10 Weeks to a General Election?

Glass House Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 06:30:26 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

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Benedict Brogan says that the Tories have put themselves on a ten week election alert

How likely do people this an early election is?

I can certainly see the benefits 



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10 Weeks to a General Election? | 8 comments (8 topical)

Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#1)

by otware on Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 07:51:12 PM GMT

It's possible...Brown is riding high at the moment and the Tories and Lib Dems are looking more ridiculous than the Monster Raving Loonies.


Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#2)

by SocialistAC on Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 08:36:34 PM GMT

The LibDems are particularly in a bad situation. I honestly can't remember the party being so irrelevant since the the late '80s.


[ Parent ]

Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#3)

by MM on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:18:39 AM GMT

Is Brown riding that high?  The last ICM poll put Labour on 37% (-2), Tories 35% (nc), Lib Dems 17% (-1).  That hardly seems a great bases to goto a early election does it?  I guess we will have to see what the upcoming polls sugest and see how big or small the so-called 'Brown bounce' is.  It's sensible to keep the option of a early election open and it does through the Tories and Lib Dems in a little panic.  But do Labour really have the financial resources to fight a General Election so quickly?

Given Brown's caution and how long he has waited and plotted to become PM he 's unlikely to take risk's.  2008/9 seems more likely surely?

In most polls the Lib Dems are around 18/19% is that really that bad for party of that size and with their organization and lack of finances?  It was pretty clear after the 2005 election which was the high water-mark for the Lib Dems they were going to get squeezed, perhaps now they are just getting back to their natural level.  Given that they have a very ineffective leader I think it's pretty remarkable they can still get around 18% in the polls.  The days of the Lib Dems getting 25% etc I think are long gone, unless Brown decides to join a invasion of Iran.


[ Parent ]

Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#4)

by red flagger on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 06:51:39 PM GMT

There's still a lot of CLPs yet to select candidates for the next GE- surely 10 weeks is too short a time scale to sort it all out?


Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#5)

by grimupnorth on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 07:41:10 PM GMT

I sincerely  hope so as  have  just forked  out a couple  of hundred quid for LP Conference.


[ Parent ]

Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#6)

by Loz on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 09:29:04 PM GMT

I think the only reason Brown should have for going for an election if is he thinks his government will be a complete failure.


My hope is that he waits a year or so, helps continue the re energizing of the Labour Party, and then, riding a hopefully popular wave after a successful year in government, calls an election while the lib dem knives are out for Ming and Cameron is still waiting on IDS to bring out his 'next big idea'.


These Tories are a mess - they lack any sort of credible policy - every time they open thier mouths they piss the base off even more.


Brown meanwhile has a progressive plan for government - and while it's markedly different from the Blair years, I do actually quite like his approach.


Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#7)

by Curlew on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 09:45:24 PM GMT

10 or so weeks wouldn't surprise me at all.  Brown's been wooing lots of sections of the electorate - reversing many of Blairs recent changes - it's definitely on the cards.

Blast!


Re: 10 Weeks to a General Election? (#8)

by swatantra on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 10:23:43 AM GMT

Its not really enough time to bed in policies or prove to electors that we have materially changed from the Blair years. The Tories will go on Europe, Tax and the disaster of the Iraq War. And we haven't yet set out any clear guidelines about all three.


[ Parent ]

10 Weeks to a General Election? | 8 comments (8 topical)