When Party Leaders refuse to go...

Tony Blair's announcement that he still has no plans to announce a stepping-down date provides the party with a real problem- one that could result in electoral suicide.

Past examples show us that, when it is a party that removes its leader, rather than the leader going by themselves, it can prove to be fatal. Thatcher may have been unpopular in 1990, but by stabbing her in the back, the Tory Party caused itself great damage in the eyes of the public, leading to a narrow win in 1992 and great losses ever since. The Lib Dems have become much less popular ever since Charles Kennedy was forcibly removed. If push comes to shove with Blair, and that's the way it's starting to look, Labour could suffer a very heavy defeat at the next general election.

It all comes down to party unity. If Blair were to announce at the upcoming conference that he would leave number 10 next June, we could have a smooth leadership election, get back to our winning ways and hopefully stick in power for another term. If, however, Blair is forced out, things become much more bitter, MPs will start mud slinging, the party will divide intro 'Blairite' and 'Brownite' camps, and history will have another example of a party that has torn itself apart.

By staying now at a time when we are very unpopular, and it is mostly down to him and his policies, Tony Blair is causing enormous damage to his own party. The best thing he could do is to go as quickly as possible, and make way for the next generation of talent. If he doesn't, then the chances of a win in 2009-10 seem very, very unlikely.


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Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#1)

Forcably removing Blair, while still being more damaging that him stepping down, would not cause the problems that Thatcher or Kennedy's removals caused for the Tories and Lib Dems.

Thatcher and Kennedy were almost universally loved by party members - Blair clearly isn't. He still has fans (I include myself among those), but even they see that the writing is on the wall.

Also Thatcher had a rump of hugely loyal MPs on the backbenches who really didn't want to see her go. There's no similar rump in the PLP - there may be some who would like to see him stay a little longer, but there's no "go on and on" faction.

I don't see any kind of division emerging from getting rid of Blair.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#2)

Maybe Labour members and activists need to write letters to Number 10 explaining that we think he needs to go. Anyone up for this?

I think he genuinely believes it's just "the usual suspects" plus Gordon Brown's supporters in the PLP who want him to leave. I'm not sure he quite realises that ordinary party members, moderate and New Labour, want an end to this saga too. I think we need to persuade him to resign, and perhaps it's better for the persuasion to come from us volunteers with no personal axe to grind rather than from the PLP. (If people are going to write, don't be vitriolic, it will just put his back up and allow him to dismiss the letter as from "the usual suspects"). I wish he had more sense, this is something out of a Greek tragedy, what a sad end to such a career.

I confess I was a little alarmed at his performance on the news last night. He's scaring the voters, we really need to get him off the TV screens.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#3)

I don't think writing to the PM directly would do any good. Far better to write to a Local Labour MP and ask them to put pressure on Blair.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#4)

I might do both. I'm not sure he takes much notice of his backbenchers, and thought maybe the membership en masse could penetrate the fog surrounding the PM.

This is the saddest thing, isn't? The PM making a chump of himself, when he could have simply announced his departure date last Dec, when he was still on a high after winning an election and winning the Olympics.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#5)

I suppose we could get CLPs to pass resolutions, or send in contemporary motions to conference. One or two would be easily ignored, but if done in large numbers it might have some effect.

I've never been a huge fan of Blair, but the story in today's papers about targetting anti-social behaviour 'pre-birth' is so daft you'd think it came from a satirist  rather than the PM.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#20)

There is this contemporary resolution from STLP. it boils down to - give us a timetable in your leader's speech on Tuesday or the NEC will instigate a leadership debate on Wednesday.

The Leadership model resolution is:
Conference notes the call by the First Minister of the Labour Welsh Assembly Government on 10 August 2006 for clarity over the leadership of the Labour British government well before the Welsh, Scottish and local government elections in May 2007.

Conference notes with concern mounting electoral losses and public controversy about the direction of both domestic and foreign policy.

Moreover, Conference notes growing public concern and interest in a new constitutional settlement to ensure that future British Prime Ministers and their governments are held accountable to Parliament and the electorate.

Conference commends the achievements of its Party Leader since his election in 1994, and subsequently as Prime Minister through Labour's three successive British General election victories in 1997, 2001 and 2005.

Conference notes the Prime Minister's previous statement that he will not fight the next General Election as Party Leader or Prime Minister. Conference now believes that the next Labour Prime Minister needs as much time as possible in office before the next General Election, if Labour is to secure a fourth term.

