North Korea joins the club

Jag Singh Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 05:06:09 AM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

It's official, at least from the North Korean standpoint. The DPRK has long claimed to have nuclear weapons, but had never before performed a known test to prove its arsenal - until just a few hours ago. The US has threatened an unspecified, but "severe," response, and though the KCNA claims that it was a successful test of the country's deterrent capabilities, it also carefully mentioned that this test brought it one step closer to its ultimate goal of establishing a Great Socialist Nation, or in other words, a Korean peninsula run by Kim Jong-il.


So where do we stand on this issue? Is doing nothing (as we have been for several years now) the best option? Is our government's nebulous stance the way forward? The DPRK's leitmotif that is Kim Jong-il has always been described as a "maniacal" and "crazy" leader, but with our armed forces facing both troop and equipment shortages, can we actually lend any credibility to our arguments against a regime that is on the brink of collapse on its own accord? Do we even need to, considering that the level of corruption within their secret police is bound to be a harbinger of bad things for the Kim regime?






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North Korea joins the club | 19 comments (19 topical)

Re: North Korea joins the club (#1)

by Juvenal on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 07:03:49 AM GMT

North Korea is a nightmare issue from every angle.  The size of its population, and the extent of its backwardness (nuclear and ballistic missile science aside) means that any full scale breakdown of the economy or state would put intolerable pressure on South Korea and, to a lesser extent, China.  So, although no one likes the regime, there is no obvious way of removing it peacefully.  And there is simply no viable military option (especially not now).  The only solution proffered by the international community, therefore, is to be reasonably nice to the regime and do nothing to provoke them into doing anything stupid.

So, when diplomatic efforts to get North Korea to play seem a little lame, it's because there is no obvious alternative strategy.


Re: North Korea joins the club (#2)

by HOWLERMONKEY on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 07:42:40 AM GMT

The first issue is to establish if the initial explosion off truly of a nuclear nature in the first place. The reason for this is when Pakistan first claimed a nuclear detonation there was considerable doubt within the scientific community due to the nature of the seismic responses recorded in the region.
The second is just what does the DPRK intend to do with its eight reported nuclear bombs. Are they to deploy a missile base system?, an aircraft deployed weapon or a ground-based predeployed weapon in a strategic target?.( a bomb in a bag in Seoul )

Then there is the military option,( The nightmare scenario) if there is there will for it. A ground invasion of the North would be very easily defended due to the topography of the central mountain ranges.  It's also unlikely that a shock and awe air campaign would have much effect on such a militaristicly paranoid state, Both these options will almost certainly prompt it to deploy its nuclear weapons.

 The 4th point is the diplomatic response to the situation. The first is to do nothing and to see if the regime collapses under its own inertia. Both Hu and Abe have met within the last few days and appear to have reached an agreement on the subject  according to the Japanese press, (Ashish Shimbun / Tokyo Times.)  There is little information on their discussions The rest of the Far Eastern diplomatic community remain tight lipped. I feel that they will remain that way. Watch this space for future developments,or not as the case may be.


Re: North Korea joins the club (#3)

by Anonymous on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 08:59:19 AM GMT

Further nuclear proliferation is inevitable as long as the established nuclear powers ignore their obligations to disarm.

The first thing the UK should do in response to this terrible development is ditch all thought of replacing Trident and start decommissioning all our nuclear arms.


Re: North Korea joins the club (#4)

by Juvenal on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 09:32:29 AM GMT

I cannot see how decommissioning our nuclear weapons in direct response to a totalitarian dictatorship's acquisition of the same is going to do anyone any good.  Hopelessly flawed argument.


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#5)

by HOWLERMONKEY on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 09:48:44 AM GMT

I aggree.


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#6)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 09:57:00 AM GMT

I agree with Anon(but which one?) on both points.
We already have the destructive power within our arsenals to destroy the world 100 times over, and the means of delivery so we don't need to waste money on Trident. The only thing we can do is sit tight and see how it pans out. Kim is really only threatening China, not us, and his is a weapon is a deterrent ( funny, they all say that in cluding the West) which means that China would take out Korea if Kim were ever foolish enough to use it. And more effort needs to go into decommisioning.


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#8)

by Juvenal on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 10:29:13 AM GMT

Even if it's true, to argue that North Korea is 'only' threatening China suggests that no UK interests will be harmed by a nuclear confrontation in Asia.  The economic and environmental effects would be catastrophic for the entire world.

The real concern is North Korea's well-documented willingness to sell its military technology and hardware to other states.  A nuclear device mounted on a Taepodong missile based in Iran - an existing client for North Korea's missiles - would directly threaten the UK.


