Those results in full

alexhilton Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 11:55:30 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Just thought this might be a good place to post the results in full so people can comment on the statistical points. The first thing on my mind is that Benn was second in the Member section and a very slight third in the Union section when he was removed from the ballot - and was just 16 MPs short of beating Jon Cruddas...

...and who knows where Jon's preferences would have gone if a Benn were still in play?...




Candidate        Members of affiliated organisations    Individual members    MPs and MEPs    Total
    Jon Cruddas    9.09%    5.67%    4.63%    19.39%
    Harriet Harman    4.35%    8.04%    6.54%    18.93%
    Alan Johnson    4.55%    5.53%    8.08%    18.16%
    Hilary Benn    4.93%    7.21%    4.27%    16.40%
    Peter Hain    6.64%    3.87%    4.81%    15.32%
    Hazel Blears    3.77%    3%    4.99%    11.77%

Hazel Blears finished in 6th place in the first round and was therefore eliminated.                   

Candidate        Members of affiliated organisations    Individual members    MPs and MEPs    Total
    Alan Johnson    5.91%    6.35%    11.47%    23.74%
    Harriet Harman    5.15%    8.80%    7.29%    21.23%
    Jon Cruddas    9.64%    6.01%    4.74%    20.39%
    Hilary Benn    5.56%    7.93%    4.74%    18.22%
    Peter Hain    7.08%    4.24%    5.10%    16.42%

Peter Hain finished in 5th place and was eliminated in the second round of voting.                   

Candidate        Members of affiliated organisations    Individual members    MPs and MEPs    Total
    Alan Johnson    7.81%    7.31%    12.78%    27.90%
    Harriet Harman    7.12%    10.15%    8.61%    25.88%
    Jon Cruddas    11.01%    6.58%    6.30%    23.89%
    Hilary Benn    7.39%    9.29%    5.65%    22.33%

Hilary Benn finished in 4th place and was eliminated in the third round of voting.                   

Candidate        Members of affiliated organisations    Individual members    MPs and MEPs    Total
    Alan Johnson    10.25%    10.70%    15.39%    36.35%
    Harriet Harman    9.46%    13.82%    10.29%    33.58%
    Jon Cruddas    13.61%    8.81%    7.65%    30.06%

Jon Cruddas finished in 3rd place and was eliminated in the fourth round of voting.                   

Candidate        Members of affiliated organisations    Individual members    MPs and MEPs    Total
    Harriet Harman    16.18%    18.83%    15.42%    50.43%
    Alan Johnson    17.15%    14.50%    17.91%    49.56%


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Those results in full | 16 comments (16 topical)

Re: Those results in full (#1)

by alexhilton on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 12:08:55 AM GMT

Also, it looks like one Blears-supporting MP voted for Cruddas as a second preference. Politically, that's an interesting choice. I'd love to know who that was


Re: Those results in full (#2)

by Jeff Rubin on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 12:44:21 AM GMT

I think extent to which Johnson relied on MP votes is interesting - I think he'd have finished fourth if it was just based on members and affiliates votes. This highlights what I think is an important point - considering they already control who gets on the ballot is it fair that MPs, a tiny (though clearly important) minority within the party, also have a 3rd of the vote?


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#3)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 01:16:07 AM GMT

Given that the affiliated organisations had a turnout of less than 10%, there is also a good argument for removing their third of the vote too.


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#4)

by alexhilton on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 02:19:21 AM GMT

approximately 300,000 affiliates voted while about 100,000 Labour Party ballots were cast - I don't think we're at the stage yet where we should break the link


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#6)

by Unity on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 11:54:43 AM GMT

Not necessarily Alex.

It could - and most likely is - no more than the effect of a small number of Blears supporters not putting up a second preference at all.

I've got an excel file with all the numbers and an breakdown of how the redistributed votes spilt in each round over at MoT (for download) which shows some interesting shifts.

Johnson got about half Blears' vote, with Harman picking up a quarter or so - that'll be the chromosomal vote kicking in.

Hain's and Benn's votes both split four ways but slightly against Cruddas.

The union vote for Cruddas split 50-50 between Johnson and Harman, so the Blairite talk of Amicus/TGWU handing the DL to Harman is nonsense. Harman won because she did consistently well in the members' section and took Cruddas's MP/MEP vote by 2:1 over Johnson. 


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#5)

by jkitleft on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 10:26:51 AM GMT

also, who knows where the Harman preferences would go, if Cruddas had finished in front of her.