Conference, therefore, calls on the NEC to use its powers under Clause VIII 3 (h)* to table a resolution at Conference for debate and ballot on Wednesday 27 September under Rule 4B. 2d (ii) to enable delegates to decide on a card vote whether or not there should be a Leadership contest before the 2007 Annual Conference.

The URL is here: http://www.savethelabourparty.org/060821_Model_Resolution_Leadership.doc

with a covering letter explaining the need for public support BEFORE conference if it is to have any chance of success - avoiding charges of division, or "union baron's" calling the shots or disgruntled Brownites gruntling: it must be party members who lead the move, precisely to avoid the pitfalls that the Tories and (to a lesser extent) the Lieberal-Democrats fell into after their leadership ejections and elections.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#19)

No - I do not want him to go.  He is popular within my group - Gordon Brown is not.  Tony Blair led the party to a general election victory just over a year ago.  He only declared that he intended to resign as leader following his minor heart complaint.  The right wing press, disgruntled sacked ministers, the loony left want him to go. The disloyalty being demonstrated by many MPs is causing the problem. Many of them are jostling for position to impress a new leader.  Self interest of course is paramount. Voters hate disloyalty and the party will be punished at the next election.   It would be wonderful if MPs made no comment to the press about the leadership of the party. I will blame these disloyal MPs when David Cameron enters No10.  I most certainly will not blame Tony Blair who has clearly indicated that he will ensure a smooth transition of leadership in time for the next election.  

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#8)

In some ways removing him might actually increase the idea of party unity in the general public. At the moment people see the desperate Blairites trying to hang on (e.g the Byers Brigade), Brownites plotting and scheming and the left up in arms. If Blair was removed the Brownite and hard left factions would be united which would certainly make the impression of party unity, if only temporarily. Also, the Blairites would surely fall in line behind the Brownites if only to try and get themselves jobs in Brown's government.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#6)

Patrick Wintour writes in today's Guardian that Blair is planning to go next summer but doesn't want to announce it yet as he'll lose authority.

Wintour is probably well sourced, but of course that doesn't necessarily mean the story is true.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#7)

And the sources are 'Blair's friends'

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#9)

I think there is a problem with all of this focus on an individual when what is really hurting us politically at the moment are a raft of policies. If we want a fourth term its time to ditch neoliberal economics and neocon foreign policy.

Not everyone reading this may support John McDonnell's leadership bid (I do) but at least John is trying to get us to focus on policies, by actually proposing some ideas.

Blair must go of course, but we need to change policies more than personalities.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#10)

Some of you guys who keep spouting off about the evils of New Labour policy really should find out what what the word 'neoliberalism' means before trying to impress people by using it. People might take you a bit more seriously if you had any idea what you were talking about.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#12)

'Some of you guys who keep spouting off about the evils of New Labour policy really should find out what what the word 'neoliberalism' means before trying to impress people by using it. People might take you a bit more seriously if you had any idea what you were talking about.'

It might help if you could identify who 'people' are, that are meant to be impressed.

What do you see as 'neo-liberalism'??

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#22)

It's not about what you see as 'neo-liberalism' its about knowing what neo-liberalism is. Anyone who talks about New Labour having a neo-liberal economic policy is showing that they have no idea what neoliberalism is.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#14)

The foreign policy might be wrong, but the economic policy of this givt is axactly right. And it's the economics that has delivered the last three election victories. We must never forget that.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#15)

The economic policy is good. Relative to the Tories, the economy is fantastic. But in the greater shceme of things it isn;t as rosy as people would like to think. OK nobody is anticipating another Wall Street Crash (or the British equivalent) - but things aren't exactly fantastically outstanding.

I think that Gordon Brown has been a safe pair of hands. He has not been very exciting and I think he should have done more.

One of the main problems I have with Gordon Brown is that he is so boring.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#16)

Apologies for the typos in my previous post.

Re Brown and boring - economies don't respond well to shocks at all. It rattles confidence, and means that people don't spend and businesses don't hire.

You only need to compare Poland to Hungary - in Poland after the fall of communism, they went for shock therapy and applied extreme neo-liberal policies in one go, and their economy hasn't recovered confidence nearly decade later and growth is slower than in the other eastern european countries and unemployment is 16%. In Hungary they went for the gradual method, and are doing much better for it.

If you want an example nearer home, only look at the Lawson budgets, where his need to "go down in history" was greater than his concern not to shock the economy by pouring too much money into it - and look what happened.

