Is Labour in meltdown?

steppenwolff Mon Mar 19, 2007 at 09:34:40 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Brand new ICM poll in tomorrow morning's Guardian. Headline is "Brown would be gift to Tories"



http://politics.guardian.co.uk/homeaffairs/story/0,,2037861,00.html

Currently
Labour 31% (nc)
Conservatives 41% (+1)
Lib Dem 18% (-1)

With Gordon Brown
Labour 28% (-3)
Conservatives 43 (+2)
Lib Dem 18% (nc)


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Is Labour in meltdown? | 16 comments (16 topical)

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#1)

by Andrea on Mon Mar 19, 2007 at 09:42:35 PM GMT

"Labour 28% (-3)
Conservatives 43 (+2)"

the camparison with last month in the DC/GB/Ming question is Lab -1 Con +1


Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#2)

by grimupnorth on Mon Mar 19, 2007 at 10:01:42 PM GMT

Obviously Brown is in meltdown. He's left it too late.Terrible news both for him and the Party.But maybe good news for his rivals.


Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#3)

by JR on Mon Mar 19, 2007 at 11:48:29 PM GMT

Things are going from bad to worse.

We've only got ourselves to blame by not pushing forward a proper candidate to challenge Brown.

When Brown does become PM, he better do something spectacular and quick.


Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#4)

by bornin84 on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 12:26:28 AM GMT

For me these polls don't really work properly. You cannot use a poll that compares 2 party leaders versus somebody who might be the next party leader.

Yes, I know he is almost a certainty for the position but until people actually seem him in No.10 they wont be able to visualise him as a Party Leader / PM.

I would hope that once we have a new leader the polls would swing back round towards us but the possibility might be that the current polls become a self-fulfilling prophecy and voters begin to believe that Brown cannot win and the Tories are unstoppable.


Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#5)

by stevie1969 on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 08:59:29 AM GMT

let's face it 41:31 is bad enough for NuLab. After 10 years, the conrolling nature of the 2 at the top have destroyed any credible alternative. I fear the economy is now turning down and housing is predicted to be dropping. That could be the end of Gordon Brown and the end for NuLab if Gordon is PM.

The May local and Scottish/Welsh elections could be a blood bath.


Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#6)

by grimupnorth on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 11:56:53 AM GMT

If Brown does become  PM  it will be the worst start EVER for a Labour leader. Even Michael foot had a "honeymoon" period and  at least Thatcher  was  loathed.Not so with Cameron.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#7)

by JR on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 01:14:04 PM GMT

It's not that people want New Labour to end, it's that they hate Brown. That's why when people are asked who they would vote when Brown takes over, Labour's vote drops even lower.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#8)

by grimupnorth on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:31:59 PM GMT

Brown IS New Labour . So logically speaking JR that shouldn't be a problem no?


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#9)

by Glass House on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:47:48 PM GMT

You're thinking of New Labour as a specific group of people. JR is talking about it in terms of a 'modernised Labour Party' - i.e. no return to some of the party's old shibboleths, pro-market and pro-private enterprise.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#10)

by grimupnorth on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:31:10 PM GMT

Just  like the Tories.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#11)

by Glass House on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:52:32 PM GMT

Just because the Tories are for something doesn't mean that we should be against it. If market solutions can be set to work dealing with socialist priorities, we'd be crazy not to implement them.

The left shouldn't be about being anti-market. It should be about equality and solidarity and creating a situation in which every individual, no matter what their background, can be all that they can be.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#13)

by grimupnorth on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:28:52 PM GMT

Your last par about equality and solidarity  is correct but there is no room for  proper Labour values within Brown's rabid pro-market, anti-union,  Thatcherite  policy ideas and  appaling enthusiasms for "flexible" global capitalism. Time and time again it works to exploit, not empower, people.When push comes to shove, the lowest-paid and  most vulenrable suffer. Nothing Labour about that.  
Social enterprises can operate within a mixed economy - they and we have to -   but they also retain ethical values.
Capitalism is not, and was never designed to be, a benevolent force. In  boom periods , people do well. Well, some  of them.  When the s*** hits the fan, as it soon will,  we will see just how benign it is.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#15)

by Glass House on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 06:22:45 PM GMT

Yes, there is an unacceptable face of capitalism. But that shouldn't blind us to the fact that the majority of the outcomes of a market economy are good - we just need government to fix the rest. I would guess that you and I simply disagree on the amount that government needs to fix.

Ultimately, it's the private sector that generates the wealth & tax revenues that we use on schools and hospitals. That's not to say that makes any organisation that pays tax inherently 'good' - it simply means that we need a flourishing private sector

As for the downside of globalisation (and I hope you'll excuse me a 'West Wing' quote), "Free Trade stops wars - and we'll fix the rest"


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#12)

by JR on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:04:47 PM GMT

But in the public's eyes, Brown IS NOT New Labour. They see him as an old socialist who is going to tax them silly and impose more nanny-state restrictions on them.

In reality, Brown will try to act more New Labour than Blair in a desperate attempt to prove he is no old socialist, but everybody knows that he doesn't seriously believe in these values.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#14)

by grimupnorth on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:30:08 PM GMT

I wish you were  right JR but you have nothing to fear. Brown's "socialism" went years ago.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is Labour in meltdown? (#16)

by doctordunc on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 11:44:05 PM GMT

I'm sure he does believe in those values (unfortunately).  He invented New Labour - along with Blair and Mandelson.  And all the disagreements have been personal not political.


[ Parent ]

Is Labour in meltdown? | 16 comments (16 topical)