We need a different challenger to Brown

I'm very clear that Blair should go as soon as possible and that the Labour Party needs to reconnect with its grassroots to win another election. But I can't see how John McDonnell is the right person to do that.

It will have to do so in a very careful way if it wants to avoid losing public support. A mix of careful language on public services and continuing some policies that the left have traditionally had problems with, such as the whole ASBO thing, are probably necessary.

However, as I've said in comments on other posts, I don't think John McDonnell's campaign's the way to do that.

I belive that pitching one of the most left-wing MPs in Parliament against Brown will make it easy for him to defeat his opponent, which will then allow him to claim a mandate for PFI, the war in Iraq, expanded nuclear energy and all the other things he's likely to push for.

Let's not forget what happened when Benn and Heffer challenged for the leadership in 1988. They were humiliated and Kinnock used the victory as a mandate to push the party to the right.

That's why I believe that the campaign group should put its weight behind a more centre-left candidate, who will carry more MPs, more unions and more CLP members. That would allow them to make a decent showing against Brown and would force him onto centre left territory and he would have to make committments there.


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Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#1)

And who is this centre-left candidate that the campaign group is going to back?

...

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#2)

I've come up with a few names on other threads. I think it would best be a former minister. John Denham springs to mind.
I've also argued elsewhere that, in the right circumstances Peter Hain could be an effective challenge.

While they're not going to support the hard left down the line, it would be a credible challenge to Brown from the left, rather than a flight of fantasy.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#3)

Yes I understand this, but John McDonnell is not going to pull out of the race to support John Denham or Peter Hain, is he?

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#4)

Well, I fear that he might not unless he's forced to by lack of nominations.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#5)

He needs 12.5% of the PLP, which is currently 44 MPs.

The SCG currently lists 24 members, which means that John McDonnell is looking for another twenty nominees even if the SCG unanimously back him. You can make up your own mind about that:

http://www.scgn.org.uk/

Certainly, if there was an alternative left option I can see some of those names going for it.

On the other side of equation there are the likes of Clare Short and Glenda Jackson who are not in the Campaign Group but still likely to back McDonnell over Brown. I can only think of a handful though, certainly not twenty or more.

One question which might alter the dynamics though - will MPs be allowed to nominate more than one candidate?

It sounds crazy, but that happened in the Lib Dem leadership race and there may be some MPs on the left who will nominate any leftish challenger to Brown to maximise the chances of any of them being nominated.

In the absence of that option though, it's entirely conceivable that a softer left candidacy would pull the rug from under McDonnell's feet; or even that they both fall slightly short, if 70-80 MPs put their heads above the parapet but split evenly between the two challengers.

Presumably, the John4Leader campaign will at some point unveil some parliamentary supporters, at which stage it may become clearer what the situation is.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#6)


All the names mentioned are going to be hopeful of a cabinet position under Brown (as there will be an assumption that, at least in the first instance, Brown will need a more balanced Cabinet than Blair) - I think it very unlikely that they would be prevailed upon to stand.  In the case of Peter Hain, for example, a lot of left-wingers would probably not vote for him even if there wasn't another left-wing option (I would certainly fit into that category; rather a reasonably pragmatic right-winger than a slippery quisling - not that such a right-winger has been mentioned yet, Brown being an exceptionally dogmatic right-winger!)

If you want to 'pull the rug from under McDonnell's feet' then this would be the way to go, if you could find someone: it would end any talk of reconnecting with the grassroots and bring back 'business as usual' with a 'talk left walk right' fixer, selling the labour movement down the river with a lot of labourist background noise.  Fine, if that's what you want. It isn't what I want.  And it isn't what hundreds of activists at the LRC wanted.  And it isn't want hundreds of activists who didn't make it to London but have been getting involved in this campaign want.  

Have you objections to John other than your belief that he'll lose?

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#7)

I am intriuged by the difference between what you call a dogmatic right-winger such as Brown and a reasonably pragmatic right-winger. Who would this be?

