To: Gordon Re: Election

What advice do people have to Gordon for the General Election? My recommendation now would be this spring, to give time for a real national debate on our manifesto. Gordon’s premiership started with a commitment to constitutional change, to restore trust in politics and make Britain fairer. Despite the almost inevitable events that have obscured that purpose over the summer, it seems to me this remains the key to the political challenges that lie ahead. Announcing an intention for a spring election when Parliament returns, following an intensive winter of debate, has the political merit that Gordon cannot be accused of bottling it, but neither can he be accused of calling an election just for a personal mandate.

It is conceivable that a radical constitution-changing manifesto could be ready to launch once Parliament returns, but constitutional change is best not pursued in haste. EU reform and Britain’s international commitments generally are issues that would be covered, but so would a radical reallocation of public service accountability, encompassing at least health and criminal justice, to local authorities or groups of local authorities. NHS reconfiguration is almost certainly needed, but can only work when tailored to individual localities, not simply by running numbers through an office in Whitehall. Tackling the causes of crime likewise is a major political issue requiring an attention to detail simply not possible at a national level. Schools and economic development are already nominally local issues, though you would not know it from press coverage, so should be included.

The whole question of participation in politics, particularly representation of women and minority ethnic communities, is also one that continues to elude solution. Lords reform and electoral reform are paths to addressing this. For these changes to be effective, supporting changes may be necessary in areas like broadcasting regulation. Manifesto commitments are the normal British way to constitutional change, particularly when they do not admit of simple yes/no choices, and probably the most powerful lever for loosening central government’s grip on all these issues.

From a party perspective, central financial and organisational support could be lavished on local parties for policy forums bringing together the range of local groups and media, feeding into the manifesto through the NPF process. It would be an intensive general election campaign, but spread over months rather than weeks, and not so intensive it leaves activists struggling to combine this with the rest of their busy lives; exactly the kind of election campaign to strengthen Labour’s claim to be the natural party of government.



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Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#1)

Lot's of wishful thinking!

The Council of War will give him advice on the bases of what focus groups and private polling has said, plus how the Tories perform next week at their conference.  I do'nt think the idea of a 'real national debate on our manifesto' will be entering the debate at Chequers this weekend.

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#2)

I think they call it the Co-ordination Committee - not the Council of War   :)

The longer the campaign is, the more it benefits the party in second place. the long election of 1997 was an act for desperation on behalf of John Major.

When's Major being invited to tea at Number 10 by the way?

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#4)

To deal with Major being invited to No. 10 - they will have to wait for him to stop following the England cricket team to all parts of the globe first! :)

As for the election, whilst the strong consensus is November, I would really wait until May next year as there are two major drawbacks to November: firstly the hour will have altered, making the last two hours of voting in darkness, and secondly the Register will be nine months old, making voter ID much harder.

Does anyone have any ideas as to where Griffin of the BNP is likely to stand this time?

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#9)

Griffin's talking about Barking or Dagenham.

We have a rolling register - it shouldn't matter what time of years it is.

We're supposed to have a democracy all year round, not just spring to autumn. If we're incapable of holding a properly-functioning election outside this time, we have a real problem.

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#10)

Exactly. I thought the head of the AEA had an absolute cheek saying that Brown shouldn't call an election now - it's not for him to say. They're basically interfering and disrupting democracy.

They should be prepared for a general election at any time of year. What would they do if we had a minority government and they lost of vote of confidence? Would they say 'sorry, but we can't hold the general election because we're not ready for it?'

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#3)

For those of us in the marginals (top 30 Tory target seats) the prospect of waiting until Spring, while our opponents spend the £25k given to them by Lord Ashcroft (without dipping into their personal fortune) does not appeal.
The polls may get better than this, they probably will worsen. Gordon should go now - we are likely to get back with a majority of 70-110 which will be much harder for whoever is leading the Tories (or their successors) to overturn in 2012.

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#5)

But we've already got a workable majority of 68.
Why not wait till 2008? Its a 4th Term we are asking for, incredibly hard for any party to achieve. I think major was returned in '92 for a Tory 4th term by only about 50 which was slowly whittled away, by rebellions and losses at by elections. What Labour has to understand is that the next few years will require a radical review of how we do politics, and an acceptance of PR. Landscale majorities for any party is simply out of the question.Its the era of coalition politics from now on.

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#6)

It was less than that - the Tories won in 1992 with an overall majority of just 21.

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#7)

To my way of thinking their is no political gain for the party in going early (May 2009 is the earlist date GB should even consider going). Any autumn election would be seen as cynical, might provoke a new low level of turnout, would turn within 48 hours away from any surgical dismatling of Cameron and instead would become the "Stop the Brown Juggernort" election.

If no autumn election then no 2008 election and TBH that would be a better result for the Labour Party, the country and the Government, get on with governing.

Re: To: Gordon Re: Election (#8)

No early election please!
Brown should wait untill May 2008 and have the London Mayoral elections on the same day as the general election. If an election is called now then London will probably have some sort of negetive backlash and Boris will be mayor so we should wait and let the tories and libs destroy themeselfs and go in 2008

Channel 4 News thinks it's on (#11)

Channel 4 News' political editor thinks were on for an election soon: "there are so many meetings happening in No 10 and the Labour Party then if this is not serious planning for an election than this is the biggest leg-pull in history."

Re: Channel 4 News thinks it's on (#12)

They should wait until May at the least... there is simply no need for one. There are many open seats which would suffer from imposed shortlists too.

This debate started only in the media - they were the ones talking about the election and it just became a frenzy. GB was doing a good job just running the country and people like that... now whatever he does is questioned... just like today.