Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma

chrisdoidge Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 04:15:02 AM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Alan Johnson faces a tough decision: run for the Labour leadership and probably lose to Gordon Brown, or run for the Deputy leadership and face a tough battle with big names like Jack Straw. But the real dilemma is: if not Johnson versus Brown, then who else?



According to The Guardian today, Alan Johnson is under pressure from Blairites in the Labour Party (those that remain!) to run for the leadership. But a 'close friend' says he'd rather be Deputy to someone else, like Gordon Brown.

You can see why when you examine the figures from the Electoral Reform Society, which puts John McDonnell ahead of Brown and Johnson in the minds of over 200 trade unionists at the TUC Conference. Johnson has a mountain to climb with the unions, a group both key to the election of the next leader - and deputy - but also wary of Johnson who in many ways should be a natural ally.

With Jack Straw expected to declare his intention to run for the Deputy Leadership at the weekend, Alan Johnson's position is precarious. He would be in real danger of losing both elections (like Margaret Beckett) and facing a disappointing future career in the Cabinet (or even outside).

But the real question for Alan Johnson is: if he isn't the quasi-Blairite to run for the leadership, who will be? Perhaps Charles Clarke. Maybe John Reid. But his head is probably telling him that neither would stand much of a chance against Brown.

With the pace of the leadership election quickening by the day (I'd be surprised if someone doesn't declare something at the weekend), Johnson is going to have to make decisions quickly or he'll be left behind with too much ground to make up.

Chris Doidge's Blog


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Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma | 17 comments (17 topical)

Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#1)

by turnleft on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 01:47:53 PM GMT

If Gordon wins we lose - it's a simple as that.

The economy is entering the tail end of the down turn which hurts the left politically. If you look at the real figures (used historically and globally) they are not very good the media have a good case for slating Gordon's record (i.e. inflation, productivity, taxes, pensions and unemployment).

The only reason the media are holding back is that they will sell more copies of their papers once Gordon becomes Prime Minister.

Alan has more credibility with the center voters and won't have an economic millstone around his neck. Most of the media will support him.

This election is not about voting for a Labour leader it's about voting for a national leader - that means seeing the candidates from a the political centre.

Why should Alan want the Deputies Job - what is that? John is always getting roasted in the press for not doing anything. Far better that Alan puts a good show in then he and his supporters can press for top jobs if he does lose.


Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#2)

by otware on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 02:00:10 PM GMT

I think Johnson should stand for both. He has dithered so much that he will look weak, so we will do badly in both elections and take away some support from Brown to hopefully make Jon Cruddas and John McDonnell look better! If he looses badly it will signal the end of Blairism...


Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#3)

by otware on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 02:00:56 PM GMT

This should read "he will do badly..."

Sorry.


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#4)

by crossland2 on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 03:20:33 PM GMT

There is plenty of evidence to show that the economy is picking up !

Check out Snowflake5 for plenty of recent articles on how the economy is doing/expected to do next year


Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#5)

by mwell on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 03:53:04 PM GMT

Just as pertinently, I don't think that a decline in the economy would help any leader of the Party! I can't imagine the press giving Johnson a free pass and saying "not his fault, he was just Education / Trade & Industry Secretary / whatever"...!


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#6)

by turnleft on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 04:28:46 PM GMT

Yes I agree we are coming out of a downturn.

An economic downturn is like a hole - easy to fall down but harder to climb out.

As you come out of a down turn you have 3 big problems, politically speaking ...

(1) In any downturn investment (manufacturing, investment banking) gets hits first. You always see jobs go here first. As you come out of a recession retail (shops and banks) get hit. You can see that now (and expect more) with financial and retail job cuts. This will hit workers in Middle-England.  

(2) Getting out of a down turn takes longer than you think (remember Normal Lamont being heckled about "where are the green shoots" - despite (to his credit) a long run of economic growth after that. The small company sector is smaller than under Thatcher, and small companies generally lead the way ouf a recession. Adding to this young skilled migrants this will hit workers in Middle-England.

