Is the United Kingdom breaking up?

NorthernMonkey Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:20:01 AM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook



As many of you will know, there's been a lot of talk about the future of the United Kingdom this weekend with much talk about us breaking up.

What do you think will happen? Will we go our own separate ways or stay together? And even if we do split up, could it actually be beneficial to all of us?




This weekend, the UK has been attacked from all sides. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has been calling for Scottish independence, Plaid Cymru (coalition partners in the Welsh Government) are pushing for a referendum on a Welsh Parliament and the Tories seem to be pushing their unworkable "English Grand Committee" idea which will effectively break up the UK as it will mean no Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish person could ever realistically be Prime Minister again.

Not to mention the fact that poll after poll seems to show more people on both sides of the border seem to want an amicable divorce. And in Sunday's Observer Leading article, they are asking if 'Breaking up might not be so hard to do'.

Now, I'm a unionist and I support the UK staying together, but recently I've been thinking more and more about this and I'm wondering whether breaking up might not be so bad after all. I've also been thinking about the possible consequences for all of us if we split.

Imagine the following scenario which could well happen:

  • If Scotland breaks away, I can't see it keeping the English Queen as their Head of State. Surely 'Prime Minister Salmond' would push for Scotland to become a Republic.
  • Same would apply to Wales. If Scotland left, then surely it wouldn't be too long before Wales leaves too, and again I couldn't see them keeping the English Queen so a Welsh Republic could be on the cards.
  • As for Northern Ireland, well that might be more difficult. They could either re-unite with the Republic of Ireland or they could possibly stay as a dependent territory of England, similar in status to the Isle of Man with home rule but England running their defence and foreign policies.
  • If the other countries of the UK were to become Republics then England would feel great pressure to do likewise in order to not look like a backwards nation. Remember the current Queen is very popular, but any future monarch may not be so. Now I'm not a Republican, but when Charles becomes King, I may look more favourably to the Republican cause. A wave of Republicanism sweeping the Commonwealth could well start in the near future with Australia if Kevid Rudd becomes Prime Minister next month. This 'domino-effect' could soon arrive at England's shores, especially when Charles takes over.
  • Not only would Scotland want to demonstrate its independence by ditching the English Monarchy, but it would also adopt a new currency. I can't see an independent Scotland still using the English Pound with interest rates set by the Bank of England. They'd probably join the euro (same applies to Wales). Again, this would put more pressure on England to join the euro as well, especially as many English folk would end up using the euro on their travels across the Scottish and Welsh borders and find it more convenient to ditch the pound.
  • Closer European integration wouldn't just apply to currency. I could well envisage 'Prime Minister Salmond' wanting to ditch what he would call 'English imperial measurements' and would fully convert Scotland to metric like the Republic of Ireland has done. The same would apply with Wales. Now if English drivers had to keep switching to kilometres everytime they crossed the Scottish or Welsh borders then that would put more pressure on England to change too.
There are lots of large 'ifs' and 'buts' there, but it's hardly unthinkable is it?

The point I'm getting at is that it seems the Tories are the ones who most want to ditch the Union as they think they'll find it easier to win in England alone. But they could unleash a can of worms which would evolve into their worst nightmare.

When the UK splits up (if it does), the ball will start rolling and constitutional change would happen at an incredibly fast rate.

  • The House of Lords would not be able to continue and would be replaced with an elected English Senate.
  • England, at the time of independence, would be the most centralised country in Western Europe and so we'd have to see far greater devolution to the 'provinces' and less control and dominance from London (as a Northern Monkey, this would please me greatly!)
  • And effectively, I could well envisage us becoming four separate Republics - England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland - all fully integrated EU nations in the euro.
  • A new President of England living at Buckingham Palace to replace King Charles perhaps?!
  • And who knows, a newly independent Republic of England which has been forced to ditch its traditional ways may well see a flurry of progressive policies like free prescription charges to match our Scottish and Welsh counterparts?
  • And since an independent England may well lose its veto at the UN Security Council, we may find it worthless keeping our nuclear weapons too?
Sounds interesting and intriguing (but I must stress that I am not in favour of some of these ideas)! Of course, all this is fantasy at the moment and only intended as a bit of fun, but I could well see this happening if things keep moving the way they are. It feels like the 'winds of change' are sweeping over Britain.

