US Presidential Politics: Inevitability

Will Parbury thinks the race for President of the United States is the most open in decades.

Inevitability is a great weapon in politics, just ask Gordon Brown. Hillary Clinton is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination and if you believed some sources had the nomination all sown up already. Now Hillary is a candidate of immense strengths and would make an excellent president even if she were not following a truly appalling predecessor but I would argue that this is one of the most open presidential elections ever. While the nomination process is somewhat frontloaded compared with previous electoral cycles there is still a formidable political assault course of fundraising and primaries to overcome before anyone gets there hands a nomination from one of the two major parties.

The Republican field is probably the wider of the two. With neither the President or Vice President in the running they are left with a string of second draw candidates. In my humble opinion Rudy is the best candidate they have but he has some major issues that could derail his campaign and his reputation from New York isn’t the beacon of shining light that he would like it to be. After two terms of Bush there is a perception that they are playing for second place come the presidential election. Well the last two term Republican president was replaced by another Republican president and they retain a formidable electoral machine. The election will also be in November 2008 so it is still in political time a very long way off.

The Democratic field can in effect be narrowed down to Clinton, Obama and Edwards. Perhaps the first two have the greater chance of gaining the nomination but it is still all to play for. Take for instance the newsweek poll on Iowa, a key primary state ordered the candidates respectively:

Obama 28%

Clinton 24%

Edwards 22%

Full article on http://parburypolitica.wordpress.com





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Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#1)

When Obama announced his candidacy in February, he trailed Clinton 48%-23% nationally. After nearly eight months, six debates and the expenditure of millions of dollars, the numbers are nearly the same: 45%-24%.  

Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#2)

I think that is to do with her percieved front runner status which hasn't been tested in the primaries yet. If she loses in Iowa or New Hampshire it's going to get a lot more interesting.

Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#3)

Jag, if you read most "serious" political pundits, such as Stuart Rothenberg (Rothenberg Political Report on RollCall.com) they will tell you to pay no attention to the National polls, as candidates are currently only campaigning in three States: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Therefore voters in the other States are not yet engaged in the race, and answer pollsters questions on which candidate has the higher name recognition; in the Democrats case this is obviously Hillary.

The fact that Obama is within touching distance of Hillary in Iowa means that her nomination is far from inevitable; she is expected to trounce all opponents in Iowa - anything less and she will appear vulnerable and if anyone (be it Obama or Edwards) finish either first or a close second will take huge momentum into the following races, with New Hampshire the same week as Iowa, and Michigan caucuses (where Obama should perform well) seven days after Iowa.

Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#5)

This would be the same Stuart Rothenberg who used the exact same wording when he had decided in late 2003 that Howard Dean was going to be the Democratic nomineee...

You're right about the NH and MI caucuses though, but don't forget that Florida's still thinking about pushing for an earlier primary, which would cause either Arkansas or New Mexico to bring its primary forward.  

Additionally, most of the Zogby polls (terrible internals, which means they consistently produce outlying polls - but that's for another comment thread) have highlighted voters perceptions are heavily reliant on a candidate's momentum.

Also, Michigan is totally not going for Obama (at least it hasn't just yet) - check out ARG's early September poll here.

Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#4)

Hillary's even beating Obama now in terms of fundraising based on the latest figures. I've got no doubt whatsoever that by Februrary 6th, she'll be the Democratic nomination.

Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#6)

So it looks like a Hillary and Obama ticket; one giant step for women and ethnic minorities. I hope America will have the courage to seize the moment.

Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#7)

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Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#8)


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Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#9)


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Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#10)

Say whatever you like about Rudy Giuliani as a candidate, he is evolving into a figure with nearly as powerful an ability to polarize opinion as Hillary Clinton has been. Here's two links to provide immensely contrasting points of view on Hizzonner.

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Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#11)

I Hope that after election USA Foreign politics will not be  such aggressive

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Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#12)

What is the chance of Obama becoming the first citizen of US?

Re: US Presidential Politics: Inevitability (#13)