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#11)

by HOWLERMONKEY on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 11:07:44 AM GMT

Technically this is still a problem for the U.N. as the ceasefire his still under their auspices. But this still is a great concern to Russia, (Military area east, and kamchatka)  Japan, and South Korea, as well as the USA due to the latest long-range missile tested in north Korea, as this has the potential to hit the western seaboard of America.

This is Returs analysis.
Seoul and Beijing -- leery of instability on the Korea peninsula -- have previously cautioned against backing the North into a corner, but Tokyo backs a hard line towards Pyongyang.

However, all three agree Pyongyang should end its 11-month boycott of six-nation talks on ending its nuclear arms programme.

"I don't think North Korea is trying (for) an escalation that could lead to a military confrontation. ... I think they're trying to respond from a corner," former U.N. weapons inspector David Albright told CNN television.

North Korea announced its intention to test a nuclear device last week, saying its hand had been forced by what it called U.S. threats of nuclear war and economic sanctions. But it said it would not be the first to use a nuclear weapon.

"North Korea is using this claim as a bargaining chip to gain leverage so that Washington will take them seriously," said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political analyst at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences and a former Indonesian presidential adviser.

Zhang Liangui, an expert on North Korea at the Central Party School, a top think-tank in Beijing, said it was unlikely Japan would seek to become a nuclear weapons state, because of U.S. opposition, but other states may be encouraged to proliferate.

"It will be like America, where everybody thinks he has the right to own a gun," he said. "The first country to be encouraged by this will be Iran, and then other countries in the Middle East."


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#7)

by Mark Wadsworth on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 10:26:47 AM GMT

There is nothing we can do about this, it is up to China, South Korea and Japan to sort this out.


Re: North Korea joins the club (#9)

by Juvenal on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 10:31:50 AM GMT

...and the US, because of its presence in South Korea.  Whether that improves the chances of a diplomatic resolution or worsens them, I'm not sure.


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#10)

by swatantra on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 11:06:12 AM GMT

What perfect timing, a new UN Secretary-General from S.Korea. Perhaps he could use his influence a bit. We know that both N and S want better realations. What a relief to see the emphasis switch from the Middle East and Africa to the South China Sea, and rightly so for that is the region of vast economic growth, and of course India, which will the shape this century. Forget about the Middle East, all it is an oil reservoir.  


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#12)

by HOWLERMONKEY on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 11:09:50 AM GMT

What a relief to see the emphasis switch from the Middle East and Africa to the South China Sea,

South China Sea???


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#16)

by swatantra on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 09:31:21 AM GMT

That should be East China Sea; had the map the wrong way up.


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#17)

by Glass House on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 12:30:04 PM GMT

lol


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#18)

by HOWLERMONKEY on Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 05:24:12 PM GMT

Fair-nough


[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea joins the club (#13)

by flyingrat on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 07:51:21 PM GMT

Amazing that the timing fits perfectly with Karl Rove's promised "October Surprise", to bolster Republican votes in the forthcoming US elections.

Anyone else feel as cynical as I do? Is the CIA involved here?


Re: North Korea joins the club (#14)

by HOWLERMONKEY on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 09:40:34 PM GMT

No..The CIA are to stupid to do that..

Further analysis  shows that this event will completely kill all of the six way arms proliferation talks which have been stalled for last six months.

That the plutonium was processed from spent fuel rods from the 5000 KW. graphite modified reactor at Yougbyong.

This follows launching of two Scud missiles and one Tapodong-2 on July 5th this year.

Subsequent reports from "Ashi" speculate upon the possibility of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea by  Japanese forces....


Re: North Korea joins the club (#15)

by TimSwift on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 09:53:33 PM GMT

Congratulations to 'flying rat' for the introduction of conspiracy theories.

Is it just me, or is it time for a new version of Godwin's Law?


Re: North Korea joins the club (#19)

by HOWLERMONKEY on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 04:05:01 PM GMT

This is from Mick Hartley.
 ..http://mickhartley.typepad.com/blog/2006/10/placating_the_m.html

more on the problems of a collapsing regime:

As the United Nations Security Council mulls sanctions against North Korea, it must consider one question that could affect the stability of North Asia for years to come: Would the collapse of Kim Jong Il's government prove more dangerous than leaving him in charge of a nuclear-armed state?
The prospect of regime change in Pyongyang may cheer many in Washington who view Mr. Kim as running a militarist regime that has tortured and starved its own people and traded missiles to Pakistan, Iran, Syria and others. But turmoil in North Korea could damage the economies of China and South Korea, set off a refugee crisis and lead to military conflict.


North Korea joins the club | 19 comments (19 topical)