Already the web is beginning to be clogged with comments and analyses that predict awesome changes in Cuba once that Castro is no longer there. Most of these seem to be predicated on the assumption that it is his mere presence that is holding back an inevitable transition from a single-party political system and centrally-planned socialist economy to a liberal free-market model. But there is no real reason why this should happen at all, and, as a matter of fact many reasons to suppose that Cuba might carry on just the same as it has throughout the 50 years of Castro's rule.

The first is that Castro's incapacity since July has allowed for his succession to take place already, and while there have been a few gentle tweaks on the tiller by his brother Raul, as far as overall policy is concerned, nothing at all has changed.

There is no reason why those who are now running the country will not carry on in exactly the same way. In fact, the team now in charge is exactly the same team that was in charge this time last year - minus Fidel.

The second reason is that the Cuban economy is doing really rather well, by Cuba's own measure it grew 12.5 per cent last year. By a more conventional measure 11.5 per cent - easily the fastest in the region. Unemployment is down to 1.9 per cent, construction is booming and the budget for next year sees more expenditure on health, education and welfare. Furthermore, with oil-rich Venezuela as a main ally and China in the wings providing soft loans, there is every reason to suppose that prosperity is around the corner for the average Cuban. It does not take rocket science to realise that there will be little demand for market reforms if people's needs are increasingly met with things the way they are.

The third reason is, as ever, to be found in Washington. The Bush administration has set its face against talking to Raul Castro, in the vain hope that this will induce the population to demand political change. But Bush's policy is so wildly wrong-headed that no Cuban on the island will ever buy it. For example, a recent Gallup poll in Cuba found a 78 and 79 per cent satisfaction rating respectively for the island's socialised health and education services, yet the US demands that both of these be privatised!

Hubris prevents Washington from seeing its folly. Cuban nationalism has been forged in contrast to the North American `other.' While Washington tries to dictate to Cuba, the Cubans will do the opposite. Until and unless a wiser head takes over the White House, the Cuban question will remain a Gordian knot, and Havana will not change - with or without Fidel.

Dr Stephen Wilkinson is the Assistant Director of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba. His book: Detective Fiction in Cuban Society and Culture is published by Peter Lang.

www.cubastudies.org