New YouGov poll

steppenwolff Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 05:23:10 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Conservatives - 40% (+2)
Labour - 32% (+1)
LibDem - 17% (-1)

Baxter predicts:

CON  338 (+124)
LAB  268 (-79)
LIB  13 (-47)






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New YouGov poll | 15 comments (15 topical)

Re: New YouGov poll (#1)

by Andrea on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 06:01:36 PM GMT

There's also a Yougov poll of Labour party members.
The full poll is here:
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/Labfinal060907.pdf

Two questions were about leadership/deputy leadership elections.

If these were the candidates for the leadership of the Labour Party when Mr Blair steps down, which would you vote for?
Gordon Brown 57
John Reid 10
Alan Johnson 8
David Miliband 7
John McDonnell 5
Don't know 12

If these were the candidates for the deputy leadership of the Labour Party when Mr Blair steps down, which would you vote for?
Hilary Benn 27
Alan Johnson 18
David Miliband 17
Harriet Harman 10
Hazel Blears 7
Don't know 22


Re: New YouGov poll (#10)

by doctordunc on Sun Sep 10, 2006 at 10:42:55 PM GMT


This is interesting.  To a certain extent it's partly a measure of who is best known at this point in time, and a leadership contest would change that (in so far as, at the moment Gordon Brown gets a front page for scratching his nose while some of his actual and potential opponents find it very hard to get any coverage).  Any potential candidates who are senior cabinet ministers and quite high profile ought to feel disheartened by the those polls, but I don't think either John McDonnell nor David Miliband (possibly not even Alan Johnson) should lost any sleep over it.  I suspect all three of them would be found considerably more charming and enticing than Brown once a proper contest comes under way.

Of course, another interesting poll would be of Labour members on a whole series of policies that are likely to come to the fore in this election.


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Re: New YouGov poll (#11)

by Andrea on Sun Sep 10, 2006 at 11:38:10 PM GMT

yes, at this stage, the "recognition" factor still probably affects the result.
The deputy leadership poll is interesting though. I suppose Benn, Johnson and Miliband are more or less at the same level in terms of being known and Benn has an early advantage in this poll.


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Re: New YouGov poll (#12)

by doctordunc on Sun Sep 10, 2006 at 11:40:52 PM GMT

Yes Benn does seem to be popular among activists and cuts across the left/right divide (for example, if that was the list of candidates when it comes I would vote for him, even though I am a Campaign Group supporting, John McDonnell voter! If Lynne Jones or Alan Simpson stood then I'm afraid Hilary would have to get my second preference...)


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Re: New YouGov poll (#2)

by tigerbay on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 06:49:18 PM GMT

Not sure about the Liberal seat projection.  There's going to be anti-Labour tactical voting at the next election, plus please like Cardiff Central which went LibDem in 05 - they haven't forgiven Labour yet...


Re: New YouGov poll (#3)

by Andrea on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 07:24:21 PM GMT

yes, I agree. Uniform swing isn't usually right to predict Libdem number of seats. They're more unpredictable and thanks to targetting and incumbency they'll manage to hold seats that wouldn't get with an uniform swing.


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Re: New YouGov poll (#4)

by TimSwift on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 07:28:04 PM GMT

I'm not sure that Baxter projections tells us anything much useful once the swing gets above 3% or so.

Firstly, it's clear that the swing in Lib Dem seats will not be uniform; I think they will lose seats to the Tories at the next Election, and even if they gain some from Labour will face net losses, but they will not go down to anything like 13;

Secondly, I've not yet been able to find published details of the YouGov poll, but it seems to be a feature of most recent polls that there have been significant regional variations in swing, with much bigger swings in London than in the North, and Baxter takes no account of this.

On a different point, the polls of members are almost meaningless at this time. As an example, on  7th September 2005 a YouGov poll in the Telegraph gave David Davis 27%, Clarke 33%, and Cameron 17%. And we all know what happened next! (details here)


Re: New YouGov poll (#5)

by Andrea on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 07:53:50 PM GMT

"I'm not sure that Baxter projections tells us anything much useful once the swing gets above 3% or so."

and the "notial" results used for Baxter model are produced basing on the assumption that all wards within a constituency have voted in the same way and we all know it's not the case in real elections.

