New ICM poll - Tory lead increases

steppenwolff Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 12:09:40 AM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

The latest ICM poll for the News of the World shows that David Cameron and the Conservative Party have pulled further ahead of Labour



Con - 39 (+2)
Lab - 30 (-2)
LD - 20 (-2)

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New ICM poll - Tory lead increases | 12 comments (12 topical)

Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#1)

by MM on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 03:25:47 AM GMT

The monthly YouGov poll for the Telegraph: (30/11/06)
Con 37%
Lab 32%
LDem 16%
Others 15%

Communicate Research poll in Tuesday's Independent: (28/11/06)
Lab 36%
Con 34%
LDem 17

MORI's monthly poll in last week's Observer: (26/11/06)
Con 35%
Lab 33%
LDem 20%

ICM November Poll for Guardian: (19/11/06)
Con 37%
Lab 32%
LDem 22%

Is it not normal politics for the opposition to be in the lead, especially when a party has been in power for a long period of time.  I'm only 22, so do'nt recall the 80s but I do know that mid-term Labour did enjoy poll leads and did not go on and win elections.  So should the Government panic?  I think the New Statesman Political Editor sums it up rather well:

A two-election strategy for Labour's demise
http://www.newstatesman.com/200612040012


Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#2)

by steppenwolff on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 04:47:30 AM GMT

It is not normal for the Conservative Party to be consistently in the lead - they have beenflatlining at 32% for 15 years.


[ Parent ]

Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#3)

by MM on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 06:28:10 PM GMT

There are a number of factors for that i.e Black Wednesday, Tory party divisions over Europe, Tory leaders such as Major, Hague, IDS, Howard.  Also Labour has been generally united which the public likes and Blair has been a popular leader.  But that has been rather unique, normal politics is what we see now the opposition ahead in the polls because the Govt/establishment is having to take unpopular decisions etc.  I do'nt see the need to panic because normal service has been resumed.


[ Parent ]

Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#4)

by MM on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 07:05:39 PM GMT

News of the World reports the ICM poll rather negativly for Cameron:

- Who would make the best PM:
Gordon Brown: 29%
David Cameron: 25%
John Reid: 8%
Ming Campbell: 5%
None: 14%
Don't Know: 19%

- I am more likely to vote Tory because of David Cameron:
Disagree: 54%
Agree: 38%
Do'nt know: 8%

'Nightmare for Cam the Cuddly'
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/story_pages/news/news2.shtml

Breakdown of Brown v Cameron:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2006/notw%20-%20cameron%20v%20brown%20feb06/notw%20-%20brown%20 vs%20cameron%20-%20feb06.asp


Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#5)

by MM on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 07:37:33 PM GMT

Brown in the lead:
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/tm_headline=brown-in-the-lead-%26method=full%26objectid=18200725% 26siteid=62484-name_page.html


Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#6)

by MM on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:41:19 PM GMT

Cameron's poll ratings suffer due to the 'Toynbee factor'
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,1962803,00.html
(Is everything so great for the Tory leader as the ICM poll implies?)

Cameron faces barrage of 'friendly' fire
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,1962998,00.html
(Interesting piece about Cameron's relationship with the various newspapers)


Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#7)

by Loz on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 09:50:55 PM GMT

We should all just be patient.

How different will it be a year from now?

If as I accept there is no chance of this happening, Brown were to call a snap election, just imagine how potentially off guard Cameron would be caught.

Seriously, they have next to no policies at all.

It might not even have to be a snap election, I'm quite certain that policy wise, its going to be yet another disaster for the Tories.

Certainly will be interesting either way.


Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#8)

by flyingrat on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 10:31:48 PM GMT

Interesting to watch the Tories over the next two years.

Whatever Cameron says or spins, he has no natural constituency within the ranks of the Tories. Should there be a challenge to his leftward drift the old knives will come out, as sharp as ever.

The Tory Party remains a party of an older membership, rooted in reactionary politics and barely hidden Thatcherism. Eventually Cameron's changes will prove to be his undoing as the likes of Tebbitt go on the offensive, with the odious David Davis acting as leader-in-waiting for the hard right faction. Davis is ready and waiting for Cameron to fumble.

All Labour need do is survive the current turmoil a little longer, then regroup under the new leadership and watch Cameron be assasinated from within his own ranks. If the Saudi bribe and slush scandal breaks that will also help matters along nicely as it will cut to the core of the phony Tory image and tarnish the Thatcher family by association.


Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#12)

by Andrea on Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 06:43:23 PM GMT

It seems that the NOTW didn't report the correct "headline" figures of the ICM poll. It was 39/31/20. So a little better for Labour.


Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#14)

by MM on Tue Dec 05, 2006 at 06:36:42 PM GMT

None the less it was interesting how NOTW reported the poll, it could have had headlines saying that the Tories have a lead over Labour.  Instead it picked out polling data from the Brown v Cameron poll it conducted and choose to lead with that.  


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Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#15)

by Andrea on Tue Dec 05, 2006 at 07:57:27 PM GMT

They clearly took a pro Brown-anti DC line in that piece.


[ Parent ]

Re: New ICM poll - Tory lead increases (#13)

by MM on Tue Dec 05, 2006 at 06:32:40 PM GMT

One year on and none the wiser
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/lance_price/2006/12/one_year_on_and_none_the_wiser.html

Lance Price (Alastair Campbell's former deputy) offers some positive spin about Labour's chances v Cameron.


New ICM poll - Tory lead increases | 12 comments (12 topical)