All this would be a Conservative's worst nightmare, but could be a dream come true to many on the left I'm sure. So my message to the Tories is be careful what you wish for, because once you open that can of worms, you may regret what you've unleashed!




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Is the United Kingdom breaking up? | 30 comments (30 topical)

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#1)

by orzr on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 08:30:46 AM GMT

That's all very well but the "Westlothian Question" hasn't gone away. Labour and Tory MPs alike don't like it when Scottish MPs are whipped to push something through for England and Wales that they have decided not to do in Scotland. If there is a better solution than the "English Grand Committee", let's hear it.


Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#5)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:57:17 PM GMT

I would prefer a separate English Parliament to an unworkable 'Grand Committee'.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#7)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:53:09 PM GMT

What, at more expense to the poor taxpayer and yet another set of elected Members of the English Parliament, the MEnP's? We've already got an English Parliament, if only the Scots, Welsh and Irish MP's use their brains and don't turn up and vote on purely English Legislation. Rifkinds idea of a Grand Committee sounds more like a Grand Inquisition to me and should be binned.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#13)

by NorthernMonkey on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 07:29:30 PM GMT

We barely have any elections as it is and you can't put a price on democracy. If we can manage to find millions of pounds to invade Iraq, then I'm sure we can find a fraction of that money to pay for English Parliament members.

However, I'm not saying that I support an English Parliament, but it certainly is a much better proposal than Rifkind's 'Grand Committee' nonsense.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#14)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 07:57:35 PM GMT

We do need more elected representatives but at a more local level ie Parish Councils The French have 'communes' consisting of about 1500 electors, bringing democracy down to the grass roots; this encourages more engagement and people actually know who their local politicians are; they might even decide to stand for office themselves. Anyway, whatever happened to 'localism', it seems to have hit the buffers of late. And we need more local referenda, on really local issues, eg deciding on bus routes and price of tickets, and eg, the level of precepts and council tax. What we don't want is more gravy trains for profesional politicians to scramble on.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#15)

by NorthernMonkey on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 12:52:38 AM GMT

Not a huge fan of referenda where barely anybody will care. I can't see there being a huge turnout for a referendum on bus routes. Similarly, I don't want to see more Councillors (or similar) - people already are apathetic about local council elections and probably don't know or care about who their local Councillors are.

What we need is something in between Westminster and local level - perhaps city mayors or something like that?


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#17)

by wonkotsane on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 03:32:26 PM GMT

You're assuming an English Parliament wouldn't involve a reduction in the number of British MPs.  Why would this be the case?  We don't need 650 MPs now, why on earth would we need that many if 75% of their work is taken away from them?

It's fear for their jobs that stops MPs from supporting equal rights for England, not a sense of faux-Britishness.  An English Parliament <i>will</i> come to English and British MPs elected in England should remember that when they ask the electorate to give them a job representing England, English nationalists will be reminding that same electorate exactly <i>what</i> their MP did to end apartheid in the first place and the answer to that, in most cases, will be absolutely nothing.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#2)

by TonyH on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:57:15 AM GMT

Here's the most important question for people to put to themselves - "What country do you believe you're from?"

If your first instinct is to say England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, well then, the UK has already broken up.

If your first instinct is to say the UK or Britain, well then that what you should argue for and preserve.

My point is that whichever it is - there are economic advantages and disadvantages but they should be considered seperately from what you think your country is.

For example - I'd love to see a United Ireland and I know it would come with costs, economic repercussions, constitutional questions and social problems - I don't care, it'd be worth it. To me, Ireland should be the whole island.

I hope that if the UK does break up, the fallout will be manageable and there are no really damaging consequences - although I'm sure there must be (UK territories, defense, UK treaty obligations and renegotiations etc). 

Would an English republic, elected upper house, countries on this island engaged in Europe and the Euro be worth it?


Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#3)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 11:25:30 AM GMT

The doom and gloom merchants are at work again. There is no way that the UK is going to break up. Scotland may well seek greater independence but it can do so in a federal structure of a Greater Britain. If it did by some fluke of the imagination declare UDI it would still remain part of the Greater Commonwealth and not go the way of Eire. Its a small country and very dependant on economic, trade and defence ties with GB; it cannot go it alone.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#6)

by repub on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 02:43:15 PM GMT

What relevance is Scotland's size when Ireland is surviving very well as in independent republic...?


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#8)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:56:39 PM GMT

There's no answer to that, except...its the luck of the Irish, again. But will it last? I doubt it,. Small countries will always be at the mercy of their more powerful neighbours. At the moment the Irish are being tolerated.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#9)

by TonyH on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 05:33:10 PM GMT

An interesting choice of words - Ireland is being "tolerated"?

Can you elaborate?

Learning about Irish history always made me wonder about this "Luck of the Irish" concept.

Several foreign invasions, a banned religon, a famine, a halving of the population over 20 years, a massive diaspora and a sectarian war (not to mention habitual concession of last minute goals in football qualifying games) doesn't sound too bloody lucky to me Swatantra.

Seriously though - Scotland can succeed as a small nation - there is an important role for small nations in Europe and in the world. Tolerated isn't a word I'd use for a European nation in the 21st Century.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#10)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 06:08:42 PM GMT

Oh dear, are we going to have a succession of nation states like Montenegro, Moldovia and Kosovo. Mind you Lichtenstein, Andorra and Monte Carlo produce some of the most wonderfully, colourful postage stamps; quite a collectors item.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#11)

by TonyH on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 06:32:44 PM GMT

I was thinking more along the lines of Denmark, Finland, Belgium and Portugal (comparative size and populations) - all of whom are doing very nicely thank you very much and there certainly isn't a question about their survival.

By the by - life seems pretty good in Monte Carlo and I stand with brothers and sisters from small countries all over the world when I correct you: It's called Moldova!

We hate it when people get the name of our little countries wrong ;-)


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#12)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 07:06:36 PM GMT

We can agree on a united Ireland TonyHannon, and one day it will come. Partition never solved a thing, but creates even more problems; I know, I'm from the Indian subcontinent.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#18)

by wonkotsane on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 03:35:23 PM GMT

I'm English, from England.  Britain and British have as much relevance to me as French or German.  Britain and Britishness in 1997 when Scotland was given home rule and England was subjected to the dictatorship of the unelected Scottish Raj.

I'll never feel British again, bring on the revolution.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#4)

by red flagger on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:11:47 PM GMT

I think that if a break-up were to occur, we would (and should) end up with a federal Britain, which would be in the best interests of us all; there should be a common currency, army and foreign policy, but the rest should be left up to the individual nations to decide.


Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#16)

by homerule on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 03:26:54 PM GMT

The UK is its death throes and whether or not Gordon Brown admits it, it was his party that knifed it in the back.  Labour is now reaping what it sowed.
This will finish Labour off in England for generations to come and deservedly so.


Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#19)

by swatantra on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 04:50:09 PM GMT

Rubbish!


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#20)

by NorthernMonkey on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 05:19:41 PM GMT

No, it was the Conservatives who 'knifed' the union in the back (and they're still doing so today).

If the Tories hadn't have treated Scotland and Wales with such contempt during their 18 years of mis-rule then those two countries wouldn't have been so desperate to distance themselves from London.

Scots wanted their own Parliament so they'd never see a Tory government enforcing their absurd policies on to them again, and who could blame them?

When Labour gave Scotland the chance to have a Parliament it was acting in a democratic fashion which the Tories opposed. May I remind you that over 70% of Scots who voted said 'yes' to a Parliament. But you'd have been quite happy to still keep everything centralised at Whitehall despite that?

The same level of support is not yet clear for an English Parliament and so I can't see it being created any time soon.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#21)

by wonkotsane on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 09:02:39 PM GMT

Scotland asked for the Poll Tax, their main gripe.  That aside, Scotland had (and still has) a Grand Committee of MPs elected in Scotland to fight for its interests.

