Recovery?

wgm Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 06:51:39 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

The final three polls of 2007 showed Labour's ratings up by 3/4%:
YouGov L: 35% (+4) C: 40% (-3) LD: 15% (-1)
ComRes L: 30% (+3) C: 41% (+1) LD: 16% (-2)
ICM: L: 34% (+4) C: 39% (-2) LD: 18% (-1)

Whilst holiday season polls can't be relied on, there is no immediate boost in the final poll for the Lib Dems after Clegg's election. If nothing else, it would seem that absent of bad media headlines Labour's ratings are not staying at the sub 30% level and seem to be rising again.






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Recovery? | 5 comments (5 topical)

Re: Recovery? (#1)

by JoeRoberts on Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 07:57:32 PM GMT

Yes, I have noticed the same trend in the polls. I think the inflated Tory leads in the polls over the past two months were largely a short-term reaction to the wall-to-wall Labour-bashing in the media over donorgate and the missing discs, rather than a realignment in favour of the Tories.

I'm expecting the polls to continue to bounce up and down over the coming months. Clearly we live in interesting times, Election 2009/10 is wide open, and there is everything to play for.


Re: Recovery? (#2)

by NorthernMonkey on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:01:04 PM GMT

YouGov and ICM are generally the most trusted pollsters and if we're 5 points behind in those, then that's not a bad position to be in considering the events of the last few months.


If the Tories cannot even get big leads in the polls when they've supposedly got this great charasmatic leader compared to our 'dour' leader and when we're in the middle of a third-term in government, then they should be getting worried.


Re: Recovery? (#3)

by swatantra on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:05:19 AM GMT

I always put my trust in Gallup or Mori; the others,especially YouGov, are johny-come-lateley's.


[ Parent ]

Re: Recovery? (#4)

by NorthernMonkey on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:22:45 PM GMT

Ipsos-Mori always tend to exaggerate leads - same with ComRes. We barely hear anything from Gallup these days.


[ Parent ]

Re: Recovery? (#5)

by wgm on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:11:12 PM GMT

Gallup stopped UK polling many years ago.


[ Parent ]

Recovery? | 5 comments (5 topical)