UK Economy accelerates in the Second Quarter

The economy continues to grow above trend.

From the FT:

The UK economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in the second quarter, driven by robust service sector growth, according to official data released on Friday.

In its preliminary calculation of gross domestic product, the Office for National Statistics said output expanded by 0.8 per cent between the beginning of April and the end of June, compared with the previous quarter. Against the same period a year ago output grew by 2.6 per cent.

The numbers suggest the UK economy is growing above its long-term trend rate.

..............The main driver of growth was the service sector, which grew by 1 per cent in the second quarter and which accounts for about 74 per cent of the nation's economy. Within services the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector was particularly strong, growing by 1.2 per cent, a surge the ONS said was caused by accelerating activity among retailers. The contribution of the High Street to growth reflects the World Cup related shopping boom and a further football effect could be seen in sturdy growth in public houses and bars as fans fuelled their support then drowned their sorrows.

..............."Above-trend growth in the second quarter will boost expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates as early as August," said Mr Archer [of Global Insight]. "However, given the significant uncertainties about the longer-term growth outlook and the current continuing lack of evidence that high energy prices are having marked second-round inflationary effects, we suspect that the Bank of England will continue to hold fire on interest rates in the near term at least.


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Re: UK Economy accelerates in the Second Quarter (#1)

This is great news but I'm starting to wonder if we might be entering a post-economics politics. The economy has been doing to well for so long - do people just presume it will contine regardless? Does this negate a major Labour trump-card?

Re: UK Economy accelerates in the Second Quarter (#2)

There is a tendency for some - especially twenty-somethings who've known nothing else, to assume it's easy-peasy to keep the economy going. I think late thirty-somethings like myself who experience the Tory recession of 1992 first-hand are less likely to take it for granted.    

Tories seem to be torn with assuming that of course they'll be able to produce similar growth, while at the same time having no idea how we've done it and simultaneously rubbishing our achievement. A look at the ConHome site shows that they think the economy is in deep trouble because unemployment is at 5.4%. Never mind that they never ever achieved unemployment this low during their 18 years in office, and that unemployment is a lagging indicator - it reflects economic conditions of a year to 18 months ago, when the economy was slowing. I expect unemployment to rise gently up to the third quarter this year, peak and start to fall as the effects of the current economic acceleration feed in.

That said, there are global headwinds coming up. The US economy looks like it is slowing - one good aspect of this is that the price of oil should drop (it always does when the huge American economy slows down). That should help the inflation figures. But the trick is to make sure that our economy doesn't get pulled down by the American slowdown.  

If Gordon Brown pulls this off, he'll be the greatest chancellor Britain has ever had. In many ways this is an unique era, based on having two very clever people in the treasury - Gordon Brown and Ed Balls. When they retire in 10-15 years time, and some other less worthy person takes over, we'll look back at this era of stability with nostalgia.

Re: UK Economy accelerates in the Second Quarter (#3)

A very good article by the Guardian's Economics Editor Larry Elliott in yesterday's Guardian:

Those who think it's all over for Labour have forgotten what a real crisis is like
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,,1827523,00.html