Re: Those results in full (#7)

by grassrootsgal on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 12:01:44 PM GMT

"Just 16 MPs" - given the trouble Benn had scrobbling enough MPs to get on the ballot, 16 MPs is a huge gap.


Re: Those results in full (#8)

by Glass House on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 01:52:46 PM GMT

I think it's interesting that Harman was one of the least-supported candidates on this site.

For the most part, we were all banging on about Johnson, Benn and Cruddas. 


Re: Those results in full (#9)

by grimupnorth on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 03:33:43 PM GMT

Glass, I really don't remember ANYONE banging on about Johnson.Thank God he didn't win.As it was, my 2nd pref went to Harman (Hain 1).It was basically  just to stop AJ.


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#10)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 03:42:48 PM GMT

Well to be fair, he did come second and was within 1% of victory so plenty of people must have liked him.


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#12)

by Glass House on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 04:45:28 PM GMT

I voted Johnson, first preference. Anyhoo, my point was that it's interesting that Harman was even an outsider here.


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#13)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 05:43:32 PM GMT

Yes, I voted for Johnson too as first preference.


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#11)

by rwendland on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 03:51:20 PM GMT

Warning to anyone trying to do exact analysis with Alex's numbers above - there appear to be small transcription errors in the data.  e.g. the round one MP/MEP% is wrong for Harriet Harman (should be 6.504%) and Alan Johnson (should be 8.108%).

I was interested to compare MP nomination numbers with first round MP/MEP votes, to see where the 19 MEPs, and 21 MPs who chose not to nominate (Ministers mainly), voted in round one.

Looks like Alan Johnson got near half of these (18), with  Harriet (8) and Hazel (7) picking up most of the rest:

    Candidate    MP nominations    MP/MEP votes

    Jon Cruddas        49        52
    Harriet Harman        65        73
    Alan Johnson        73        91
    Hilary Benn        47        48
    Peter Hain        51        54
    Hazel Blears        49        56

No-one got fewer votes than nominations, so no obvious sign of tactical public nominations in play. 

NB  374 MP/MEPs voted in round one I think, so each vote worth 0.08912%.


Re: Those results in full (#14)

by Andrea on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 06:12:14 PM GMT

"to see where the 19 MEPs"  <br> <br>

I think all MEPs nominated:

Benn 4 MEPs (Corbett, Evans, Howitt, McAvan)
Blears 1 (Titley)
Cruddas 2 (Ford and Hughes)
Hain 1 (Morgan)
Harman 2 (Kinnock and Honeyball)
Johnson 9 (Cashman, Gill, Martin, McCartney, Moraes, Simpson, Skinner, Stihler, Wilmott)


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#15)

by rwendland on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 08:09:36 PM GMT

So it looks like 3 MPs who nominated Benn didn't vote for him in round one. Favours called in by his dad to get him over the 45 nomination threshold?

As Benn seems competent and amenable, why does he struggle to get MP support? He's probably not well-in with the art of political horse-trading, but is there more to it? Perhaps he is trying to sail an independent course between the left and right groupings, so does not have group support?


[ Parent ]

Re: Those results in full (#16)

by Parishpumpspin on Fri Jul 13, 2007 at 01:47:16 PM GMT

time to add a late reflective aspect on this. Firstly i think Hilary did rather well to come second in the memberships first preferences and clearly without the "must be a woman" vote he would have won that section. The party has been lucky this time that the memberships first preferences reflected the final results but clearly the distortions of the MP block and Trade Union section (both which need abolishing before the next leadership contest) had a potential to mess that up.


Hilary did everything he could to win in terms of policy and personality, some of his team did some decent work also(although this wasn't some peoples finest hour)...however I can state without fear of contridiction that his London based volunteer campaign office will not be remembered fondly by me. Too much emphasis on random telephone cavassing, not enough on real contact IMHO (I believe over 50% of the membership never got Hilary's material and that every other campaign managed a 95% contact). Having donated what for me was a significant amount of money to the HB campaign I would have prefered more focus, less departmentalisation and a touch more consideration for volunteers than a young co-opted "manager" sent on a confidence building exercise had the capacity for. My final point is this, for all the blogs, special advisors or ex party staff you can muster in a leadership election, sometimes plain old fashioned organisation and judgement are just as, if not more, important.


Those results in full | 16 comments (16 topical)