The Polls.
Yes we're doing well but are we doing well enough? The question is not how far ahead we are but how resilient is our lead? Six weeks of heavy campaigning can dent those polls. Need I remind anyone of 1992? So when the PM has until July 2010, he can afford to wait for another good period if this poll lead dissapates.

The Tories.
In favour of an early election is the Tory financial position. They are willing to spend up to £50,000 in each of their target constituencies before the election is even called. An early election means they won't be able to target that money due to election expenses limits. Also, even if they are performing badly against us, they're doing well against the LibDems and would be likely to pick up seats anyway. The new boundaries also favour them, reducing Labour's notional seat tally by about 13.

David Cameron.
The longer Labour is ahead, the weaker Cameron gets. If there is a leadership challenge, there is a danger that the new leader is more popular than "Dave". The ideal time would be when David's losing control of his party but before a leadership election. It would be seen as a bit mean and opportunistic to call an election if the Tories were in the process of picking a leader and they could steal the timetable for a while by announcing a long leadership campaign as Michael Howard did. Look out for the media describing Cameron as "Beleaguered Tory Leader".

Logistics.
It's true, we don't have a lot of candidates in place - and though unwinnables may be relieved not to go through the entire process when they are expecting to get only two or three applicants anyway, do the regional parties really have the capacity to administer large numbers of emergency selections at short notice? Labour is also planning to roll out new elections software in time for the London Elections in 2008 to replace Labour.Contact. Might this software be effective enough to win seats - an accolade attributed to Ian Mikardo's Reading Pads?

Policy.
The Comprehensive Spending Review is due to be published shortly after the recess and Gordon's team have been working on it for years now - it should contain some exciting proposals that could extend our poll lead further. The CSR is effectively our manifesto anyway for any election called in the next 18 months to two years. The Queens Speech on the other hand - the programme for the coming year - would be harder to use as an election springboard.Having the QS, the Christmas Address and another QS (same as the last) in quick succession would be just a bit weird. After the CSR is published, it's hard for innovative policies to appear in the manifesto because they look poorly thought out if they were not thought of or sufficiently researched to be in the CSR.

The Mandate.
Tories have been calling for Gordon to have a general election on the basis of having no mandate. Of course they're silly, though if they want a presidential republic, I'd be happy to discuss it. However, the sentiment is not without some public support. My opinion is that Gordon can go to the polls wanting a new mandate as late as spring or summer 2008 - but after that people would be justified in wondering why he needs a new mandate if the existing one has been good enough for more than a year.

Libdems.
Meh.

My Hot Dates.

November 2007.
Conference energises party. House returns. CSR published. Three days of debate on it and lots of "helpful" media briefings on the detail. Election called when public reaction guaged.

February 2008.
PM calls election immediately after the Christmas recess, taking advantage of the post Christmas positivity.

April 2008.
Buggers Boris in London, effectively shortening his campaign time because he'll not want to be seen neglecting Henley, even if it is a "safe" seat. Gambling on a win or even an increased majority, this could mean the party activist base rolls directly from a victory to the London campaign. A new cohort of MPs can also be told that the way to get the PM's attention is to be manic with activity in London - they'll be shipping activists in from all over the country.

May 2008.
Also buggers Boris - because he'll be fighting Henley on the same day. However, given the complicated voting system in London, Election Officers may not be keen on holding London and General elections simultaneously.

June 2008.
Have a look at the London and national local election results. Three days for statistical analysis and an election called if it looks like a win. Didn't Thatcher do that in 1983? Is that what Gordon was chatting to her about?