Tony Blair at National Policy Forum

Considering the week gone by, Tony Blair really did give an amazingly relaxed and confident performance at Saturday's National Policy Forum and a speech which directly challenged (as ever) those who think getting back to the grassroots can win the next election.

In his speech, he compared Thatcher's Tories before 1987 with Major's before 1997. After 1985, they recovered from the miners' strike and Westland doldrums to overturn Labour's opinion poll lead and win strongly in 1987 because people still trusted them to make tough decisons and decided they were the only party who could govern. In contrast, Major's Tories had visibly given up governing, with few ideas and failing to even try to outmanoeuvre the Labour opposition. Whilst Labour still has the ideas and the vision, Cameron is trying to paper over their internal differences rather that resolve them thorough leadership. Despite the current storms, he was confident that they would not decide the next election. The recent calls to retreat to the comfort zone of shoring up our core voters were fine "up to a point" but would mean losing. Caution is our enemy, tough decisions and constant modernisation is essential. His speech was followed by electoral analysis of the boundary changes from Greg Cook which argued that, more than ever before, we need to win over non-industrial seats with few working class voters in order to win the next election.

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