We should not sleepwalk into a Brown Government

There is a lot of talk of `renewal' from within The Labour Party and among the left-leaning media.  With a genuine threat emerging in the shape of David Cameron's ideologically devoid Conservative Party, the staid and tired Labour government appears very old hat - bogged down by scandal, a controversial foreign policy, and the fatigue of office.  


Many people have identified a new leader as the catalyst for change and renewal.  Regicide is considered the way to salvation, and for many of those advocates, Gordon Brown is very much the saviour.  Only by installing Brown into Number 10 can Cameron be defeated, they argue.  But Labour followers should not allow Browites to force the debate into the direction of an inevitable Brown Premiership.  Leaders should never be anointed by momentum or a coup d'état, they can only be chosen by democratic methods - a vote; one that offers real choice.  And so it is that Labour should have an internal debate as to where it is, where it's heading, and of course, how it plans to get there?

Such has been the impact of Blairism on the Labour Party, manifested in a drastic collapse of party membership; it's inconceivable that those who seek to install their man, should be allowed to lead the party blindly into a new era.  Brown is unproven at engaging with the wider electorate and has only managed one portfolio - the treasury.  Compare Brown with John Reid, who has enjoyed a far broader basket of responsibilities.  Wouldn't Reid be better equipped to handle the Prime Ministers more general brief than number-cruncher Brown?  

More concerning are the reports that Brown is both an authoritarian and a micromanager.  The last thing the marginalised Labour backbench needs is further `disconnect' with the cabinet.  You may be able to micromanage the treasury, but one man cannot shoulder the whole nation alone.  Brown will need to trust, and gain the respect of, politicians with whom in the past his department has clashed.  Can he write off the Blairites within the cabinet?  Has he talent available within his ranks to dismiss those he associates with the Court of Tony?  Will the Blairites continue to snipe at the lumbering Scot once he's in Number Ten?  And would the party not be better served by a complete change of direction? These are the questions Labour members must ask.

I believe that Brown's time has past. The economy, so long the fulcrum of his challenge, is beginning to cool.  Cheap Chinese capital is drying up and consumer debt levels have begun to impinge on spending.  Property is also cooling down, meaning people will have limited access to secured loans.  We are slowly approaching a recession.

Where will Brown's credentials lie if the economy is flagging?  

Brown has also left himself open to criticism by `disappearing' when the going gets tough.  As Blair struggled to hold his cabinet together after one scandal after another, the chancellor was nowhere to be seen.  Real leaders-in-waiting come forward and get their hands dirty.  `Cometh the hour, cometh the man.'  This absence has been red meat to Tory commentators, such as Simon Heffer, who are licking their lips at the thought of a digging their claws into the Presbyterian Scot.

If Brown is to be the next leader of The Labour Party he must step up to the mantle and take the crown.  Blair, it is increasingly obvious, will not hand it to Gordon on a plate.  The hatred between the TB-GBies is too great and runs too deep, Blair is determined to have the last laugh and make the handover as bloody as possible.  Blair may not be able to prevent a Brown-led Labour Party, but he'll make sure it's not easy.

And so the debate must begin.  No one would argue that Labour mustn't continue to reform, after all it is a party of progressiveness.  But should the reform be solely Blairite?  Should it embrace the market solution for every single conundrum?  No, a truly progressive government would look at each issue individually.  It would be brave, look to best practices elsewhere in Europe and beyond, and would shun ideology wherever it crippled progress.  

A new Labour government must also undo the grave mistakes of Blair.  It must distance itself from Bush's White House.  It must rediscover Robin Cook's vision of an ethical foreign policy.  And it must recommit to civil liberties and reengage with dislocated Muslim communities.  Rafts of reform, from PFI to Tax Credits, must be reviewed and evaluated; an honest review where reforms that don't make the grade are scrapped.

In a ground breaking move equal to that of making the Bank of England independent, the next Labour administration should create a larger and fully independent National Audit Office with sweeping new powers and a focus on every facet of government.  After years of spin and ministerial shortcomings, the Party would be sending out a message of honesty and transparency.  Statistics will be independently collated and put into context, and not queered through the prism of party politics.  The people of Britain deserve no less.  A group of likeminded MP's could demand that the new more powerful National Audit Office looks into areas of public concern, likewise a reformed and fully elected House of Lords could also activate an enquiry.  Parliament and the Cabinet would also be compelled to act on its recommendations.  The New National Audit Office: powerful, independent, and non-partisan.