(3) You have alot more inflationary pressures coming out of recession. People have not had salary rises for years, rising employment will push up pay demands and this will force interest rates up - as we are seeing. Expect a 1% rise by this time next year. This will hit mortgages in Middle-England.

The one thing Gordon has (accidentally) done to allieviate this problem is to give above inflation pay rises during the downturn to public sector workers, so they can't really complain about a bit of squeeze for the next 2-3 years.

So all in all coming out of a down turn is not as good as it sounds, politicially speaking ... leaving the opposition to claim the credit [a'la Gordon].


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#7)

by Glass House on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 05:00:23 PM GMT

You can see why when you examine the figures from the Electoral Reform Society, which puts John McDonnell ahead of Brown and Johnson in the minds of over 200 trade unionists at the TUC Conference. Johnson has a mountain to climb with the unions, a group both key to the election of the next leader - and deputy - but also wary of Johnson who in many ways should be a natural ally.

You've got to be kidding. How are people who attend the TUC in any way representative of the sort of people who will be voting in the Labout Leadership election?

Of course Trade Unionist at the TUC conference are crazy left-wingers! But they are only a tiny percentage of the (mostly much more moderate) individual political levy payers.


Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#11)

by nickparrott on Sat Sep 16, 2006 at 12:29:50 AM GMT

While I don't think that ERS "poll" tells us terribly much, I think it's a fairly extreme remark to say that TUC Congress delegates are "crazy left-wingers".


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#12)

by johninnit on Sat Sep 16, 2006 at 01:44:24 AM GMT

Think you're both right, sort of! Admittedly the 'crazy' and 'left winger' indices for Congress goers may be both marginally higher than the norm for the population (as at Labour Conference or any activist gathering), but listening to the positions of the various union leaders I think those who want to declare for McDonnell are maybe doing it instinctively and early (as he'll be the only choice for them, whatever happens). The majority (with the obvious exception of Amicus) are very diplomatically refusing to say at the moment, waiting to see which of several much closer candidates is there to choose from, and what concessions they can win.
The poll only got 200 out of 700 without any sample control, which means the Brown and Johnson votes could be well out, being on such a small sample each. So yes, I don't think it tells us a lot either.
Of course, here I am making a large assumption that union members will take the blindest bit of notice in what their leaders recommend!


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#8)

by Henry79 on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 07:38:27 PM GMT

I'm not sure that a sane soft left candidate wouldn't be the best bet to stop Brown, somebody Blairites could vote for because he was vaguely committed to modernisation and yet could get anti Iraq war votes- the best candidate would in my opinion have been Robin Cook but because of his death then why not John Denham. He has been sane in criticising Blair so could attract Blairites but has been leftwing enough to get some 'left' votes. McDonnel is too leftwing to get any votes from the likes of Reid and Milburne, Reid and Milburne too rightwing to win in the country. Denham with some media help could be the man to do it.


Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#9)

by turnleft on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 09:45:32 PM GMT

If Alan is going to stand for either post he'd better get hold of an IT bod to update his website - the "Latest News" section on his website is dated "May 5th 2005".

He also has a "New Labour" logo on his site - what happened to "Real Labour".

At least it shows he is getting on with his job and isn't obsessed with media spin.

http://www.alanjohnson.org/


Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#10)

by Glass House on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 11:54:11 PM GMT

What an incredibly silly comment.


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#13)

by turnleft on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 02:55:14 PM GMT

What's "silly" about that?


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#15)

by Glass House on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 03:16:06 PM GMT

Because the leadership election hasn't kicked off yet and because that's his constituency site, not a leadership campaign site.


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#14)

by turnleft on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 02:56:34 PM GMT

Alan Johnson still most popular.

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/images/Labourleadership.jpg

In 1 year's time we will look back and regret not choosing him as leader.


Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#16)

by bornin84 on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 06:03:32 PM GMT

He's only popular because nobody knows anything about him!


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Re: Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma (#17)

by doctordunc on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 03:16:42 AM GMT

It doesn't help that the only candidate to have actually declared isn't included on the graph.


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Alan Johnson's Big Dilemma | 17 comments (17 topical)