IF ANYONE has ever doubted the crucial contribution that a single individual can make to the political process they need only look as far as Scotland and the Scottish National Party to have their doubts dissolved. Until the advent of Alex Salmond, the SNP often tottered on the brink of being a joke organisation.

With his emergence as its leader, it has become a formidable force, quite capable of destroying the United Kingdom.

The last time the SNP was a power in the land was during the 1976-79 Government of James Callaghan. Week after week, poor Jim staggered precariously from one House of Commons division to the next with an almost non-existent majority, depending for survival on Liberal, Ulster Unionist and SNP votes.

 Out of that state of near-permanent crisis, there emerged the first Labour plan for Scottish devolution, negotiated very largely by Michael Foot during his stint as the Leader of the Commons.

That plan ran into the buffers when Scotland failed to vote for it in sufficient numbers. Although a narrow overall majority voted “Yes”, the total did not reach the slightly larger threshold laid down by the Commons and it was voided. With the collapse of the scheme, the SNP’s Westminster MPs decided Labour had nothing more to offer them.

When faced with Margaret Thatcher’s vote of no confidence in the Government, they emulated the turkeys and voted triumphantly for Christmas – in other words, they voted to bring down Callaghan. In the ensuing general election, they were virtually wiped out. Moreover, the Thatcher Government that followed was adamantly and aggressively opposed to Scottish devolution.

In those days, the party was led by Donald Stewart, a nice old gentleman from the Western Isles. He was greatly loved, but his idea of leadership was to suck his pipe and look silently sage. Meanwhile, his team was living riotously. As my friend Alan Watkins has remarked, every night was Burns’ Night in the SNP whips’ office. I suspect that things are now rather different under Salmond.

Not that puritanism is the defining characteristic of his leadership. What distinguishes him from his various predecessors is hard-headed practicality combined with a formidable intellect.

The Celtic mists which once shrouded the SNP have finally dispersed in favour of formidable tactical and strategic political thinking which is probably unrivalled on the contemporary British political stage.

Just how clever Salmond really is has become even clearer following his surprise one-seat victory in this year’s elections for the Scottish Parliament.

He might easily have chosen to go for broke, formed his minority administration, introduced a swathe of measures which were certain to be blocked either by the Westminster Government or by the rules of devolution, including a referendum on independence. He could then have gone straight back to the electorate on a “They won’t let me do what you voted for” platform.

Indeed, that was what many Labour ministers and MPs expected him to do. But instead he chose the much more intelligent path of setting out to prove, by his party’s conduct, that the SNP was capable of delivering efficient government.

He had recognised that one of the factors preventing Scots from voting for independence was a fear that the SNP wasn’t capable of running the country. If he could show that his party really was up to it, that would be one major obstacle out of the way and the long-term goal would be that much nearer.

And that, as he made clear in his closing speech to the SNP’s Aviemore conference last weekend, is and always will be Salmond’s ultimate goal. It is essential to bear in mind that absolutely everything he does in the coming months and years – and that probably includes scratching his backside – is directed to achieving an independent Scotland, preferably under his premiership.

So it is worrying that David Cameron (yet another Scots name, by the way) and his young Tory tearaways seem to be preparing to play into Salmond’s hands with their dark warnings about a re-think on Scotland’s portion of Britain’s budget share-out and their plans for a solution to the arcane “West Lothian question”.

My guess is Salmond will say, in effect, that these problems are just two of the inevitable and unwelcome features of the union, and would be solved at a stroke by Scottish independence – especially if it is funded by North Sea oil.

All these are worrying developments if you care – as I do – about the union. Up to now, the policy of the Westminster Government has tended to be relatively passive, perhaps founded on the hope that it will all go away if we just hang around long enough. But it won’t – and certainly not while Salmond is in charge of events north of the border.

So I have a suggestion for Gordon Brown: since referendums are currently in the news, why doesn’t he seize the initiative and announce that his Government is in favour of holding a speedy referendum on Scottish independence and that he is urging his colleagues in the Scottish parliament to put down a motion aimed at setting one up as soon as possible? Then there could be a full debate on the issues which are currently being kept on the back burner.

The beauty of this is that it would pre-empt the SNP’s long term strategy. What’s more, all the signs are that the Prime Minister would win a vote if it were held now. Winning one on Salmond’s subtle timetable might be a lot harder.

From Tribune, 2 November 2007

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