Boring is the absolute ideal as far as running economies goes. Gordon Brown's caution might also serve us well in foreign policy - people are exhausted by Blair's lack of caution, and want a rest.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#11)

But...why does Blair want to hang on? Is it is just personal vanity? If it is, then it is a strange way of serving it when going quickly some time ago could allowed him to leave with relatively good press and secured the lasting reputation of Teflon Tony. Is it because he just thinks he does a better job than any alternative PM and is hanging on in case someone with the right personal and communcation skills to take on Cameron becomes apparent (and he knows this is not going to be Brown)? Or, is it right that he takes as much of the flak as possible until the right time for a new leader to take over, present themselves as the embodiment of renewal and serve a short term as PM before winning a general election. Brown as leader for more than a year before an election probably guarantees being thrown out of power.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#13)

If we presume assume that Tony still has his marbles then the only rational explanation [I can think of]  is that he is putting his Country before his Party in some way. We are slipping dreadfully in the polls so the logic goes that any sensible Prime Minister would step down and if he didn't then he is clearly  bonkers. That position of course assumes that the Party is his number one priority. However, when you take the job as Prime Minister you vow to put your Country before your Party.

So how is Tony putting his Country before his Party. The obvious reason is that he has offered his support to Pres. Bush over as an ally. The timing fits because any attach on Iran would take place over the winter and end in May when the summer gets too hot [and Tony says he will resign.

I think Tony belives that he must follow through on Afganistan and Iraq and finish the job in the Middle East. Tony doesn't trust Gordon to do this because of his absence in the Commons. I believe Tony's aids are trying to goad him into supporting a war in Iran by now calling him a chicken

I'm not sure whether I admire him more or less for putting the Country before the Party. Either way I now don't think he is going to budge until May.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#17)

Hilary Armstrong says talking about the future leadership is "tittle tattle".

When I read the comments on this blog it the comments are made by mature adults discussig a very important issue - unlike some of the Tory blogs.

Were Tony, Peter and Gordon "tittle tattling" when they had the vision of New Labour?

If Hilary says we are "tittle tattling" now then she must say they were "tittle tattling" then. Which she would never do.

So we must conclude she is pressing for censorship and repression of any thing not New Labour inside the Party. She won't be getting my vote in future.
 

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#18)

Well we already know how undemocratically slanted and biased the New Labour machine is. Look how they were using Young Labour to campaign during the NEC elections!!!

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#21)

There is this contemporary resolution from STLP. it boils down to: give us a timetable in your leader's speech on Tuesday or the NEC will instigate a leadership debate on Wednesday.

The Leadership model resolution is:

Conference notes the call by the First Minister of the Labour Welsh Assembly Government on 10 August 2006 for clarity over the leadership of the Labour British government well before the Welsh, Scottish and local government elections in May 2007.

Conference notes with concern mounting electoral losses and public controversy about the direction of both domestic and foreign policy.

Moreover, Conference notes growing public concern and interest in a new constitutional settlement to ensure that future British Prime Ministers and their governments are held accountable to Parliament and the electorate.

Conference commends the achievements of its Party Leader since his election in 1994, and subsequently as Prime Minister through Labour's three successive British General election victories in 1997, 2001 and 2005.

Conference notes the Prime Minister's previous statement that he will not fight the next General Election as Party Leader or Prime Minister. Conference now believes that the next Labour Prime Minister needs as much time as possible in office before the next General Election, if Labour is to secure a fourth term.

Conference, therefore, calls on the NEC to use its powers under Clause VIII 3 (h)* to table a resolution at Conference for debate and ballot on Wednesday 27 September under Rule 4B. 2d (ii) to enable delegates to decide on a card vote whether or not there should be a Leadership contest before the 2007 Annual Conference.

<u>The URL is here</u>: http://www.savethelabourparty.org/060821_Model_Resolution_Leadership.doc

with a covering letter explaining the need for public support BEFORE conference if it is to have any chance of success - avoiding charges of division, or "union baron's" calling the shots or disgruntled Brownites gruntling: it must be party members who lead the move, precisely to avoid the pitfalls that the Tories and (to a lesser extent) the Lieberal-Democrats fell into after their leadership ejections and elections.

Apologies for posting this twice.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#23)

I've been in a few informal groups in and around London over the past week and the general impression I'm getting is very depressing. The consensus is that New Labour is going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to gain any traction against their downward momentum.

