Barckley Sumner

ALAN JOHNSON'S prospects of becoming Labour's deputy leader could be damaged if he fails to win the endorsement of any major trade union leader.
Mr Johnson, the Education Secretary, is currently in a strong position in what is so far a six-way contest as it is thought that he will receive the votes of between 80-100 Labour MPs, giving him a solid base in the electoral college.
MPs, party members and trade unionists who pay the political levy, each receive a third of the votes in the electoral college used to elect Labour's leader and deputy leader.
Despite being a former union general secretary, Mr Johnson's prospects among the unions are not rosy. At the beginning of the year, it was thought likely that he would win the endorsement of both public services union UNISON and his own former union, the Communication Workers' Union. Neither endorsement is now guaranteed.
Unlike many union leaders, UNISON general secretary Dave Prentis has a high regard for Mr Johnson. When Mr Johnson was Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, he delivered what was considered a very good deal on pensions for more than a million public sector workers (including health workers), which allowed existing employees to continue to retire at 60.
Less popular within UNISON is Mr Johnson's strong backing for Labour's public service reforms and his desire to reduce
the influence of the unions in the party's decision-making.
One senior UNISON official said: "Johnson was the overwhelming favourite but that is no longer the case."
If UNISON does not support Mr Johnson, the five other candidates all have realistic chances of winning the union's endorsement.
Mr Johnson has been working hard to secure the nomination of the CWU but this is by no means certain. Many CWU executive members remain disappointed that he failed to do more to help the Post Office during his tenure as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry.
If the CWU decides not to back Mr Johnson, it is likely to give its support to Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain, who was once its research officer or backbencher Jon Cruddas.
Mr Cruddas is strongly tipped to win the endorsement of both the Transport and General Workers' Union and Amicus. Both unions have already given considerable support to his campaign.
The fourth of the big four unions, the GMB, remains undecided. General secretary Paul Kenny has met all the deputy leadership candidates and the union intends to hold hustings during its conference in June.
The union is likely to choose between Mr Hain - who has long courted the GMB - and
Mr Cruddas who is strongly backed by its influential London region.
Labour Party chair Hazel Blears, who is set to formally announce her candidacy tomorrow (February 24), is expected to win the endorsement of USDAW. The headquarters of the shopworkers' union is near Ms Blears' constituency and she has worked closely with it on issues including family friendly policies.
Last week, train drivers' union ASLEF announced it would back Mr Hain in the deputy leadership contest.
Although the endorsement of union executives and general secretaries is valuable, it is not critical. All 3.6 million political levy payers will be individually balloted. All votes cast will count towards the preferred candidate and then redistributed, if necessary, to second or third preferences.