see the Tories being hated as soon as Cameron gets the keys to Number 10.


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#10)

by Prbo on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:37:18 PM GMT

It depends on what they do, as it always does.  Simply being in office rarely produces hatred (unless you're Pete Mandelson).  If these people implement unpopular policies, then sure they'll be disliked.  But I wouldn't necessarily transfer your visceral hatred of the Tories to the electorate - thankfully they're much more fair-minded than us politicos. 

As an aside, it's really interesting to note how most Labour people view the prospect of a Tory government as signalling the apocalypse, but not vice versa.  I'd say it's pretty uncharitable and rather worrying that labour thinks that noone else is possibly qualified to run the country, particularly given the way they've criticised the Tories for a 'born to rule' attitude in the past (and still today, strangely).


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#11)

by NorthernMonkey on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:45:21 PM GMT

No, I think that's your own rose-tinted view of things I'm afraid!

Tories hate it just as much when Labour is in power.

But I do think the public in general has a more anti-Tory feeling than anti-Labour. Even though people may dislike Labour now, Labour is still seen as the 'good guys' whilst the Tories are the 'nasty party'. I doubt that'll ever change.


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#12)

by Prbo on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 05:55:52 PM GMT

I have to say I think you're not quite right on this, particularly from an historical perspective.  Post-1997 you may have a point, but hitherto the fact that the Tories governed for the vast majority of the 20th century suggests otherwise.  I would say that the pragmatic history of Tory policy has helped them adapt much better to changing political times, whereas Labour has struggled much more.

Having said that, post-Thatcher Labour have proved more adaptable and the Tories less so.  Funny old world!


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Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#2)

by otware on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 12:56:53 AM GMT

Interesting. Labour is not really that far behind its 2005 performance. The problem is that the Lib Dems have collpased completely, so the Tories are still getting a lot of support from them. What we need is for Liberal voters to go back to Cleggy and then Labour will be in a much better position. However, the Lib Dems are so crap at the moment that I can't imagine anybody would want to vote for them.


Re: Tory lead trimmed to 10 points (#4)

by ACLB on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 06:39:04 PM GMT

It is just a reflection of the last month of press which has seen party politics virtually on hold and "governance" as the narrative.

Once things stabilize expect a return to the long term trends.

The LD may play a role, but only as a buffer.

Polling detail shows that the recent improvements are mainly in safe Labour areas, the hard core vote is being shored up, but that doesn't help us very much at all.

The good news is that the hard tory lead was as expected 10 points and not 20.


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Tory lead trimmed to 10 points | 12 comments (12 topical)