The most optimistic thing I've gained is that people are "confused" about Gordon Brown and the future direction of the Party. They say either Gordon is New Labour OR he is Not. If he's New labour then it's more of the same - if he's not then he doesn't have a mandate and should call a snap election.

The biggest issue is the perceived slide of the quality of life - due to "real inflation" and globalisation.  The common theme seems to be "I'm going to be worse and worse off and I don't see that changing." and I don't think that's a thing that can be changed before a snap election.

In conclusion, my best hope is that Gordon publically takes on the New Labour Mantle (to stop a snap election) and makes some major policy changes whilst giving the impression that things are the same.  

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#24)

Brown will be New Labour, but he won't be exactly the same. I think people forget how much style is influenced by people at the top.

If you think about the place where you work and how things change subtly even when the CEO is replaced by a groomed successor, who to all intents and purposes is following roughly the same path, you will get an idea of what will happen.

The next ten years will be different from the last ten years, simply because events will be different and the personalities involved will be different. The only person who doesn't understand this seems to be Blair, who seems to be trying to aim for the govt to stay exactly the same as if he was still leading it, even when he's gone. I particularly hope that Brown brings forth some of the New Labour talent that is currently sitting on the back-benches while the cohort who got elected in 1997 is still hogging all the ministerial jobs. The 2001 and 2005 group deserve a chance.

Your point about people worrying about globalisation is interesting. There does seem to be doom and gloom about. People keep saying that the economy is slowing, when in fact it is speeding up. They keep expecting tax-rises when none are in the pipeline (and treasury receipts are up, so no need). I think the Tories have done a very good job spreading mis-information and we've slipped up in getting across the good news about the economy.

Re: When Party Leaders refuse to go... (#25)

What an 'own goal'!  I am simply a supporter of Labour principles - not a party member or  activist; a member of 'the general public' as always mentioned.  I registered here today because I wanted to express my utter disbelief at what has happened this past week and try to convey to those of you who have direct access to these warring factions - especially those who wrote, signed and leaked 'the letter'; those who publicly instigate the downfall of their own party leader the PM; those who in the eyes of much of the public have started a chain of events which is likely to put the Labour party back some 32yrs.

I do not advocate sensorship within political parties but for them to destroy the party and government in this way is Untenable.  I revelled in the demise of Thatcher and the Conservatives whose premise was to promote the interests of the rich and powerful.  This past week is reminiscent of the downfall of Thatcher and her cohorts  which I revelled in!  Those who resigned with such media fanfair this week forget that the so called New Labour with Tony Blair at the helm were the only answer to the depresseing state of this country at that time.... A traditional leftie could not reassure the middle classes who overwhelmingly benefited from the Thatcher years nor the working class who believed the hype of future prosperity and turned their back on Labour and benefitted through buying their council houses - at the detriment of their own children whose only avenue of having their own home now is to rent from the private sector filling the pockets of Thatcher's children. In many cases they have little prospect of owning their own home. New Labour at that time was the only answer.  

I actually do not support the PM in his foreign policies by any means specifically his relationship with Bush and the decisions made with regard to the Middle east.  However this weeks events are distasteful to me and many others.  

Watching the likes of the Sunday Programme this morning... the conservatives had not even bothered to send representatives in as is usually the norm to harangue Blair, Brown or even government policy in general.  They have stayed away because you are destroying yourselves.  You are likening yoursleves to the conservative party at  the lead up to and during their demise which means there is nothing that distinguishes you from them... you are all out for power regardless of what harm you do to individuals within your party (those who you previously - to the public at least - supported all those years ago so that you could obtain power) and the party in general.  You forget that despite the glorious (New Labour) policies, the lack of morals - personal and political, the lack of caring shown to those suffering economically and socially in this country by the conservatives was their downfall - the reason you are in power now.

It is likely time for Blair to go - but in a controlled and timely fashion giving Brown or other successor a chance to show the general public what he is all about.  He needs to show what his political passions are; his political resolve and his desire to continue to resolve the various social problems faced by this country.  He is still, in the eyes of the public, an excellent financial/economic wizzard but its not enough to get the country behind him as a leader who needs to be much more than a good accountant.  It is still required that the leader of a governement needs to show that he unswervingly believes in his policies and believes in the ability of his country to overcome some continuing social problems. At the same time he must recognise that in this era human nature, peoples wants and needs and aspiriations dictate that they want to succeed; they want to own their own home, have a salary which enables them to acquire the basics in life.  These basics are very different to 40 years ago so to you to the left of the party - Its not yet your time.