After Iowa: Hillary or Obama?
sunderkatwala Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:31:23 PM GMT 
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It is far too early to write Hillary Clinton off. Today, she is probably still the favourite and frontrunner for the nomination. But she may not be after New Hampshire. Taking the theme of 'change' from Obama will be difficult.
It was a much, much better night for the Democrats than the Republicans.
I very much doubt Mike Huckabee will make the Republican nomination in the end - nor how there could be a winning electoral coalition for Huckabee in November, as his economic approach is unacceptable to a large part of the Republican party, while his social agenda will scare off key groups of swing voters. This is good news for the absent Rudy Giuliani and for John McCain, though McCain did not do particularly well. But there is no Republican unity candidate - and that is going to affect their ability to mobilise in November.
Obama won big - by a striking seven point margin, exceeding expectations. The concentrated burst of primaries make timing matter more in 2008 than ever before. They may not pull it off, but right now, the Obama campaign have got everything right.
John Edwards' second place was a strong showing in such a competitive race. But it may not be enough to keep his candidacy going into the Southern primaries after New Hampshire. Clinton-Obama will become a compelling media frame and Edwards will struggle to stay visible. What happens to Edwards fairly strong base of support in the South is an important unknown factor.
It is far, far too early to write Hillary Clinton off. Today, she is probably still the favourite and frontrunner for the nomination. But for how long? I can see three problems for the Clinton pitch, going into the next round of contests.
(1) Both results strengthen the sense that this is a 'change' election. Hillary presented two main 'closing' arguments on the eve of the poll and returned to these in her post-caucus concession speech.
- First, that she can win in November; she has been tested and presents less electoral risk;
- Second, that she is the President who will be 'ready of day one'.
- First, that she can win in November; she has been tested and presents less electoral risk;
- Second, that she is the President who will be 'ready of day one'.
So Hillary wants to stand for 'the experience to deliver change'. But the contrast with Obama risks making her 'the Establishment' against the risk of 'Change', in a race with no other status quo candidate.
(2) The high turnout and Obama's crossover appeal to independents may strengthen his core 'uniter, not a divider' argument. Over the next week, a sense of what these results and New Hampshire mean on 'electability' will emerge. That will be the substance at stake in the post-match spin and counter-spin.
(3) If the momentum of Iowa and the media focus propel Obama to victory in New Hampshire, Obama would become the favourite.
The Hillary Clinton campaign has been a 'safety first' campaign of the frontrunner. Could she emulate her husband's 'comeback kid' reputation? They are very different politicians. I doubt she could change her strategy or argument significantly without it looking like panic, and costing her in authenticity. If that means 'going negative' it will backfire and play to Obama's strengths.
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The Hillary Clinton campaign has been a 'safety first' campaign of the frontrunner. Could she emulate her husband's 'comeback kid' reputation? They are very different politicians. I doubt she could change her strategy or argument significantly without it looking like panic, and costing her in authenticity. If that means 'going negative' it will backfire and play to Obama's strengths.
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The Obama campaign is still an unlikely insurgency - yet that is precisely its appeal if it can be shown to be a viable one. Hillary Clinton will have to hold her nerve, but she may find that she is in the campaign race on the terms that her opponent wanted to define.
More at http://www.worldafterbush.blogspot.com/
After Iowa: Hillary or Obama? | 6 comments (6 topical)
After Iowa: Hillary or Obama? | 6 comments (6 topical)
