Conservatives narrow the gap in three polls

wgm Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 09:58:06 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Three post Tory conference polls tonight:

YouGov C 36% L 40% LD 13
Populus C 36% L 39% LD 15
ICM       C 38% L 38% LD 16

Undoubtedly boosted by policy announcements and a generally well-received speech, the Tories have not overtaken Labour, and the Lib Dems are squeezed even more. Should return to a six or seven point lead for Labour in a few days, and we have yet to see what polling on the leaders shows. Crucially Labour's private polling in the marginals will probably decide whether Gordon calls and election next week or not.





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Conservatives narrow the gap in three polls | 3 comments (3 topical)

Re: Conservatives narrow the gap in three polls (#1)

by champagnesocialist on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 04:50:46 PM GMT

As Comrade Kelly said on Question Time last night the polls bounce around all the time so I dont think we can read anything particularly into one day's figures. I guess Gord will be looking at the trend and the polls published at the weekend


Re: Conservatives narrow the gap in three polls (#2)

by champagnesocialist on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 04:53:16 PM GMT

Does anyone know what impact the Lib Dems' poor showing will have? I know they always go up during the course of a campaign and are very effective at targetting their efforts but would it deprive mor Labour or Tories if they do well?

And what about the loony fringe - people like UKIP etc? Surely it is to Labour's advantage  if they do well?


Re: Conservatives narrow the gap in three polls (#3)

by wgm on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 05:15:16 PM GMT

Populus are saying for every 3 Lib Dems who go to Labour, four go to the Tories. However Lib Dem voters are different in different areas - some are left leaning in urban areas, others are moderate centre-right in more rural areas and will return to the Tories if they appear less "nasty".
"Others" are polling 10% - they are usually within the 12 to 8% band, and this encompasses SNP, Plaid, UKIP, Greens etc - samples are too small to draw conclusions unless they are specific to Scotland etc.


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Conservatives narrow the gap in three polls | 3 comments (3 topical)