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#8)

Don't you know? All right wingers in the Labour party are dogmatic, whereas all the left wingers are enlightened pragmatists, basing all their views on empirical evidence.

;)

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#9)

Objections to McDonnell:

He will lose - he will lose very very badly.
In losing very very badly he will discredit the ideas he is standing on, some of which actually have mass appeal in the Labour Party.
He won't be able to build the left opposition machinery that he's hoping to build because it's clear that he's going to lose.
Even if he didn't lose, he would be unable to unite the party.
The media would massacre him and even on a moderate centre-left platform, he would easily be portrayed as more of an extremist than IDS as leader of the Tory Party.

If the campaign group had, instead of looking to promote its own candidate, gone to some of those centre-left potential candidates and said that they would get their MPs to support him or her for a centre-left platform, they could have really made a difference. They haven't thought and it's a missed oportunity.

It's going to go about as far as Ken Livingstone's bid for the leadership in 1994 (remember that?). Speaking of whom, he's not supporting John either.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#10)

All the supposed "soft left" challengers are no more credible than John McDonnell - and those in Parliament and the unions who won't back John probably won't risk offending Gordon by backing anyone else either.

We must change the parliamentary arithmetic by changing the facts on the ground - by renewing the Labour Party with a campaign for socialism.

John Denham btw was in the Grauniad yesterday opposing the sensible demand for an amnesty for so-called "illegal" migrants, which is the national policy of both UNISON and the TGWU.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#15)


No apparently not.  Amazing when you consider all the things Ken said about Gordon in 1997.  At that time, as far as the Livingstone-ite Social Economic Bulletin was concerned, Gordon was the font of all evil, and Blair a decent enough chap led astray by the neo-Liberal nutter next door!!

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#14)


I can't think of many at the moment to be honest.  John Smith, or perhaps even Jim Callaghan would probably come under that bracket.  I would also have probably included Roy Hattersley as such a person, although people probably think of him as left-wing now!!  There must be some pragmatists on the right!  (I'm not advocating pragmatism per se, by the way - in response to JM - just if you have to have a right-winger a pragmatic one is marginally preferable!)  There are quite a few examples in labour history where leaders from the right (not just national party leaders but labour movement leaders at various levels) have either chosen or felt the need to be more inclusive and pragmatic than leaders who appeared to emerge from the left but then shoved their flag firmly in the land of the right.  Their 'origins' were seen to be an alternative to compromise of any sort - Kinnock is an example, and I would expect Hain to be very similar if he ever emerged as a candidate.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#11)

"If you want to 'pull the rug from under McDonnell's feet'"

I was speculating rather than advocating.

If I might offer a word of advice, treating anyone who is unpersuaded as if they hostile will only become self-fulfilling - I'm sure that we floating voters have searching questions of all the candidates and will judge them on the answers!

As it happens I do definitely want a contest, a serious contest with a proper debate, and my post was more about how to ensure we get that than about any individual.

"Have you objections to John other than your belief that he'll lose?"

I was really just replying to a previous post with some more background information and some general thoughts about possible developments.

Believing someone will lose is not necessarily a reason not to support them of course, but it might be in some circumstances.

I think the question here was posed by Graham, not me - if a left candidate stands and loses by miles, and a right candidate then uses that as an endorsement, then is that a step forward?

I think that's a reasonable question to pose, though I accept that elsewhere you've argued there is time and space to organise a campaign and we should wait and see to assess its success. Would that broadly be your answer?

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#12)

I agree with the premise of the orginal question, and am intending to write something lengthier about this shortly.  From my admittedly limited knowledge of Labour MPs, it is my view that McDonnell will not get the 51 signatures he needs, so I think the question about whether he would pull out in favour of Hain/Denham is ultimately academic.