It is said that Brown is indeed nesting on a raft of new policy ideas; if this is true then maybe he does deserve a crack at the top job.  But he must show now that he can fight a tough fight and shoulder some of the scandals that have rocked the cabinet.  The Machiavellian snipping must also stop.  If Brown is not in a position to call for Blair to go then either he doesn't have the stomach for the premiership, or the time is not right. Either way the current war of attrition is tearing the fragile Parliamentary Labour Party apart.  

So the question is:  Where is the Labour Party, where does it want to be, and how does it get there?  With or without Gordon at the helm.


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Re: Brown Government (#1)

I am sorry to pick up on only one point from a very lengthy post, but I am increasingly frustrated by the assumption without argument that an 'ethical foreign policy' was represented by Robin Cook's line over Iraq and that the interventionist line taken by Tony Blair is in some ways 'unethical'.

Could someone therefore please advise me what would the 'ethical foreign policy' response to Saddam Hussein have been? Stepping aside from the use of specific arguments over WMD to justify military action, what was the ethical alternative? Would it have been to continue indefinitely with sanctions which were claimed to have caused great loss of life in Iraq? To continue enforcing the no-fly zones, or to allow Hussein to reimpose direct rule over the Kurdish areas with unpredicatable consequences?

Similarly, what is the answer to the criticism that an 'ethical foreign policy', wtih dependence on the United Nations, is precisely what is allowing the continued conflict within Sudan / Darfur and the knock on humanitarian impact on Chad?

I am assuming that those who argue for an ethical foreign policy which is different to the current policy also assume that this is something different from the 'neo realism' of the Major government, which for example resisted intervention in Bosnia. So what does it look like?

Re: Brown Government (#2)

All Cook wanted was a legitimate UN Mandate.

Re: We should not sleepwalk into a Brown Governmen (#3)

Gordon was never the popular choice when he stood aside for Tony Blair. Regardless of whether he will make the best Prime Minister he fears that his support, whilst large, is also fragile.

His fear is that his claim to succession is completely dependent on the presence of the Prime Minister and their unwritten agreement. Once Tony goes so does the agreement of his succession and so does any advantage he has amongst the MPs.

The first of the problems that Gordon has is this. If he HAS been sitting on good policy ideas why hasn't he implemented them if he HASN'T had any good policy ideas then he shouldn't be Prime Minister.

Another of his problems. Is that his most successful move has been to hand over political control to professional [economists]. This act implies he is not able to take advice from a committee, but must rely on them to take the final decision. Plus the committee only decide on one issue, so the policy can't really be translated to other areas.

Another problem is that his policy of tax credits  has been perceived to be over complex and open to fraud. It gives the impression that he can't filter out policies, that whilst well meaning are  impractical.

Another problem is that Gordon has introduced so many [stealth] taxes into the system that he will be a target for criticism.  

Another of his problems is that "real" unemployment and inflation amongst marginal voters is actually alot higher than the base figure suggests. Several commentators have put marginal voters inflation at between 6-8% [due to fuel and council tax] and unemployment at between 3-4 million [including 15% on incapacity benefit in the NE compared with 5% in the SE].  

Another of his problems is that the influx of foreign workers [designed to keep wage inflation under control] is actually introducing wage deflation amongst marginal voters. I read the average wage of a builder [i.e. Sun Reader = marginal voter] had fallen from £120 to £60 per day in Southampton.

Another problem is the Scottish problem. Because he was intrumental in introducing the Scottish Parliament he has been perceived as introducing the West Lothian problem. Because the Scots are less prosperous than the marginal [voting] areas and their receive more benefits he has been perceived as benefiting the Scots at the expense of the marginal [voting] areas - even though the funding hasn't changed.

Finally, Gordon is not the most charismatic leader. He relies on the impression of intelligence, but he has not published any thesis for anybody to judge him by. Even if he is as intelligent as he claims you need strong social skills to be the CEO of UK Plc.

Bottom-line is that whilst Gordon may have a head start within the Labour Pary he doesn't appear to have any advantages to the voters than any other potential leader. In fact his perceived status as an automatic choice may work strongly against him because the public may say that he didn't win through on ability.

Best of luck Gordon.

Re: We should not sleepwalk (#4)

On one particular point-

You say Blair won't back Brown.  According to Michael White of the Guardian, he has repeatedly said in private conversation that he will do so.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/michael_white/2006/09/post_333.html#comment-199331

The idea that Tony Blair wants a bloody handover, as you suggest, seems implausible. His backing of another candidate, or even a refusal to back Brown, would be divisive.  It would not be good for the Labour Party.  Divided parties lose elections.  He won't want to go down in history as having gutted the Labour Party.