"Secondly, I've not yet been able to find published details of the YouGov poll, but it seems to be a feature of most recent polls that there have been significant regional variations in swing, with much bigger swings in London than in the North, and Baxter takes no account of this."

yes, polls tend to show a huge swing in London and in the South, while Labour vote seems to hold better in the North (Yorkshire in particular).
In a model like Baxter, the regional swings can cancel each other in the prediction of the total number of seats (ex the 8% majority in the North is held is compensated by the 13% in London is lost), but it's not always the case (especially if the marginals are concentrated in some particular areas)


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Re: New YouGov poll (#6)

by mjwhel on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 04:16:40 AM GMT

Baxter's predictions are pretty poor with many flaws. Anthony Wells is far better on the new boundaries and I understand is bringing out a 3rd edition soon.

In relation to the YouGov Poll given the chaos of the past week it is a pretty good showing, given what has taken place we may have been look at a tory 10% lead.


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Re: New YouGov poll (#7)

by Andrea on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 04:44:57 AM GMT

"Baxter's predictions are pretty poor with many flaws. Anthony Wells is far better on the new boundaries and I understand is bringing out a 3rd edition soon."

yes, I agree that Wells figures are more reliable. I look forward to his third edition.


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Re: New YouGov poll (#8)

by nickparrott on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 07:08:07 AM GMT

The polls are surprisingly good, but we took a real pasting in the only two actual votes that took place on Thursday - by-elections in Warrington and Somerset. We got thoroughly trounced in two previously Labour seats, though looking on the bright side, the Tory vote didn't get much of a bounce.

You've got to feel seriously sorry for those candidates. As one who lost by less than a dozen votes in May, following the Black Wednesday shenanigans, I feel their pain...


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Re: New YouGov poll (#9)

by Andrea on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 01:19:11 PM GMT

"You've got to feel seriously sorry for those candidates. "

Especially for the poor Somerset woman who lost just by 7 votes. Without the last few days, she would have probobaly hold the seat.


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Re: New YouGov poll (#13)

by 603Squadron on Mon Sep 11, 2006 at 10:39:22 PM GMT

There's another here: Yougov Sunday Times Scotland Poll

1. Constituency Vote (excl don't know, would not vote)

Con 14
Lab 30
Lib Dem 18
SNP 29
Other 10

2. Regional Vote (excl don't knows, would not vote)

Con 14
Lab 27
Lib Dem 15
SNP 29
Other 15

3. If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote - in favour of Scotland being an independent country or against Scotland becoming an independent country?

In favour 44
Against 42
Don't know 15

4. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Scottish Parliament should be given more powers?

Strongly agree 36
Tend to agree 28
Neither agree nor disagree 15
Tend to disagree 10
Strongly disagree 9
No opinion 3

5. Which political leader do you regard as more competent: Alex Salmond, the SNP leader or Jack McConnell, the Scottish Labour leader?

Alex Salmond 40
Jack McConnell 30
Don't know 30

6. Which of the two would make the better first minister?

Alex Salmond 39
Jack McConnell 30
Don't know 31

7. Which, if any, of the following qualities do you associate with Jack McConnell?

Stands up for Scotland 30
Conceited 27
Weak 26
Intelligent 23
Likeable 21
In touch with people's concerns 16
Honest 12
Has the best ideas for improving people's lives 11
Would trust him to look after my wallet 10
None of these 11
Don't know 18

8. Which, if any, of the following qualities do you associate with Alex Salmond?

Stands up for Scotland 57
Intelligent 36
Likeable 34
In touch with people's concerns 26
Honest 23
Has the best ideas for improving people's lives 19
Would trust him to look after my wallet 18
Conceited 17
Weak 5
None of these 7
Don't know 19


Re: New YouGov poll (#14)

by swatantra on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 09:51:55 PM GMT

Never trust a You Gov poll. Its only filled in by geeks who sit at commputers all day. Not truely representative.


Re: New YouGov poll (#15)

by Glass House on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 02:57:18 PM GMT

Actually, YougGov has proven to be better than a lot of the older polling firms. If weighted properly, there's no problem with the on-line thing.


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New YouGov poll | 15 comments (15 topical)