I think that in terms of political positioning - anti-war, sceptical on the Reid agenda, progressive on social policy but still broadly credible on economics - Denham is the obvious candidate, but he lacks the necessary public profile.  The only person on the left with this sort of profile is Ken, and he isn't currently an MP.  As for Hain...he hasn't really carved out a distinctive enough position.  If he had resigned along with Robin, I think he'd have emerged as a Heseltine figure by now.  But Hain has consistently chosen the path of compromise rather than the path of principle in all his dealings with New Labour.

So the short answer to this one is:  there's no easy answer.  But for what it's worth, I am still convinced that Gordon the Leader will turn out to be more progressive, both on social policy and the constitution, than Gordon the candidate.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#13)

I wish I could believe that Gordon will turn out to be more radical as PM. Unfortunately, there is absolutely no evidence to support this. Indeed in his recent Guildhall speech Gordon goes even further in his support of global capitalism than ever before.
As for Peter Hain, he was a rabid supporter of the Iraq war. He won't stand against Gordon because it will put his cabinet seat in jeopardy when Gordon wins. Hain has his eyes firmly fixed on the Deputy Leadership. One thing the left can do is to spoil his chances in that contest because he will undoubtedly try to run as the left, grassroots, pro trade union link candidate. Let us at least put paid to that lie.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#17)

I have to say if Denham put his name forward I would be among the first to back him. His principled and dignified resignation and thoughtful contributions to policy since are examples of how politics should be conducted.

Unlike some he can voice constructive criticism while still remembering his colleagues are actually in the same party. Even if he lost the leadership election he would make a valuable contribution to the political debate.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#18)

I think I would be tempted to agree!

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#16)


Hi - I don't think I was treating you as being hostile.  It's hard to convey tone of voice in an email I suppose, but I was merely trying to underline why I disagreed with the idea of finding a tainted centre-left figure and splitting the left around them.

If I can make it quite clear - if left groupings in the Labour Party had decided that they did not believe there was a Campaign Group parliamentarian who could launch this campaign, I personally would have found it quite easy to support someone like Michael Meacher or Glenda Jackson (despite the former's tardiness in leaving the Cabinet and the latter's slightly dubious positions earlier in the government's history).  Despite once having been quite a fan of Peter Hain and advocated him as a potential future leadership contender, nothing now could induce me to support him.  

But it would now be a disaster for the left to champion a 'centre left' figure for these purposes.  Why?  Because hundreds of activists have - in my view quite rightly - declared (and, in the LRC, voted) in support of John McDonnell and far more damaging than 'losing and losing badly' (though as I have said elsewhere I don't concede that will be the result at all) would be a divided left.  One of the reasons the left have shied away from leadership/deputy leadership contests for nearly twenty years (and indeed have been very unsure about them for 25 years) is the damage they CAN do.  Think of the enormous hostility that the Kinnockite abandonment of Benn bred in 81.  Not only did it determine the result of the election, it led to a complete realignment of the left.

This is a fantastic opportunity for the left and, I would argue, for all socialists in the Labour Party, but the left has to hold its nerve.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#19)

I am a bit late to this debate so apologise.

But here goes. If McDonnel were to be knocked out early under the radar of the media and a soft left candidate go through to the membership and say win 40% and Brown 60% then that might be better than in McDonnel went through and only won 10% to Brown's 90. (Not saying that that will happen but taking on the premise). In the kind of leadership election we are talking about where there are two rounds- MPs followed by Members- the first round split wouldn't matter so long as it was amicable. Think of the Tory modernisers who had Cameron, Duncan and possibly Rifkind and Clarke- nobody remembers the other three as they all fell early uniting behind Cameron. The same could happen with a softleft or hard left candidate who stood but it seemed had no chance. Indeed the more standing the more people on the left who get media profiles and the better leftwing MPs can make a decision on who is best placed to win. I don't think that leadership elections should be decided by who runs first so bring on a soft left candidate.

Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#20)

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Re: We need a different challenger to Brown (#21)

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