Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required

Mike Ion Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 10:04:10 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

So the polls indicate a rise in Tory support (up between 4% - 6%). Is anyone really that surprised? Before we get too carried away let's just look back a few years.

Cast your minds back to October 2003 - those heady days when one Iain Duncan Smith was leader of the Tory party. A snap poll taken by YouGov straight after that conference showed Conservative support rising 5%(from 33% to 38%) and a few days later, ICM and MORI showed Conservative support rising by 3% and 4% respectively.

Last year, a Tory lead of 1% with ICM, and level-pegging with YouGov, prior to the Tory conference, had been converted into Tory leads of 10% and 7% respectively, after the conference.

The Tories are NOT going to win a general election unless they are consistently ahead in the polls by between 8% - 10%.

Cameron knows this and so does Brown - it is still very much game on.





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Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required | 8 comments (8 topical)

Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#1)

by rwendland on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 02:43:35 PM GMT

Even if the majority is reduced, I think there's a good case for going for an election now. There seems a substantial risk the global economy will tighten for the next few years, or that Bush will do something silly in Iran before he goes, neither of which will help prospects. And the press momentum now means not having an election will cause a hit. Just a shame the evenings will be dark in Nov - the idea of having a Saturday election seems a good one to me.

One disadvantage is that the LibDems will probably have a hard time, which will give the Tories and SNP an improvement to lift their spirits.  But that does reduce the risk of a hung parliament. 

Important to note that with the boundary changes the current 66 majority will be equivalent to 48 seats next time.


Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#4)

by Loz on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 11:10:51 PM GMT

Well firstly:

"or that Bush will do something silly in Iran before he goes, neither of which will help prospects"

Like what? Stop an islamo facist regime getting hold of nuclear weapons?

Anyway, as for the polls - we're still ahead.

These polls were taken only one day after the speech - and were available by the evening  - i.e. channel 4 news.

That tells me, 90% of those people that weree interviewed were those people home during the day. They were clearly rushed.

Seemed a bit strange if you ask me.

I'll wait for Sundays polls.

There is no way we have gone from at least an 8 point lead (and considering two polls had us at an 11% lead thats a fair compromise) to a tie just like that.

Brown was extremely ill advised by going to Iraq, which IMO, did us the most damage.

A few good announcement over the next few days, and he'll be ready (if he wants to) to call an election on Tuesday.


[ Parent ]

Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#5)

by rwendland on Sat Oct 06, 2007 at 02:51:58 PM GMT

> > "or that Bush will do something silly in Iran before he goes, neither of which will help prospects"

> Like what? Stop an islamo facist regime getting hold of nuclear weapons?

Putting aside the rights and wrongs of this, on which we obviously differ, lets consider the practical aspects.

The Shia in southern Iraq would obviously be immensely angered by an attack on Iran - extreme likelihood of serious attacks on British troops in Basra, probably with a number of British deaths.

What do we do?  Reinforce our troops for force-protection and/or use air attacks on the suspected mortar positions (possibly within Basra city) - or withdraw totally? We're forced to appear to be backing the U.S. attack by reinforcing or aggressive action, or look weak while our troops are heavily mortared. I don't think either would go down well with our electorate.

I do wonder if our recent retreat to the more defensible/extractable airfield is in part because our military leaders have a good idea of the probability of a U.S. attack. And perhaps the talk of a further 2000/3000 troop withdrawal in the spring is related to this - clear-out before it will look like a big retreat.

Maybe this is why a "senior White House foreign policy official" said "Operationally, British forces have performed poorly in Basra ... Maybe it's best that they leave. Now we will have a clear field in southern Iraq." Great thanks for backing the U.S. coalition.


[ Parent ]

Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#6)

by Loz on Sat Oct 06, 2007 at 06:00:32 PM GMT

"The Shia in southern Iraq would obviously be immensely angered by an attack on Iran - extreme likelihood of serious attacks on British troops in Basra, probably with a number of British deaths." Unlikely - as out troops have done plenty to piss these people off as it is - i.e. being there.

I also don't by into the anti iraqi sentiment that the first response of the average basra butcher, teacher, mother, father and whatever else will be to strap on an explosive and kill our guys.

More likely, the Iranians will fund even more attacks - but some things never change.

If we had had the same attitude historically, as the saying goes, we'd all be speaking German.

"Maybe this is why a "senior White House foreign policy official" said "Operationally, British forces have performed poorly in Basra ... Maybe it's best that they leave. Now we will have a clear field in southern Iraq." Great thanks for backing the U.S. coalition."

Well, he's nameless for a reason, I'd hazzard a guess he doesn't exist.

The top military officials over there, including the general say otherwise - and things have stabilized somewhat since we have departed.



[ Parent ]

Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#7)

by rwendland on Sat Oct 06, 2007 at 08:50:49 PM GMT

> Well, he's nameless for a reason, I'd hazzard a guess he doesn't exist.

I'm no fan of The Telegraph, but I doubt Toby Harnden, their US editor, makes up quotes for stories under his name. Toby Harnden blogs about this story over here.

 


[ Parent ]

Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#8)

by Loz on Sat Oct 06, 2007 at 11:46:28 PM GMT

Regardless of which - the unattriubuted quote has little value.

I take your point however.


[ Parent ]

Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#2)

by wgm on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 05:20:14 PM GMT

Will the narrowing of the polls make Labour supporters more inclined to vote? Polls are weighted by certainty to vote, scored 1-10. The Tories get more 10s, Labour get more 7s-9s. Labour has underperformed its poll rating at successive General Elections because Labour's vote does not turn out, often thinking we have won anyway so "why bother".


Re: Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required (#3)

by JoeRoberts on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 09:18:08 PM GMT

I'd agree about the polls. I don't tend to take much notice of opinion polls during the conference season. During Labour conference week we get wall-to-wall publicity and our poll rating shoots up; a week later the Tories get the same treatment and their rating goes up. I think the underlying baseline position is a Labour lead of 4-5%.

I don't want an election now - I don't think the party organisation is ready. Ed Balls and David Milliband may have been gearing up for an early election but I don't think Labour party members have been. We would presumably be hoping to gain some seats such as those we narrowly lost last time - many of these constituencies don't even have candidates.

Plus October and November is hardly an ideal time of year for canvassing. Howling winds, slippery leaves everywhere, people not wanting to open the door after dark....


Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required | 8 comments (8 topical)