Two new opportunities for women candidates

alexhilton Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 06:34:00 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

Kenilworth and Southam (new seat following Boundary Changes)
Notionally held by: Con
Notional majority: 9,784
Notional 2nd place: Lab
All women shortlist? Yes
Deadline for applications: 13 October
Shortlisting meeting: 18 November
Hustings meeting: 2 December

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Seat: Gravesham
Currently held by: Con
Majority: 654
2nd place: Lab
All women shortlist? Yes
Deadline for applications: 11 October
Shortlisting meeting: 4 November
Hustings meeting: 21 January




I do not understand the point of an all-woman shortlist in a seat with a notional Tory majority of 9,784 (Kenilworth and Southam above). Surely AWS is about getting women into parliament - not getting them on unlikely ballot papers!

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Two new opportunities for women candidates | 15 comments (15 topical)

Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#1)

by Andrea on Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 06:49:47 PM GMT

"Kenilworth and Southam (new seat following Boundary Changes)
Notionally held by: Con
Notional majority: 9,784
Notional 2nd place: Lab"

are those notional majorities produced by the party?


Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#2)

by alexhilton on Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 07:37:52 PM GMT

Yes, I have seen other figures elsewhere.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#3)

by Andrea on Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 08:09:55 PM GMT

Thanks.
Whatever the right figures are, Kenilworth and Southam is a safe Con seat and so no chance for the Labour candidate (it looks like a seat that could have stayed Tory even in 1997).


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#5)

by mjwhel on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:08:17 AM GMT

While Gravesham is a winnable seat and I'm surprised we lost it last time Kenilworth and Southam is a hopeless case though in he process has given us a Labour gain in Rugby and increased our majority significantly in Warwick and Leamington. A very bizzare seat to select now, cannot see it be overwhelmed with applicants.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#6)

by Andrea on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 08:44:09 AM GMT

yes, good point...it would have been probably more useful to select the Rugby candidate


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#7)

by nickparrott on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:50:11 PM GMT

They'll probably have to run the trigger ballot in Nuneaton first, as some of the Nuneaton wards have moved into the new Rugby seat.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#9)

by nickparrott on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:57:40 PM GMT

The new Rugby seat is winnable but it is by no means safe. Wells gives it a Lab maj of 3843 - a 4.1% Lab-Con swing is enough for the Tories to get it next time, in theory at least.

If the Tories were the largest party, they should take Rugby, which is well inside the top hundred Tory target seats.

Warwick & Leam looks a lot healthier with a Lab maj of 5240 and the Tories needing a swing of 6.4% to capture it.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#10)

by Andrea on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 07:46:20 PM GMT

"The new Rugby seat is winnable but it is by no means safe. Wells gives it a Lab maj of 3843 - a 4.1% Lab-Con swing is enough for the Tories to get it next time, in theory at least. "

That's why I hoped in an early selection in Rugby. It's a seat that Labour should hold.

But you've already replied about why they hadn't done it.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#8)

by nickparrott on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:52:00 PM GMT

Wells lists the notional Con maj as 12996 (29.1%) which makes it an absolutely rock solid Tory seat, with the Lib Dems breathing down Labour's neck for second place.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#11)

by Andrea on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 07:48:46 PM GMT

The tories have not put it up for selection yet (unlike many of the other newly created safe seats). I suppose that's because the newly elected MP for Rugby & Kenilworth will go for it.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#12)

by nickparrott on Thu Oct 05, 2006 at 10:15:17 AM GMT

I feel sure that Jeremy Wright will indeed go for it, thus giving Labour in Rugby a couple of years to campaign against their absentee Tory MP.

If the Tories have any sense they'll probably select the two seats at roughly the same time so that they have someone up and running in Rugby to fill that gap. I reckon Mark Pawsey, son of the former Tory MP, local councillor and A-lister, might go for it, but there will probably be competition for what the Tories will fancy as a target marginal seat.

Having said that, Pawsey might fancy another crack at Nuneaton, which is also looking vulnerable now, though the boundary change actually dumps some Tory areas in to Rugby, which may help Bill Olner out.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#13)

by Andrea on Thu Oct 05, 2006 at 11:16:13 AM GMT

"If the Tories have any sense they'll probably select the two seats at roughly the same time so that they have someone up and running in Rugby to fill that gap"

Conservative CCHQ tends to make some bizarre choices in picking up the seats up for selection....they put in the same trance safe newly created seats and seats with 14% LD majorities and then they wonder why they got many applicants for the safe seats and very few for the 14% LD majorities.


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Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#4)

by markmcdonald on Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 08:25:58 PM GMT

My opinions regarding the potentially discriminatory approach of Labour's selection policies are well known so I will not repeat them here. I just wonder how many good candidates will never get the opportunity to stand because of AWS. In the past I have supported AWS but I am beginning to wonder whether the whole thing is just a farce and only turns-off good male candidates and patronises women. I also wonder whether Sedgefield and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath would have been AWS under the current system!


Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#14)

by Anonymous on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 09:06:40 AM GMT

There is a by-election in the new seat of Kenilworth and Southam in November and Labour are not even standing a candidate, which suggests that even by going for a selection the local party are not serious.

Colin


Re: Two new opportunities for women candidates (#15)

by esteban on Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 01:53:36 PM GMT

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Two new opportunities for women candidates | 15 comments (15 topical)