"18 years of mis-rule" is also no excuse for treating England like ther personal feifdom of the Scottish Raj.  Why should my generation pay for the actions of another generation?

Do you even know the results of the last three polls conducted by the Campaign for an English Parliament?  66%, 67% and 66%.  This is with a nationalist movement that only really took off 10 years ago when Labour started apartheid.  Scotland's nationalist movement was decades old in 1997 and they only managed 70%.

There's an easy way to find out if there is support for an English Parliament - hold a referendum.  Why won't Labour hold a referendum?


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#22)

by NorthernMonkey on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 11:24:43 PM GMT

Why do you specifically say Labour? The Tories or the LibDems haven't promised any referendum on an English Parliament either.

And you don't think 70% is a high amount? That's a comprehensive 'yes' in my book. I agree with you that the majority of English people want more devolution - I'm still doubtful that English people would specifically vote for a Parliament in a referendum, especially if it meant more politicians and a new building which may bring extra costs.

Not to mention that an English Parliament would still leave a country of 50million people far too centralised - there needs to be devolution at a much smaller level.

Also not to mention the potential furore over where the Parliament would be situated. If it is to be in London, you'd get a lot of Northerners turning against it. If it's going to be in York or Manchester, you'd get a lot of Southerners voting against it.

....And a lot of people might be uncomfortable with an English parliament if they think it will lead to a permanent Tory majority.

All these hurdles would need to be cleared and I'm doubtful that they will be. Saying that, a Parliament is still more feasible than Rifkind's 'back of an envelope' plans.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#23)

by SunilPrasannan on Thu Nov 08, 2007 at 10:15:32 AM GMT

The thing about Ulster is, if Scotland were to become separate, would the Unionist community profess loyalty to Holyrood instead of Westminster, given a significant proportion of Protestants are of Ulster Scots heritage?


Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#24)

by swatantra on Thu Nov 08, 2007 at 10:53:37 AM GMT

If the Scots become independent, and if NI joins with  Eire to form a united Ireland, will the anti-Pope protestants all repatriate back to Scotland? 


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#25)

by NorthernMonkey on Thu Nov 08, 2007 at 05:00:16 PM GMT

Hmm, tough questions. That's why I think Northern Ireland will be a far more complicated matter than Scotland or Wales if we do split up.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#26)

by NorthernMonkey on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 02:15:45 PM GMT

Just to let you know that this post of mine actually got published in The Scotsman newspaper!


I was happily browsing the Scotsman website when I saw a link saying "Northern Monkey advocates English home rule"! (which wasn't technically true but anyway...)


To my surprise when I clicked on the link, it came up with this:




Unfortunately you have to pay to read it all but it says it was published in The Scotsman newspaper on the 31st October 2007.


I'm quite proud of myself for that! Shows the national journalists really do read these blogs!


Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#27)

by jkitleft on Sun Dec 16, 2007 at 12:27:52 AM GMT

All this talk of Scots controlling our policy since devolution; they already had different systems to ours, except they were controlled by the UK parliament. Perhaps if devolution to the North East, North West, East Midlands, West Midlands, East Anglia, South West, South East; Yorkshire and the Humber, and further extended to London and Wales, we may need to make sure any decision taken by the Parliament would effect all constituent parts of the UK, and override any decisions taken by a devolved assembly


Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#28)

by swatantra on Sun Dec 16, 2007 at 04:16:21 PM GMT

what we need is a federal structure, with regional goverment. what have cornwall or northumberland in common. nothing. the german model is one we should look at.


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#29)

by jkitleft on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 06:29:04 PM GMT

what do you mean about cornwall and northumberland


[ Parent ]

Re: Is the United Kingdom breaking up? (#30)

by swatantra on Fri Dec 21, 2007 at 11:18:15 AM GMT

cornwall has its own culture, heritage and language, quite foreign to northumberland. they are distinct regions, with very different issues. they should have greater control over their affairs and budgets.


[ Parent ]

Is the United Kingdom breaking up? | 30 comments (30 topical)